ATL: IRMA - Models

[Vdogg]

By tommorow models could be east of Florida if this keeps up. If you asked me those early state of emergency calls for Florida could have been premature. Just to many days out and lots can and will change. Iam going with By Friday threat deminished for Florida we shall see.

They weren't premature, people learned a lesson from Houston. You have to take a massive threat like this seriously.

[CronkPSU]

By tommorow models could be east of Florida if this keeps up. If you asked me those early state of emergency calls for Florida could have been premature. Just to many days out and lots can and will change. Iam going with By Friday threat deminished for Florida we shall see.

We are not talking about moving a dozen people, it takes days to do this level of evac necessary or South Florida, not premature at all for a Cat 5 hurricane

[NDG]

I'm just glad that I'm not a total crackpot. Now to get plans to board up my business and move my father.

Nope, you're not. All of us who have lived in the NC/VA area for any length of time have seen storms take this path. Even with the shifts west I was mindful it could swing back our way. Still a couple of days to go until we get a first landfall, but the next 120 hours look clear with a turn east of Florida. This is starting to look a lot like Matthew.

Yes, I'm starting to think this looks like a classic Carolina hurricane, initially predicted to strike Florida, but missed just to the east a la Matthew and Floyd.

Disclaimer: This opinion is merely mine, and based upon amateur hypothesis. For official information, consult official government sources like the NHC.

The good news is that both the GFS and Euro show Irma getting battered by shear dry air after passing FL before making landfall over S Carolina.

[brghteys1216]

42 hours ridging looks weaker than 00z.

[NDG]

By tommorow models could be east of Florida if this keeps up. If you asked me those early state of emergency calls for Florida could have been premature. Just to many days out and lots can and will change. Iam going with By Friday threat deminished for Florida we shall see.

They were not premature, IMO.
Don't forget about the FL Keys, they need extra time to evacuate.
We are within 96 hrs now of possible impact to SE FL, I really doubt that the models will shift much further east between now and then for FL to still get impacted by Irma.

[brghteys1216]

Early but I think we're going to see a W shift this run.

[chris_fit]

Slightly W and faster than 00Z

[Vdogg]

Nope, you're not. All of us who have lived in the NC/VA area for any length of time have seen storms take this path. Even with the shifts west I was mindful it could swing back our way. Still a couple of days to go until we get a first landfall, but the next 120 hours look clear with a turn east of Florida. This is starting to look a lot like Matthew.

Yes, I'm starting to think this looks like a classic Carolina hurricane, initially predicted to strike Florida, but missed just to the east a la Matthew and Floyd.

Disclaimer: This opinion is merely mine, and based upon amateur hypothesis. For official information, consult official government sources like the NHC.

The good news is that both the GFS and Euro show Irma getting battered by shear dry air after passing FL before making landfall over S Carolina.

They usually weaken when they approach the conus at our latitude, too much dry air. When we get strong storms, it's usually because they're moving fast.

[NDG]

42 hours ridging looks weaker than 00z.

Is actually a little stronger than previous two runs.

[NDG]

Early but I think we're going to see a W shift this run.

I agree.

[brghteys1216]

Thank you guys for pointing these things out! I'm learning a lot here and I really appreciate it.

[brghteys1216]

60 hours, ridging stronger, irma a bit W of 00Z.

[jlauderdal]

60 hours, ridging stronger, irma a bit W of 00Z.

stop it, we were doing so well overnight and now you are bringing a stronger ridge

[xironman]

The shortwave is still on its way.

[WeatherHoon]

60 hours, ridging stronger, irma a bit W of 00Z.

stop it, we were doing so well overnight and now you are bringing a stronger ridge

Barely though. There's still room for more eastward trends to save us!

[NDG]

Now two runs in a row that the GFS is trending to the left again.

[chris_fit]

About the same as 00Z @ 72 hrs... maybe SLIGHTLY W/WNW

[CourierPR]

I know this is a models thread but I have seen some posts that are borderline irresponsible concerning the eventual path of Irma. I just saw one that almost declared that we are safe now in So FL. Please be responsible in posting.

[Vdogg]

Slowing down, looks like it's getting ready to make it's turn.

[xironman]

The ridge pops like a balloon at 78hrs