ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

Latest Euro run disagrees with those percentages.

If future Harvey can reach hurricane strength in the southern Gulf, and a trough is in place like some models are forecasting, that's when the central Gulf coast comes into play. Waters are warm...

no, it doesn't. The chance of this passing within 125 miles of the central Gulf coast is between 2 and 5 percent at the present time

furthermore, 6Z HWRF has a cat 3, and it shifted south into Tampico. Stronger storm does not necessarily mean a more northward storm

[Alyono]

Latest Euro run disagrees with those percentages.

If future Harvey can reach hurricane strength in the southern Gulf, and a trough is in place like some models are forecasting, that's when the central Gulf coast comes into play. Waters are warm...

no, it doesn't. The chance of this passing within 125 miles of the central Gulf coast is between 2 and 5 percent at the present time

furthermore, 6Z HWRF has a cat 3, and it shifted south into Tampico. Stronger storm does not necessarily mean a more northward storm

I will get the ensembles soon and then recalculate the probabilities

[HurricaneBrain]

Cool, thanks Alyono.

Latest Euro run disagrees with those percentages.

no, it doesn't. The chance of this passing within 125 miles of the central Gulf coast is between 2 and 5 percent at the present time

furthermore, 6Z HWRF has a cat 3, and it shifted south into Tampico. Stronger storm does not necessarily mean a more northward storm

I will get the ensembles soon and then recalculate the probabilities

[Alyono]

Cool, thanks Alyono.

Latest Euro run disagrees with those percentages.

I will get the ensembles soon and then recalculate the probabilities

But no promises on the actual values. Clients tend to pay good money for those

[Frank P]

Latest vis sat loops gives the impression that the overall cloud mass of ex Harvey is heading off to the NW... since there really is not a definable center this could have some impact as to where the center finally locates once it enters the Gulf or BOC.. which would certainly impact future model runs.. nothing is really that certain right now with the system except there is a strong possibility that copious amounts of rain most likely will impact some region of the US.. could be a very interesting week ahead..

[TheStormExpert]

Harvey is sure catching my attention now that it is looking more and more like this will be a U.S. threat over the next 5-10 days. Texas folks better look over their hurricane plans just incase!

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Harvey looks to be developing a LLC

[Hammy]

Harvey looks to be developing a LLC

Surface obs seem to verify this--winds on Honduran coast have been out of the SW or NW for awhile now. Still probably broad, so I'm not sure exactly where, but it appears the surface vorticity and upper high have finally aligned as well.

[Nimbus]

Harvey looks to be developing a LLC

Not sure where you see that?

The convection gives the illusion that a center might spin up closer to Cozumel than Belize but that is just blob watching.

Any pressure or wind readings that support a LLC formation?

[Frank P]

Harvey looks to be developing a LLC

Not sure where you see that?

The convection gives the illusion that a center might spin up closer to Cozumel than Belize but that is just blob watching.

Any pressure or wind readings that support a LLC formation?

Looking at the sat loops you can't discern a llc... not with my eyes... not yet that is...

[ROCK]

oh its consolidating right now probably bc of land interaction. Will have to wait to remerge to see if he takes off.....water are hottest in the basin right now in the GOM...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Vorticity isnt quite stacked, its also still a bit stretched out

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Harvey looks to be developing a LLC

Surface obs seem to verify this--winds on Honduran coast have been out of the SW or NW for awhile now. Still probably broad, so I'm not sure exactly where, but it appears the surface vorticity and upper high have finally aligned as well.

Yeah some kind of lower level spin is definitely developing some NW and SW winds prove that

[cycloneye]

@JimCantore
Starting to get that curvy look...
#harvey

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/899742167928893441

[ROCK]

I would also not rule out center relos after emerging into the GOM....seen it happen way to many times...TA and even SW LA is in play attm IMO....

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I would also not rule out center relos after emerging into the GOM....seen it happen way to many times...TA and even SW LA is in play attm IMO....

Anywhere from Tampico to Corpus christi is in play Louisiana is not in play !

[Nimbus]

Is there somewhere better to get high resolution imagery other than the goes 16 at colostate.edu?
It would be easy to miss the circulation, off Cozumel hard to tell if that is mid level?

[TheStormExpert]

Harvey looks to be developing a LLC

Surface obs seem to verify this--winds on Honduran coast have been out of the SW or NW for awhile now. Still probably broad, so I'm not sure exactly where, but it appears the surface vorticity and upper high have finally aligned as well.

Yeah some kind of lower level spin is definitely developing some NW and SW winds prove that

If I had to guess I'd say around 19°N, 86°W.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Surface obs seem to verify this--winds on Honduran coast have been out of the SW or NW for awhile now. Still probably broad, so I'm not sure exactly where, but it appears the surface vorticity and upper high have finally aligned as well.

Yeah some kind of lower level spin is definitely developing some NW and SW winds prove that

If I had to guess I'd say around 19°N, 86°W.

Not at 19N that is more mid level

[gatorcane]

Wow this looks like a tremendous amount of moisture heading for the BOC/WGOM. Let's hope Harvey does not decide to stay more offshore in the WGOM and ramp up even more. Stay safe fellow Texans: