ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1255.5&y=994.5&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[GCANE]

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quick ... name=MARIA


 https://twitter.com/noaaocean/status/909856446438936576

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/909852284628213761

[gatorcane]

RAMMB floater updated. Easy to track Maria now that she has an eye. Looks to have turned WNW-NW:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[PandaCitrus]

Very pronounced north west movement on radar last 2 hours. It could miss Dominica now to the north. Probably best case scenario right now with the compact wind field is to go between dominica and Guadalupe. It's also possible of a direct hit on Guadalupe. That island has a population of 400K and is the biggest eu territory in the islands. That would be a very bad hit.

[OntarioEggplant]

Per radar I think this is most likely to clip the northern part of Dominica. Possibly the far SW part of Guadeloupe will see the eyewall too. I don't think it's moving at the proper angle to hit Guadeloupe directly.

[SoupBone]

Very pronounced north west movement on radar last 2 hours. It could miss Dominica now to the north. Probably best case scenario right now with the compact wind field is to go between dominica and Guadalupe. It's also possible of a direct hit on Guadalupe. That island has a population of 400K and is the biggest eu territory in the islands. That would be a very bad hit.

She looks to be missing her next forecast point well to the east.

[txwatcher91]

Eye has REALLY cleared out on latest 1 min visibles from Goes-16. I would say this is probably 140-145mph right now and 945mb based on the sat presentation. A cat 5 isn't out of the question here IMO. Any idea when next recon might be out there?

[Alyono]

I'd expect this to wobble back to the west shortly. One west wobble will take this over Dominica

[Kazmit]

Satellite appearance has improved with the clearing of that eye.

[PandaCitrus]

The hwrf model forecasted rapid intensification and a northwest movement. It had landfall in Guadalupe and direct hit in the virgin Islands where Irma hit narrowly missing Puerto Rico to the northeast. It's something to watch with the northern jog if this track verifies.

[hurricaneCW]

Very pronounced north west movement on radar last 2 hours. It could miss Dominica now to the north. Probably best case scenario right now with the compact wind field is to go between dominica and Guadalupe. It's also possible of a direct hit on Guadalupe. That island has a population of 400K and is the biggest eu territory in the islands. That would be a very bad hit.

She looks to be missing her next forecast point well to the east.

Likely a wobble however it's probably enough to take this right over Dominica.

[txwatcher91]

Radar indicating this is starting to wobble back W to WNW now... terrible for Dominica as most of the island may experience the eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the clear eye and structure, I would go with 120 kt for the current intensity.

[OntarioEggplant]

Raw T# up to 6.7

[blazess556]

It appears that Maria's eye has fully cleared out. Certainly looks to be getting close to category 5.

[FLpanhandle91]

Based on the clear eye and structure, I would go with 120 kt for the current intensity.

I'm thinking closer to 140kt.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the clear eye and structure, I would go with 120 kt for the current intensity.

I'm thinking closer to 140kt.

I doubt they would go that high without Recon unless we get a surface pressure reading from Dominica that is below 930.

[OntarioEggplant]

Reallllllllllly wish we had a recon plane in there right now

[FLpanhandle91]

Based on the clear eye and structure, I would go with 120 kt for the current intensity.

https://i.imgur.com/b36t7yh.jpg

I'm thinking closer to 140kt.

I doubt they would go that high without Recon unless we get a surface pressure reading from Dominica that is below 930.

Agreed. Don't think they'll push it that high. Just my personal observation/opinion.