ATL: IRMA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Odds of W shift happening again?

It's possible, it's one run of each.

[WeatherHoon]

Odds of W shift happening again?

I'd say slightly lower now that we're only 120 hours away from impacts to the U.S. Still could see some slight deviations to the West and maybe even slightly east.

[wxmann_91]

Also important to note that today's the first full day of sampling the piece of energy that will turn Irma. It's onshore now in the Pacific Northwest. That the models have changed quite suddenly and have reached a pseudo-consensus is not a coincidence.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I said Myrtle Beach this run. I wasn't that far off. I believe there is now consensus between the 3 major models, GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET.

[txwatcher91]

Odds of W shift happening again?

Models will probably make small adjustments west and east next few days but we are now entering the window where any shifts will be smaller. I expect models to stay with the idea of a east coast of Florida track or just offshore with landfall in SC.

[M3gaMatch]

Honestly we still have a long way to go so it's far from locked in. Just stay on alert, is all you can really do.

[MatthewsRevenge]

The way Irma is going, it's like it's spinning around on the states.

We won't know the real path until Friday.

[drezee]

Irma may influence Jose by allowing a needle ridge to build SE

[MatthewsRevenge]

If SC does hit landfall, I can expect Irma to finally fall apart but it'll be devastating for SC and southern NC for sure.

The models ARE making adjustments though... but even then Irma has a mind of her own. So yeah, it's gonna unfortunately continue to do this.

[northjaxpro]

Honestly we still have a long way to go so it's far from locked in. Just stay on alert, is all you can really do.

Exactly.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Huh? So where does it make landfall?

Euro has Irma falling apart by the time it gets to NC!

[sponger]

The way Irma is going, it's like it's spinning around on the states.

We won't know the real path until Friday.

That is the forecast I am waiting for!

[MatthewsRevenge]

The way Irma is going, it's like it's spinning around on the states.

We won't know the real path until Friday.

That is the forecast I am waiting for!

I'm not (since I'm from NC, well eastern NC, so we may not get the full brunt of Irma but I do expect lots of flooding and wind damage if it ever comes close to us) lmao

But hopefully, it'll manage to miss landfall on FL and fall apart after hitting either GA or SC, that is if models shift a little west next several runs during the next few days. We're definitely still a few days from complete consensus. That's my only calm about this whole thing.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I said Myrtle Beach this run. I wasn't that far off. I believe there is now consensus between the 3 major models, GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET.

I'm just glad that I'm not a total crackpot. Now to get plans to board up my business and move my father.

[brghteys1216]

I'm not sure if anyone noticed but Euro initialized at 961 for 00Z. What possible impact does that have?

[fci]

It’s pretty clear now that the only major model west of Florida is the Euro, and I fully expect it will adjust in line with the UK or close to it tonight. Overall the consensus from the 00z runs seems to be southeast and east coast of Florida either seeing landfall or a brush by the western eyewall. Definitely fits the synoptic setup and hopefully the track can be nailed down fairly well if the Euro comes on board around 2am.

Wesh 2 thinks 2 things can happen. It goes up the spine of Florida or stays off coast.

WESH changes their opinions more than the models change

[fci]

It’s pretty clear now that the only major model west of Florida is the Euro, and I fully expect it will adjust in line with the UK or close to it tonight. Overall the consensus from the 00z runs seems to be southeast and east coast of Florida either seeing landfall or a brush by the western eyewall. Definitely fits the synoptic setup and hopefully the track can be nailed down fairly well if the Euro comes on board around 2am.

It's the only major model west of Florida and so is the NHC forecast locations.

[fci]

Friday we will know what's going to happen

Honestly, we may not know until Saturday/Sunday

[MatthewsRevenge]

Y'all saw how the pressure went from 948 to 993 by the time it reached NC? So basically, SC will get chewed up and spit out by a Cat 4 Irma. It basically weakens to a tropical storm by the time it reaches up here. No way it remains a Cat 4 when it comes here. I assume it'll weaken to a Cat 3 or 2 if it does go east. I mean, didn't Matthew weaken significantly even though it didn't really make any landfall until it got to South Carolina if I recall.

[sponger]

Definitely looks NNW after Palm Beach.