ATL: TEN - Models

[jlauderdal]

What is the GFS doing?

Looping?

anything stalled at 79w needs our full attention..

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[Blown Away]

Clearly the 18z GFS is showing an improving vorticity @144 hrs near SFL, which is new development in days...

[AutoPenalti]

Would be awesome if someone posted pics.

I retract that statement.

[gatorcane]

00Z Guidance:

[gatorcane]

SHIPS has backed off on the shear some. Not great conditions but marginally conducive:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17081 ... _ships.txt

[Sciencerocks]

SHIPS has backed off on the shear some. Not great conditions but marginally conducive:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17081 ... _ships.txt

Within my opinion this has a very good chance at developing and looks about 75% of the way there already.

[tolakram]

Here's the GFS 255K GIF. Upper lows in color, surface features are the purple isobars. You can see how the GFS things the next upper low will move down and then west, getting tangled up with 92L. .... and then that other low comes out of nowhere.

[TheStormExpert]

SHIPS has backed off on the shear some. Not great conditions but marginally conducive:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17081 ... _ships.txt

Within my opinion this has a very good chance at developing and looks about 75% of the way there already.

Really wouldn't trust SHIPS at all since it usually isn't all that good prior to TC genesis, and with the GFS doing extremely poorly this season it has been MUCH worse.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS Rolling...looks a bit better defined through 42 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

96 Hours...00z next Wednesday, onshore South Florida, better defined than 18z

[SouthFLTropics]

108 Hours, just offshore, SW FLA

[Bocadude85]

96 Hours...00z next Wednesday, onshore South Florida, better defined than 18z

That's the most defined vort that the GFS has shown in MANY runs.

[Steve]

Canadian is 1001mb messing around the Bahamas at 90 hours. Numerous runs have shown a stall, dive or loop near there. So caught by a high or temporarily influenced by a trough pulling at it from the north. If the earlier EC is right with the building ridge back in off the Atlantic days 4-5 to 7, that could be closer to FL. I think CMC will turn it north though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1900&fh=90

[Steve]

120 hours Canadian dives a bit South to bring S FL dangerously close to 987 which is 14mb in 30 hours. Also it's got Harvey coming off the Yucatán slightly farther north.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=120

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC at 120 meandering in the Bahamas

[SouthFLTropics]

Of note is how much slower the CMC is versus the GFS. GFS hasthis onshore by hour 96.

[caneseddy]

After the SW div, gets pulled north and at 186 is just off the Outer Banks

[SouthFLTropics]

Close, but no impact with Florida...trough digs and erodes the ridge.

[SouthFLTropics]

The CMC has been consistent with this dip to the south and then pulled North for quite a few runs now.

[Steve]

After the SW div, gets pulled north and at 186 is just off the Outer Banks

That high in the center of the US it had dropping into Illinois yesterday rather than rolling to the coast makes the difference. If it builds east and southeast, it has to come west. If that high stays west, there's an alley.