ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Question? why isn't this a Potential Tropical Cyclone ? Because it is not a threat to land yet? Confusing really

[RL3AO]

Question? why isn't this a Potential Tropical Cyclone ? Because it is not a threat to land yet? Confusing really

Correct. There is no need for watches/warnings, so they won't start advisories on a PTC.

[Siker]

I really don't know how I feel about the models taking 94L on a NNE direction in the D1-D2 range...seems a bit extreme unless the center reforms. Even with a weakness, would that not lead to a NNW direction at the most? NNE seems very, very strange unless a trough is present.

Someone please help, I am confused.

Pretty sure any plotted NNE movement is a result of the current marked center of 94L interacting with a vorticity lobe further east stemming from a second tropical wave, with the two lobes orbiting counterclockwise about a centerpoint.

[SFLcane]

Question? why isn't this a Potential Tropical Cyclone ? Because it is not a threat to land yet? Confusing really

Correct. There is no need for watches/warnings, so they won't start advisories on a PTC.

For average user that's a tad to much.

[Florida1118]

Question? why isn't this a Potential Tropical Cyclone ? Because it is not a threat to land yet? Confusing really

Correct. There is no need for watches/warnings, so they won't start advisories on a PTC.

For average user that's a tad to much.

Considering the vast majority of the public couldn't care less about a cluster of thunderstorm in middle of the ocean, with no land for hundreds of miles, I'm not sure how it's "a tad much". They issue the advisories when it's pertinent; for the majority of the public that's good enough. Not sure what benefit there'd be having advisories issued on this system.

[AtlanticWind]

Question? why isn't this a Potential Tropical Cyclone ? Because it is not a threat to land yet? Confusing really

Correct. There is no need for watches/warnings, so they won't start advisories on a PTC.

For average user that's a tad to much.

Not really confusing , A PTC is just used to issue warnings in a timely manner when a system is developing close to land

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
#94L isn't moving fast, and it's easy to see why. The mean sounding in a centered 10° box shows weak steering. Also moist with low shear.



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/881878074991812609

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is the ECMWF trending toward the GFS in terms of steering or vice versa?

[cycloneye]

Is the ECMWF trending toward the GFS in terms of steering or vice versa?

Vice-versa.

[cycloneye]

Is the ECMWF trending toward the GFS in terms of steering or vice versa?

Vice-versa but let's see what the 12z brings.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is the ECMWF trending toward the GFS in terms of steering or vice versa?

Vice-versa.

So, more ridging is the current trend? If so that is not good news to hear.

[Gustywind]

Before it gets to you guys it looks likely to go over Puerto Rico.....No SAL to speak of, no shear, warm water. Someone tell me I'm wrong....

I appreciate everyone's concern and interests, but please don't forget that there are many of us here who live in the Northern Caribbean islands. We are very vulnerable to flooding with even just a tropical storm, so don't forget us and our concerns. Any comments and analyses from all of you about the Caribbean islands risks, who would be first in the line of fire, would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you from St Maarten

Such an excellent post Msbee, i appreciate sincerely !

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
742 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 35W
extending from 05N to 16N, moving west at about 5 kt within the
last 24 hours. A broad 1012 mb surface low appears to have
detached from the wave, which is now a couple hundred miles west
of the low. It is embedded on the wave axis near 10N, as
suggested by low-level cloud motions. The wave also is very
apparent at 700 mb in the Trough Diagnostics. Quite dry conditions
are occurring north of about 12N in the vicinity of the wave, as
seen in the Saharan Air Layer imagery from Meteosat 9. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N and
10N between 25W and 32W, while scattered showers are seen within
120 nm of the wave axis south of 12N.

[1900hurricane]

Clear as day monsoon trough. Like pre-Brett, 94L is near the western end of it, near 8*N, 33*W. The forecasted slow northerly meandering initially actually reminds me somewhat of a Tropical Western Pacific monsoon trough genesis (a few examples here, here, and here).

[GCANE]

850mb vort slowly increasing

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Pretty low above it at 200mb

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[GCANE]

Seeing some good divergence kick in on WV

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

[tolakram]

0Z Euro now tracks vorticity all the way to 240 hours.



6z GFS stronger and more north.



12Z GFS is running now.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro Parallel appears to be a reintensifying 1010mb low, moving WNW very close to, or just off Florida. Main culprit for weakening is again near 70-75W as it tangles with something as soon as it initially tries to get going.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 30 hours.

[tolakram]

The new SLIDER GOES 16 viewer.

URL that points to 94L: http://col.st/WVMGT

Full URL

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19672&y=9244&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider