ATL: IRMA - Models

[Sanibel]

Kind of interesting when you look at the map and 5day NHC location and compare that to the models showing the storm EAST of Florida. Major disconnect here.

One will have to give by tomorrow night - right?

[brghteys1216]

Don't know if anyone posted this but FL's cone has been spread. I don't think this will change completely yet if the path is indeed eastward:



BUT if it does, consider west Florida to be spared. Still early.

Kind of interesting when you look at the map and 5day NHC location and compare that to the models showing the storm EAST of Florida. Major disconnect here.

Don't they only actually move the cone at 5a/p and 11a/p?

[stormlover2013]

Friday we will know what it's going to do !!

[NDG]

Here's 0z Euro, radar forecast loop.

[NDG]

0z Euro, wind gusts forecast for SE FL.
120+ mph wind gusts for metro areas from Miami on north to W Palm.
Like I said earlier hopefully the east trend continues.

[jlauderdal]

Don't know if anyone posted this but FL's cone has been spread. I don't think this will change completely yet if the path is indeed eastward:



BUT if it does, consider west Florida to be spared. Still early.

Kind of interesting when you look at the map and 5day NHC location and compare that to the models showing the storm EAST of Florida. Major disconnect here.

Don't they only actually move the cone at 5a/p and 11a/p?

they nudge it east, they have been on the euro all the way so they will follow suit but wont take it east of miami, last thing you want is for the models to start moving west again and have all that back and forth in the track like we do here , need to see a few more cycles and get some ensemble agreement to really think its going to our east, this is positbve unless it ends up being a direct hit coming from our south...bottom line, irma going to do what irma wants regardless of the 8 zillion models, posts, etc..continue on with your preps and dont fight over plywood

NORTH MIAMI, Fla. - A fight broke out Tuesday night at a Home Depot store in North Miami as customers sparred about plywood during Hurricane Irma preparations.

[NDG]

Kind of interesting when you look at the map and 5day NHC location and compare that to the models showing the storm EAST of Florida. Major disconnect here.

Don't they only actually move the cone at 5a/p and 11a/p?

they nudge it east, they have been on the euro all the way so they will follow suit but wont take it east of miami, last thing you want is for the models to start moving west again and have all that back and forth in the track like we do here , need to see a few more cycles and get some ensemble agreement to really think its going to our east, this is positbve unless it ends up being a direct hit coming from our south...bottom line, irma going to do what irma wants regardless of the 8 zillion models, posts, etc..continue on with your preps and dont fight over plywood

NORTH MIAMI, Fla. - A fight broke out Tuesday night at a Home Depot store in North Miami as customers sparred about plywood during Hurricane Irma preparations.

Yeah I agree with you, the shift to the right will not be that much first, they usually wait for continuing trends before shifting it further.

[jlauderdal]

Don't they only actually move the cone at 5a/p and 11a/p?

they nudge it east, they have been on the euro all the way so they will follow suit but wont take it east of miami, last thing you want is for the models to start moving west again and have all that back and forth in the track like we do here , need to see a few more cycles and get some ensemble agreement to really think its going to our east, this is positbve unless it ends up being a direct hit coming from our south...bottom line, irma going to do what irma wants regardless of the 8 zillion models, posts, etc..continue on with your preps and dont fight over plywood

NORTH MIAMI, Fla. - A fight broke out Tuesday night at a Home Depot store in North Miami as customers sparred about plywood during Hurricane Irma preparations.

Yeah I agree with you, the shift to the right will not be that much first, they usually wait for continuing trends before shifting it further.

we are getting close enough now that i would say if we see this east trend today in the next two gfs runs and the next euro run we are in very good shape in se florida for a miss to our right..we still get impacts of course but anything is good keeping it at least 50 miles away from the center

[NDG]

they nudge it east, they have been on the euro all the way so they will follow suit but wont take it east of miami, last thing you want is for the models to start moving west again and have all that back and forth in the track like we do here , need to see a few more cycles and get some ensemble agreement to really think its going to our east, this is positbve unless it ends up being a direct hit coming from our south...bottom line, irma going to do what irma wants regardless of the 8 zillion models, posts, etc..continue on with your preps and dont fight over plywood

NORTH MIAMI, Fla. - A fight broke out Tuesday night at a Home Depot store in North Miami as customers sparred about plywood during Hurricane Irma preparations.

