ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

need to see if we have buoys out there...does look like consolidation under that new convection....good eye

[floridasun78]

ex Harvey cloudy almost getting to key west how big it is

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, TX and LA need to really monitor this, until a new center actually forms the models could be off a good bit spread out in time.

[Frank P]

ex Harvey cloudy almost getting to key west how big it is

It has been expanding all day.. very impressive TW cloud formation for sure...

[ROCK]

Yep, TX and LA need to really monitor this, until a new center actually forms the models could be off a good bit spread out in time.

totally agree...with a center forming further NW might bring Mid LA coast or all of LA for that matter...the trend is right attm...

[Dean4Storms]

need to see if we have buoys out there...does look like consolidation under that new convection....good eye

You can also see the upper level high is just about centered right over it there where the circulation is growing and convection is repeatedly firing now. Not good, much further north in latitude than what I saw any models with, at least and globals.

[Kingarabian]

need to see if we have buoys out there...does look like consolidation under that new convection....good eye

Aric Dunn is licking his chops and will be with us shortly

[Wx_Warrior]

Cantore: getting the "swirl look"

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see definitive obs showing a surface low/circulation up there right now, but that could change tonight if this convection keeps going.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm starting to watch closely here in Louisiana. A "center" seems to be consolidating a lot further north than the models and I would have thought. Things are about to get very interesting around here.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's looking increasingly likely Texas will face the threat of a hurricane landfall in 4-5 days. Almost 3 days over the Bay of Campeche is a long time in a low wind shear and moist environment.

[SunnyThoughts]

I'm starting to watch closely here in Louisiana. A "center" seems to be consolidating a lot further north than the models and I would have thought. Things are about to get very interesting around here.

I also agree about the "center" perhaps forming farther North than expected, which also means that he won't have as long over the Yucatan as would be the case if the center were farther South. Everyone take care and be prepared. Better to be ready and have the storm miss you, than the alternative.

[Kingarabian]

It's looking increasingly likely Texas will face the threat of a hurricane landfall in 4-5 days. Almost 3 days over the Bay of Campeche is a long time in a low wind shear and moist environment.

Yeah I'm not understanding why the models are keeping it weak. Even the EPS members keep it a relatively weak.

[TheStormExpert]

It's looking increasingly likely Texas will face the threat of a hurricane landfall in 4-5 days. Almost 3 days over the Bay of Campeche is a long time in a low wind shear and moist environment.

Would be the first legit hurricane threat since Ike (2008) for Texas.

[TheStormExpert]

It's looking increasingly likely Texas will face the threat of a hurricane landfall in 4-5 days. Almost 3 days over the Bay of Campeche is a long time in a low wind shear and moist environment.

Yeah I'm not understanding why the models are keeping it weak. Even the EPS members keep it a relatively weak.

Yeah the GoM's warm waters is rocket fuel alone but add low wind shear and a good moist environment and BOOM!

[Tireman4]

Speaking from someone who went through Ike. it can stay away too...

[GalvestonWXGeek]

:uarrow:

Speaking from someone who went through Ike. it can stay away too...

Ditto.....

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's looking increasingly likely Texas will face the threat of a hurricane landfall in 4-5 days. Almost 3 days over the Bay of Campeche is a long time in a low wind shear and moist environment.

Yeah I'm not understanding why the models are keeping it weak. Even the EPS members keep it a relatively weak.

Models have forever underestimated storms in the Bay of Campeche. That we have consensus for a strong tropical storm/hurricane already (sub-980 Euro/GFS; Cat 3 HWRF; Cat 2 HMON; Cat 1 SHIPS) is a strong enough signal. Even Bret, which exploded to a Category 4 off Texas in 1999, was only forecast by the NHC and computer models to be a moderate tropical storm (obviously not saying we're going to repeat that here).

[TexWx]

:uarrow:

Speaking from someone who went through Ike. it can stay away too...

Ditto.....

Double Ditto

[cycloneye]

A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.