ATL: IRMA - Models

[GeneratorPower]

Looking at the 12z EURO from today, I see at 240 hours the model is calling for the obliteration of the Bahamas.

[chaser1]

I really don't like this possibility of Irma entering the Gulf, especially after this mess..

Would'nt THAT be the ultimate potential most tragic course it could possibly take?? 1st, a Cat 4 buzz saw through the Virgin Islands that lead up to a direct nearly direct hit on San Juan. Then, to pass a hairline just north of Dominican Republic then into the S.E. most Bahamas. After undergoing RI, passing directly over Nassau then a WNW motion as a borderline Cat 5 plowing into Miami/Coral Gables at a forward speed of 6 knots, and cutting across the state between Naples and Cape Coral. Then after stalling in the S.E. Gulf for a day with an ever increasing wind field, a slow march toward the N.E. Texas or Louisiana coast. Either way, the earmark of someone's really bad nightmare

[GeneratorPower]

The EURO today showing a marked shift south from yesterday's run at the same verification time.

[KWT]

FWIW, the Euro control run (which was very similar to the OP Euro through 240hr as was discussed) sends a major into Cape Cod.

I can't see the wind speeds, but winds at 850mbs (which probably won't too much higher than gusts at the surface) are suggestive of decent gusts into New York, in convective cells probably getting intothe 50-60mph range probably by that point.

[RL3AO]

Stop predicting pressures in here. This is the models thread. Those posts have been moved to the main thread.

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues to be quite erratic from run to run. But as pointed out above the Euro has been quite consistent with this system and where it thinks it will be not just in the medium range but long-range also. In fact it really has shifted south (left) over the past 5 runs which is not good news. Will continue to lean towards the ECMWF until we see some run to run consistency with the GFS.

[ConvergenceZone]

When does the next GFS model run come out again ?

[SouthFLTropics]

When does the next GFS model run come out again ?

Starts in about 5 minutes

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS initialized

[storm4u]

Coming out now

When does the next GFS model run come out again ?

[tolakram]

GFS off to a quick start.

[tolakram]

Pretty darn consistent with location, intensity keeps increasing.

[KWT]

Solid WNW motion between 06-30hrs on the 18z GFS, upto 18.5 by 36hrs. Lets see how much further north it gets it before the bend back WSW (providing that does happen, of course!)

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS seems to be a little slower.

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Most notable on this run of the GFS is that the low to the NW of Irma is further west. This could have big implications downstream.

[tolakram]

[sma10]

Most notable on this run of the GFS is that the low to the NW of Irma is further west. This could have big implications downstream.

Also, the separation between the two entities looks similar to the separation on the Euro run