Yeah I agree with you, the shift to the right will not be that much first, they usually wait for continuing trends before shifting it further.

we are getting close enough now that i would say if we see this east trend today in the next two gfs runs and the next euro run we are in very good shape in se florida for a miss to our right..we still get impacts of course but anything is good keeping it at least 50 miles away from the center

Yeah, today's GFS & Euro runs will tell us a lot about how much is Irma is going to possibly impact SE, we are now getting in the 4 day range with the Euro doing the best in that range. A few more miles to the east could make a big difference.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

What is causing the E shift in the models?

I mentioned it a few pages back but was ridiculed for pointing out the new changes on the models tonight. They all came in with a slightly slower trough and strong energy dipping down from the Midwest. This is a trend the NAM first picked up on and other models are finally catching on. This is why the NAM is quite useful for Synoptics inside 48 hours... Hope this helps!

Good tool here too use for the synoptic setup,ie the cold front and trough. Choose you layer too view
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=s_a ... verDim=100

http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/

[NC George]

I said Myrtle Beach this run. I wasn't that far off. I believe there is now consensus between the 3 major models, GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET.

I'm just glad that I'm not a total crackpot. Now to get plans to board up my business and move my father.

Nope, you're not. All of us who have lived in the NC/VA area for any length of time have seen storms take this path. Even with the shifts west I was mindful it could swing back our way. Still a couple of days to go until we get a first landfall, but the next 120 hours look clear with a turn east of Florida. This is starting to look a lot like Matthew.

Yes, I'm starting to think this looks like a classic Carolina hurricane, initially predicted to strike Florida, but missed just to the east a la Matthew and Floyd.

Disclaimer: This opinion is merely mine, and based upon amateur hypothesis. For official information, consult official government sources like the NHC.

[brghteys1216]

I'm just glad that I'm not a total crackpot. Now to get plans to board up my business and move my father.

Nope, you're not. All of us who have lived in the NC/VA area for any length of time have seen storms take this path. Even with the shifts west I was mindful it could swing back our way. Still a couple of days to go until we get a first landfall, but the next 120 hours look clear with a turn east of Florida. This is starting to look a lot like Matthew.

Yes, I'm starting to think this looks like a classic Carolina hurricane, initially predicted to strike Florida, but missed just to the east a la Matthew and Floyd.

Disclaimer: This opinion is merely mine, and based upon amateur hypothesis. For official information, consult official government sources like the NHC.

In my very amateur opinion, I think we may see some minor shifts back west starting with the 06Z. I just have a hard time believing that irma is going to pick up that much speed.

[ronjon]

Have to hand it to the much maligned GFS for sniffing out the shortwave in south Alabama yesterday that may spare Florida the worst of this monster. Still need a few more model cycles to confirm though. How often do we see the mightly Euro capitulate to the GFS 4-5 days out.

[Jevo]

It's about time the person that controls the Florida shield woke up. I almost had to cancel a Disney trip. Glad to see the Euro jump on the bandwagon. Storms are exciting, but anyone wishing this monster to their doorstep needs help. I've come to enjoy things like electricity and running water. Still a few days left but it appears consensus is finally taking place. Here's to hoping OTS is in the cards.... not likely, but there is hope. This is by no means an all clear for Florida, but I'm feeling a little bit better than I did yesterday, and who am I kidding I was never going to cancel my trip to Disney World.

[Vdogg]

Don't know if anyone posted this but FL's cone has been spread. I don't think this will change completely yet if the path is indeed eastward:



BUT if it does, consider west Florida to be spared. Still early.

Kind of interesting when you look at the map and 5day NHC location and compare that to the models showing the storm EAST of Florida. Major disconnect here.

They explained that they were to the left of guidance because they wanted to make sure that the models don't swing back. They're accounting for that fluctuation.

[brghteys1216]

06Z GFS Initialized.

[Vdogg]

06Z GFS Initialized.

Good initialization, right at 913.

[brghteys1216]

initialized at 924

[SFLcane]

By tommorow models could be east of Florida if this keeps up. If you asked me those early state of emergency calls for Florida could have been premature. Just to many days out and lots can and will change. Iam going with By Friday threat deminished for Florida we shall see.

[Vdogg]

initialized at 924

The image you posted above has 913, but now I see that's from the 00z run.