ATL: IRMA - Models

[xironman]

The ridge pops like a balloon at 78hrs

[NDG]

Between 48 hours and 78 hours the GFS tracks it almost due west.

[jlauderdal]

I know this is a models thread but I have seen some posts that are borderline irresponsible concerning the eventual path of Irma. I just saw one that almost declared that we are safe now in So FL. Please be responsible in posting.

its a discussion board, quote the post so we know what you are talking about..nobody is safe in sofla thats for sure

[northjaxpro]

I know this is a models thread but I have seen some posts that are borderline irresponsible concerning the eventual path of Irma. I just saw one that almost declared that we are safe now in So FL. Please be responsible in posting.

Totally agree with you!!!!

[brghteys1216]

84, still traveling WNW

[brghteys1216]

Turning at 90

[NDG]

This run is going to end up very close to the Euro's 0z run.

[brghteys1216]

96, heading nearly north.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The difference between the 6z and 0z GFS (and 0z Euro for that matter) aren't that large when it comes to impacts for S. Florida.

[xironman]

The shortwave dug deeper. Wonder if that will allow the final landfall near SC to move a bit east

[NDG]

This run is going to end up very close to the Euro's 0z run.

Never mind, it ends up being very close to its earlier 0z run as it tracks off SE FL.

[brghteys1216]

Just off shore

[jlauderdal]

Just off shore

the trend of offshore continues, lets see how the ensembles do, lets say the nhc posts that exact track on friday, you still have to prepare likes it a direct hit and comes onshore, nobody should take this track and say we are clear or even close , we still need another 100 miles at least

[SFLcane]

Very close to Florida indeed but if this track were to hold the dirty side will remain over the ocean. Folks still 2-3 days before any impacts lots can and will change let's hope current east trend continues.

[Michele B]

Just off shore

Matthew's evil twin.

[brghteys1216]

Wouldn't surprise me to see more windshield wiping the next couple days.

I'm not going to say all clear for me until the storm has passed my location in Florida.

[gtalum]

The difference between the 6z and 0z GFS (and 0z Euro for that matter) aren't that large when it comes to impacts for S. Florida.

The differences are tiny. Some forecast points near Miami (96 hours and 108 hours) are in the exact same spot as they were at 00z. At 114 hours it looks to be moving a bit slower this run than 00z.

[WeatherHoon]

It's about time the person that controls the Florida shield woke up. I almost had to cancel a Disney trip. Glad to see the Euro jump on the bandwagon. Storms are exciting, but anyone wishing this monster to their doorstep needs help. I've come to enjoy things like electricity and running water. Still a few days left but it appears consensus is finally taking place. Here's to hoping OTS is in the cards.... not likely, but there is hope.

And as you can see, there was a slight shift West, undoubtedly bringing hurricane force gusts over the coast and some inland stretches with tropical storm force winds extending deep inland. The consensus doesn't finally take place based off of a few model runs. Please, no all clear sentiments based off of only a few runs.

[brghteys1216]

Landfall at 132 west of 00z. I think a slight west trend will continue.

[NDG]

What makes me uneasy about the GFS is how right biased it has been with Irma as it tracks over the Leeward Islands in the 3-5 day range., by no means FL is in the clear.