ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

I think recon also shown a northeast movement? If it can get far enough northeast this thing could have about 4-5 days before landfall.

[BYG Jacob]

I think recon also shown a northeast movement? If it can get far enough northeast this thing could have about 4-5 days before landfall.

And have more time for the GoM to feed it. Not good.

[znel52]

Katia is way ahead of schedule with days left over water. The BOC works its magic again. This and Jose have a shot at becoming majors at this rate.

[Extratropical94]

Hurricane Watch issued!

Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

...HURRICANE KATIA FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 95.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of the state of Veracruz from Tuxpan to Laguna Verde.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Laguna Verde

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

An Air Force reconnaissance plane just investigated Katia and found
a much better organized tropical cyclone with a partial eyewall. It
also measured a flight-level wind of 71 kt and 66 kt with the SFMR.
Based on these data and the improved satellite presentation, Katia
is upgraded to a hurricane with 65 kt winds.

The upper-level wind pattern is becoming more favorable, and that
can be observed by the expansion of the outflow. All models continue
to favor intensification, and in fact, the SHIPS RI index gives a
63 percent chance of a 30-kt wind increase in 24 hours. The NHC
forecast calls for strengthening but at this time is not as high as
some of the guidance.

Katia is embedded within very weak steering currents, and it is now
moving slowly toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The hurricane is
forecast to meander in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next
day or two. After that time the global models develop a ridge over
the northern Gulf of Mexico and this flow pattern will steer Katia
southwestward toward the state of Veracruz. The NHC forecast is
basically on top of the multi-model consensus and follows the trend
of the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

Given the upward intensity trend and the forecast track toward
the coast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch
for a portion of the coast of the state of Veracruz. Katia is also
forecast to bring torrential rains primarily to the state of
Veracruz during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 21.7N 95.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 21.5N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 21.3N 94.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 21.1N 95.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 19.5N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Hammy]

When's the last time we had three active hurricanes at once?

[Praxus]

Good lord, three hurricanes active in the Atlantic at once!

[tatertawt24]

When's the last time we had three active hurricanes at once?

I'm going to guess Igor-Julia-Karl, probably?

[RL3AO]

When's the last time we had three active hurricanes at once?

2010

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

When's the last time we had three active hurricanes at once?

2010

At any time is there any record of 3 major hurricanes active at once?

[Hurricaneman]

When's the last time we had three active hurricanes at once?

2010

At any time is there any record of 3 major hurricanes active at once?

Want to say 2010 also

[Sciencerocks]

When's the last time we had three active hurricanes at once?

2010

At any time is there any record of 3 major hurricanes active at once?

I think 1998 also

[RL3AO]

When's the last time we had three active hurricanes at once?

2010

At any time is there any record of 3 major hurricanes active at once?

Not that I'm aware of. 1961 was the closest. Had Carla and Debra on 9/12 and then Debra and Esther on 9/13.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Outflow actually ridiculous with Katia. The system already features dual outflow channels. The poleward one in particular is removing tons of mass.

Well, hey, we all gotta go...I guess.

(Speaking of which, if Katia follows in Harvey's footsteps I am going to completely rain myself out of jokes.)

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Good lord, three hurricanes active in the Atlantic at once!

Misery loves company.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

2010

At any time is there any record of 3 major hurricanes active at once?

Not that I'm aware of. 1961 was the closest. Had Carla and Debra on 9/12 and then Debra and Esther on 9/13.

Hopefully Katia cannot measure up to the mighty Carla. I grew up on many stories about her.

(Yeah I was like "Please tell me that story again about how Carla's winds sounded and what happened to the garage again." I was a weird kid. But weren't we all?)

[ftolmsteen]

A bit off topic but why do the HWRF and HMON during Katia runs have Irma on the west side of FL?

[Chris90]

Katia is reminding me a bit of Otto last year with the way she's moving slowly and just kind of blowing up over warm water. Different locations and conditions I know, but still reminded me of that nonetheless.
I think she definitely has a decent chance to become a major based off current trends. If Jose manages it too, we'll be at 4 officially for the year and we still haven't hit September 10th. I also think there's a chance Gert gets upgraded post season, because satellite estimates were indicating a major with her at one point, which would mean we're already at 5 if Jose and Katia make it.

Makes me wonder if there's a chance we break the record of 7 majors in one season.

[ravyrn]

When's the last time we had three active hurricanes at once?

2010

At any time is there any record of 3 major hurricanes active at once?

I think the closest we came was Igor, Julia, and Karl. Igor reached Major status 9/12/10, Julia reached Major status on 9/15/10, and Karl on 9/17/10. However, Julia weakened below Major status on 9/16/10.

[CrazyC83]

I think this is quite likely to be a major...perhaps a bombing out storm into Veracruz. Also a stronger Katia I think would go further south due to the ridge?

[abajan]

When's the last time we had three active hurricanes at once?

2010

Would you happen to know how many times it's happened? Is there a website that highlights records of such occurrences?