ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

The convective pattern sure does lead one to thinking cyclogenesis is occuring..

[Weather150]

95L and the wave behind is doing very well this evening.

[cycloneye]

There is a thread for the disturbance behind 95L.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118861&p=2591088#p2591088

[abajan]

The convective pattern sure does lead one to thinking cyclogenesis is occuring..

I have a hunch it's indeed occurring. Percentages will likely be increased in the 2 AM TWO.

[Nimbus]

Persistent convection overnight as 95l approaches -50w.
Wonder if the convection will continue during the day tomorrow and get named TD5?

[AutoPenalti]

https://a.disquscdn.com/get?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fhwrf%2F2017071618%2Fhwrf_mslp_wind_95L_25.png&key=BA6ibD1kx6hrR4k8eSr_lQ&w=800&h=630
HWRF and HWRF Para getting this to a hurricane somehow. Wonder what they are seeing.

HWRF gonna HWRF.

[Alyono]

GFS trending weaker. Favoring the trailing low

[Kingarabian]

GFS coming in weaker with this. Favoring the system in the back

[AtlanticWind]

GFS-Para developing both 95l and the disturbance behind it.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS-Para 1008mb on 95l and1004mb on other system at 42 hrs

[Kingarabian]

GFS Parallel loses them both. Either too much dry air or too much shear. It's pick your poison at this point until one or the other fades away.

[Alyono]

GFS para has a Bret-like TS moving through the islands

[Hurricaneman]

Persistent convection overnight as 95l approaches -50w.
Wonder if the convection will continue during the day tomorrow and get named TD5?

If so recon will find out

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Not looking bad at all this evening.

[Hurricaneman]

I think a mid range tropical storm is possible before it hits the wall of shear

[floridasun78]

hope not telling us what islands can expect in aug could be wild ride if we see train hurr coming from far Atlantic hope high pressure dont build far west so could turn storms out to sea

[AtlanticWind]

A small low pressure system located about 800 miles east of the
Windward Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph. Associated
shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show some signs
of organization, and environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally conducive for some development of this system before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles in two to three days. After that time,
less favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional
development. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like its well on its way and we may wake up tomorrow with the recon finding a depression.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has nothing. Doesn't even try to develop it.

[Alyono]

Euro has nothing. Doesn't even try to develop it.

EC has been a steaming turd pile though this year in genesis. Been missing the WPAC storms. Seems like it's back to its old ways of missing nearly everything