ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurrMark]

Dr. M seems to find it unlikely Irma will ever regain Cat 5 intensity. He mentions it could even potentially weaken to a 3 from interaction with Cuba. At least a bit of good news there, as he was expecting Irma to ramp back up to 185 MPH Yesterday.

Link to this? If true and you're looking for at least something better, this is about all we're going to hear at this point. I really hope this holds true, but even a Cat 3 can be catastrophic in terms of damage and storm surge.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extremely-dangerous-cat-4-irma-headed-florida

He even says there's a 20% chance it could weaken to a 2.

Agree with him...after we saw with Ike, which was only over Cuba 6 hours, it was unable to ever recover, even though it had the whole Gulf to work with. I do not expect this to get any stronger than it is now.

[Aric Dunn]

outer eyewall convection finally reaching up through the CDO noce solid ring of cold cloud tops developing.. by 5pm we should have a very large clear eye..

IR channel 4

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

[boxwes]

Urgent, Please share this with those in Irma's path:

Anyone in the path of this Hurricane needs to download the "Firechat App" on iPhone and Android. The app is a messaging and communications tool that DOES NOT require a cellular connection. It works by creating a Bluetooth store-and-forward mesh network. The important thing to note is the more users with the app active in the area the better a message can travel out to reach a network connection. This could be a vital way to get messages out if the cell network is unusable.

For information or links to the app download visit: https://www.opengarden.com/firechat.html

Firechat's max range is 30-40 feet. It is only useful in highly dense urban areas.

[jdjaguar]

I wonder if Irma is going onshore of Cuba and struggles to get off the coast for 12-20 hrs. this could possible take her down to Cat 2 or weaker. Hopefully not to recover. Weaker storms tend to move more westerly as well. Possible good news for Miami, not so good for Cuba. Prayers for all involved.

Very quickly tuning in. Is that an NHC forecast for a possible landfall at about 165mph?

No sir, that is my personal forecast. Current NHC forecast, and remember that they have so many more worlds of skill than me, calls for a 145mph landfall. They are the experts, not me. Please remember that.

Impressive analysis, however so impressive it appears at first glance to be from the NHC.
Might be helpful to put at the top in all caps PERSONAL FORECAST

[Steve]

Agreed norva. He's got to present all the possibilities, and I understand that. There is a chance it could hit as a 2, but it would have had to have been massively disrupted by Cuba or mystery forces for that to happen. Likely a 5 south of Florida if it doesn't spend too much time over Cuba and probably coming in at a medium-high end Cat 4. FWIW, UKMET which has insisted on Cuba all along has dropped that on the 12Z run. Meanwhile, HMON (GFDL's replacement) now does spend time on the Northern Cuban Coast.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

It looks like Irma is hell bent on entering the gulf. If storm intensifies, can it continue a more westerly track for a longer period of time?

[Dave C]

outer eyewall convection finally reaching up through the CDO noce solid ring of cold cloud tops developing.. by 5pm we should have a very large clear eye..

IR channel 4

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

Cuba radar shows that little chunk of inner eyewall rotating around but outer eyewall looks real impressive with multiple feeder bands feeding it from the south.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/1WTFNews/status/906196650007384065

[Ntxw]

Important!!!

Due to the sensitivity and dangers of the situation if you are making a prediction that is NOT an NHC or NWS forecast please note the source or if it is personal opinion to avoid confusion. To all readers it is advised to look to your state and local authorities for accurate information as well as the NHC first.

[tolakram]

Please report posts instead of replying to them.

[Patrick99]

Think Cuba is having a significant effect on Irma even if it isn't making landfall yet. Cloud tops have warmed further and the eye looks ragged. Keep it up I say

[Extratropical94]

https://twitter.com/1WTFNews/status/906196650007384065

Good thing they waived fees on the turnpike and other toll roads to avoid creating even larger backups at the toll stations.

[KC7NEC]

Urgent, Please share this with those in Irma's path:

Anyone in the path of this Hurricane needs to download the "Firechat App" on iPhone and Android. The app is a messaging and communications tool that DOES NOT require a cellular connection. It works by creating a Bluetooth store-and-forward mesh network. The important thing to note is the more users with the app active in the area the better a message can travel out to reach a network connection. This could be a vital way to get messages out if the cell network is unusable.

For information or links to the app download visit: https://www.opengarden.com/firechat.html

Firechat's max range is 30-40 feet. It is only useful in highly dense urban areas.

Not completely accurate. If your message is not sent it is stored until it gets a connection. Yes, each connection is maybe 40" but once a connection is made it is stored on the receiving device until it makes a connection. There is a very long article online of it being used in major disaasters.

We tested monitoring of it in Oregon during the Eclipse as part of our emergency management work and were able to get messages from areas with zero cell service for miles. This included information on a major car accident that had backed up traffic on a highway. The message had "bounced" from car to car down the highway until a hit user in town 35 miles away with service and was delivered to the State EOC 100 miles away via a network.

It may not be instant communications but it does work and will get a message through.

[Langinbang187]

Irma's starting to look pretty rough.

[Meteorcane]

Think Cuba is having a significant effect on Irma even if it isn't making landfall yet. Cloud tops have warmed further and the eye looks ragged. Keep it up I say

Not seeing cloud tops warming at all on the 30 second 10.35micron channel, if anything they are cooling.

[meriland29]

What's going on with her EW right now?

[GCANE]

Looking at SREF, thankfully not seeing any significant tornado threat. Remaining mostly off shore.

[Langinbang187]

Cloud tops are really warming now. Cuba already effecting her?

[AutoPenalti]

Irma being hit hard right now. At least that's good news for us but terrible for Cuba.

[Hurricane_Apu]

Remember that we're near peak daytime solar radiation/heating and cloud tops will be warming even absent any other cause.