ATL: IRMA - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

Well... that sure throws a wrench into things... I wish Channel 10 in Miami didn't post those spaghetti plots; people in the office here in fort Lauderdale are already calling Irma, Matthew 2.

Eeep. Yea I don't mind showing the operational models (namely ECMWF/GFS) on the news but the NHC forecast is what you need to focus on.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This run would devastate not only S FL, but also GA and Charleston would get extremely bad surge. Charleston is one of the most storm surge prone areas of the US coastline. Hoping it trends way east like the 0z CMC and OTS, but looking less likely. What kind of surge would this run produce in S FL?

[WeatherOrKnot]

This is pretty darn close to the nhc forecast, isn't it?

[chris_fit]

Another 40-50 miles shift west at day 5 and it can go up the spine - severely affecting all of FL.

~40 miles has been the 2 day forecast error with Irma, we are talking 5 days out. Just a heads up!

(it could also go back east too)

[South Texas Storms]

12z Canadian shifted back west...now has landfall very close to or over Miami Sunday morning.

Pretty good consensus so far between the 12z GFS, 12z CMC, and 0z Euro now.

[xironman]

The trapped east coast ridge is even stronger this run, the 588 line goes straight up to the great lakes. Look at what the pressure gradient does at landfall, the entire state of SC has about hurricane force winds.

[MatthewsRevenge]

This is pretty darn close to the nhc forecast, isn't it?

Looks like it.

[SouthDadeFish]

I would like to point out that if the 18Z GFS ticks west again by the same amount it did between the 06Z and 12Z runs today, it's right up the spine of FL... This is what I was trying to communicate earlier. This is why the NHC doesn't drastically move their cone between advisories. Each GFS run has been within the plume of ensembles members. Future runs will likely continue to wobble around. It could tick east or it could tick west, but as long as FL is within the ensemble plume and within the NHC cone, Irma is a very serious threat to FL. Please treat it as such.

[ConvergenceZone]

While this is not going out to sea, all we can hope for is for it to effect less populated areas. We will see if any model runs shift is back west later

[AdamFirst]

So much for those out to sea posts, eh....

If EURO is in the same vicinity I'd say it's a wrap for a hurricane impact on South Florida. Just gotta watch the little deviations from here on out.

[gtalum]

This is pretty darn close to the nhc forecast, isn't it?

I think NHC is a tiny bit west of this run still.

[p1nheadlarry]

Man...who could have possibly predicted that the people declaring Florida safe this morning out look so stupid so soon...

People are RETURNING supplies. Now we see the mad rush to get them back, should the ECM also come west. My goodness...I have chills. I really do.

Every local and major news network should begin with something similar to what Levi Cowan does in his videos. "Please consult NHC." Hell take it a step further, put the website URL at the bottom of the screen like it's an 80's telethon.

[South Texas Storms]

12z UKMET:

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 63.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2017 0 18.1N 63.3W 957 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 12 19.1N 65.8W 958 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 24 20.0N 68.6W 958 73
0000UTC 08.09.2017 36 20.9N 71.4W 943 86
1200UTC 08.09.2017 48 21.4N 73.7W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 60 21.7N 75.8W 941 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.8N 78.0W 947 83
0000UTC 10.09.2017 84 22.2N 79.6W 945 89
1200UTC 10.09.2017 96 23.3N 80.3W 933 86
0000UTC 11.09.2017 108 25.0N 80.2W 921 96
1200UTC 11.09.2017 120 27.5N 80.4W 922 96
0000UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.1N 80.6W 934 85
1200UTC 12.09.2017 144 33.1N 80.8W 957 62

[northjaxpro]

the western eye wall scrapes up the entire Florida East Coast or within 25 miles of the coast for this 12z GFS run . oh my, if this run verifies or comes close to verifying, that would just absolutely be catastrophic for areas all along the east coast of Florida not just the Miami Metro area.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC shifts west:

[tallywx]

This run would devastate not only S FL, but also GA and Charleston would get extremely bad surge. Charleston is one of the most storm surge prone areas of the US coastline. Hoping it trends way east like the 0z CMC and OTS, but looking less likely. What kind of surge would this run produce in S FL?

Not to mention the Hilton Head/Beaufort area in the RFQ with a 10-foot tidal range with high tide at ~1:30pm on Monday. That nook of the coast has rarely seen big windstorms and has gorgeous forests and stately live oaks that haven't seen winds like this in generations.

[northjaxpro]

CMC and GFS have shifted west again. Very ominous sign here and not good!

[Steve]

Well... that sure throws a wrench into things... I wish Channel 10 in Miami didn't post those spaghetti plots; people in the office here in fort Lauderdale are already calling Irma, Matthew 2.

You can't fight willful ignorance. It's part of the de-evolutionary process of America in 2017. As for the guy who said the miss would be a let-down - most of us all know the excitement of an impending hurricane. Some people suffer seasonal affective disorder. Some who are otherwise completely stable go manic with a threat and sort of get depressed when it doesn't materialize. Not going to hate though obviously it's way more of a letdown to find out you lost everything you owned than the storm missed you.

GFS @ 96 hours 897 coming up extremely close to Miami. Likely strong hurricane conditions in SE FL on that run. GFS later affects areas north like Palm Coast, Jacksonville metro, SE GA and Southern SC. It stays 920's all the way to up the GA Coast, so this is a major major system that's going to have wide reaching impacts along the coast if the GFS verifies.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z UKMET:

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 63.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2017 0 18.1N 63.3W 957 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 12 19.1N 65.8W 958 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 24 20.0N 68.6W 958 73
0000UTC 08.09.2017 36 20.9N 71.4W 943 86
1200UTC 08.09.2017 48 21.4N 73.7W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 60 21.7N 75.8W 941 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.8N 78.0W 947 83
0000UTC 10.09.2017 84 22.2N 79.6W 945 89
1200UTC 10.09.2017 96 23.3N 80.3W 933 86
0000UTC 11.09.2017 108 25.0N 80.2W 921 96
1200UTC 11.09.2017 120 27.5N 80.4W 922 96
0000UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.1N 80.6W 934 85
1200UTC 12.09.2017 144 33.1N 80.8W 957 62

Similar to 00z all lined up now...

[Ken711]

What South Carolina town does Irma hits landfall here? Doesn't look like Charleston.

Between Savannah and Charleston.