ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

need the pressure to drop quite a bit more for this to develop given the environmental pressures. Perhaps in the Gulf, a 1003 mb may be enough for a TD, but not likely here in the Caribbean

[Hammy]

need the pressure to drop quite a bit more for this to develop given the environmental pressures. Perhaps in the Gulf, a 1003 mb may be enough for a TD, but not likely here in the Caribbean

Is the surrounding air pressure lower than normal in general?

[gatorcane]

Wind shear is decreasing over NW Caribbean

[TJRE]

LSU ESL
https://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/



Gulf Dry Slot- atm

[gatorcane]

The other thing to note is the 850mb vorticity is showing a small vorticity that has developed more to the NE of the broader vorticity(south of Cuba). The GFS model has been showing some kind of vorticity would develop there and rotate NW around the broader low:

[GCANE]

Looks like a couple hot towers fired off along 18N between 85 and 86W just at sun-down.
Looks strong with a cirrus remnant.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[GCANE]

COAMPS
06/17 18Z run
100 hrs out - Houston Landfall

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... 50&tau=999

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM has a hurricane approaching south Texas at the end of the run in 84 hours. Yes its the NAM, but it's been consistent with the west Gulf and stronger system for several days now.

[Steve]

NAM low res heads for Texas Coast. Fits and starts around the Yucatán and then some stair stepping. Ends at 84 and can't tell if it will get pushed west into S TX or continue up toward the central coast.

12km is hooking west and intensifying at like 989 on its way to +/-Baffin Bay.

[tarheelprogrammer]

0z NAM has a hurricane approaching south Texas at the end of the run in 84 hours. Yes its the NAM, but it's been consistent with the west Gulf and stronger system for several days now.

If I remember correctly it has been right with a few storms in the past.

[Steve]

0z NAM has a hurricane approaching south Texas at the end of the run in 84 hours. Yes its the NAM, but it's been consistent with the west Gulf and stronger system for several days now.

If I remember correctly it has been right with a few storms in the past.

It's better farther north than in the tropics, but it's usually decent 3-4 days out. Path is odd along the way, but it's got a west hook at the end.

[Alyono]

need the pressure to drop quite a bit more for this to develop given the environmental pressures. Perhaps in the Gulf, a 1003 mb may be enough for a TD, but not likely here in the Caribbean

Is the surrounding air pressure lower than normal in general?

typical pressures for a monsoon trough

This is why the WPAC has an average p/w relationship so different from the Atlantic. Most of their systems come from the monsoon trough. However, their non-monsoon trough systems have the same p/w relationship as Atlantic TCs as confirmed by 2008 recon, while Caribbean monsoon trough TCs have the same P/W as WPAC monsoon trough systems. It's really monsoon trough p/w vs non-monsoon trough p/w, not Atlantic vs WPAC p/w

[StormChaser75]

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM has a hurricane approaching south Texas at the end of the run in 84 hours. Yes its the NAM, but it's been consistent with the west Gulf and stronger system for several days now.

If I remember correctly it has been right with a few storms in the past.

Yep it nailed the track of Hermine back in 2010 as well. It's been consistent with this system too. Let's see how it does.

[bamajammer4eva]

As mentioned above COAMPS shows pressure that would be possibly low enough for Hurricane (<985mb) near Houston Wednesday Night

[NDG]

0z GFS is just not giving up on its northern track solution,

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z Gfs is either a bad ass or garbage. It wont give up on the NE Gom




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[BobHarlem]

Another GFS model run with another panhandle hit, Parallel GFS just loves the Emerald Coast and Panama City.

[txwatcher91]

Honestly, the GFS and CMC solution looks more realistic when looking at the satellite. The system has most of the convection on the east side for now and it's very likely that a new center begins to develop there as this pulls north of Cuba, which is what the GFS and CMC both indicate.

[Kingarabian]

The recent Euro Op and Parallel runs reflect the same convection setup as the GTA. The main difference is that a high builds over.