ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Alyono]

given that we seem to be having another SAL surge, the EC developing the lead system seems to be a more plausible solution

[gatorcane]

96 hours, Western area looks more organized and way south:

[ColdMiser123]

Eastern Caribbean is favorable for TC development with light wind shear on the ECM.

[jlauderdal]

96 hours, Western area looks more organized and way south:

That looks like rather robust ridging to the north

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[gatorcane]

120 hours and intensifying heading pretty much west. Lesser Antilles won't escape:

[Ivanhater]

12Z looks like a Caribbean runner

[Alyono]

should we have a separate thread in TT for the system at 35W as that is not 91L

[tolakram]

Good question, I don't have a strong opinion either way. It's interesting the GFS did the dual vort dance and now we're possible talking about two storms.

[Alyono]

I'll start the thread on the 35W system then

[Alyono]

EC, UKMET< and NAVGEM indicate this is the system that will develop, not 91L

Since we have SAL coming off of Africa, the trailing wave may entrain the SAL, allowing the lead wave to develop. This is one that the Caribbean needs ot watch

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 144 hours heading west and intensifying:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

144 hours, 993mb storm in the Eastern Caribbean.

[p1nheadlarry]

So ECMWF and GFS, while depicting different scenarios overall, show development within five days. It's a start.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro. Caribbean Cruiser

[gatorcane]

HUGE weakness over Florida and EGOM:

[p1nheadlarry]

given that we seem to be having another SAL surge, the EC developing the lead system seems to be a more plausible solution

The outbreaks are thinning out as we get into the beef 'n taters of the season. I'll copy/paste the forecast url instead of a gif since this is the models thread. http://www.weather.gov/sju/dss_sal

[Alyono]

going over Hispañiola. This one may not make it

[gatorcane]

Turning more WNW toward Hispaniola:

[Alyono]

on the full res EC, it gets down to 991mb and makes a direct hit on Dominica

[blp]

Heading WNW toward the shredder Hispaniola 168hr.