ATL: IRMA - Models

[PTPatrick]

Haven't looked at slosh models per say, but I'm guessing that a south - north approach into South Carolina would be a worse surge producer than Hugo as it would tend to push water into the coast more ahead of storm..and Hugo was 20 foot.

[p1nheadlarry]

The trapped east coast ridge is even stronger this run, the 588 line goes straight up to the great lakes. Look at what the pressure gradient does at landfall, the entire state of SC has about hurricane force winds.

The upstate higher in elevation too (if the name doesn't give it away) so they could receive some fairly high gusts like they did with Hugo.

[BucMan2]

Is it still possible the models could send it up the spine, talking 30-40 miles or so?

[USTropics]

ukmet plots:

[p1nheadlarry]

So much for those out to sea posts, eh....

If EURO is in the same vicinity I'd say it's a wrap for a hurricane impact on South Florida. Just gotta watch the little deviations from here on out.

Watching that shortwave and ATL ridge like a hawk. I feel fairly to mostly safe here in the bend/handle but going up the spine still a real threat.

[sweetpea]

Well... that sure throws a wrench into things... I wish Channel 10 in Miami didn't post those spaghetti plots; people in the office here in fort Lauderdale are already calling Irma, Matthew 2.

You can't fight willful ignorance. It's part of the de-evolutionary process of America in 2017. As for the guy who said the miss would be a let-down - most of us all know the excitement of an impending hurricane. Some people suffer seasonal affective disorder. Some who are otherwise completely stable go manic with a threat and sort of get depressed when it doesn't materialize. Not going to hate though obviously it's way more of a letdown to find out you lost everything you owned than the storm missed you.

GFS @ 96 hours 897 coming up extremely close to Miami. Likely strong hurricane conditions in SE FL on that run. GFS later affects areas north like Palm Coast, Jacksonville metro, SE GA and Southern SC. It stays 920's all the way to up the GA Coast, so this is a major major system that's going to have wide reaching impacts along the coast if the GFS verifies.

GEEZ, dealing with my dad in PR right now. Then will have to start worrying about my father in law in Palm Coast. Not to mention all our other friends and family in Florida. We lived in the Daytona area for 20 years.

[p1nheadlarry]

Is it still possible the models could send it up the spine, talking 30-40 miles or so?

The European model, generally the best with long-term track error, still can generate an error of over 100 miles in 4-5 days. Yes it's possible.

[skufful]

What South Carolina town does Irma hits landfall here? Doesn't look like Charleston.

Maybe Beaufort, unfortunately.

[caneseddy]

ukmet plots:

A little shift west...looks like the western eyewall gets into Metro South Florida. Not many good trends my friends.

[Steve]

What South Carolina town does Irma hits landfall here? Doesn't look like Charleston.

Between Savannah and Charleston.

Looks way closer to Brunswick, GA to me. Even though there are a lot of bays, estuaries and inlets along the GA Coast, it's not particularly populous.

What South Carolina town does Irma hits landfall here? Doesn't look like Charleston.

It landfalls in Coastal Georgia around Hour 126 (one or two before the plot you posted). Looks like around Brunswick. There are a lot of inlets, rivers and bays along the GA Coast, but it's not particularly populated.
http://georgia.us.censusviewer.com/client

[gatorcane]

CMC and GFS have shifted west again. Very ominous sign here and not good!

GFS/UKMET/CMC have a SE Florida direct hit now.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Is it still possible the models could send it up the spine, talking 30-40 miles or so?

Yup. We're still days away before it reaches the US. But I think the east trend has abruptly stopped (for now). Euro went a little east last time on its 00z run so I expect a slight west shift with the 12z run.

[xironman]

What South Carolina town does Irma hits landfall here? Doesn't look like Charleston.

Maybe Beaufort, unfortunately.

Hopefully the local officials are on top of this. Though Florida is in the headlines it looks like storm surge on the SC coast could be close to catastrophic. Been to Beaufort during an Edisto vacation, its awesome.

[p1nheadlarry]

What South Carolina town does Irma hits landfall here? Doesn't look like Charleston.

Between Savannah and Charleston.

Looks way closer to Brunswick, GA to me. Even though there are a lot of bays, estuaries and inlets along the GA Coast, it's not particularly populous.

What South Carolina town does Irma hits landfall here? Doesn't look like Charleston.

It landfalls in Coastal Georgia around Hour 126 (one or two before the plot you posted). Looks like around Brunswick. There are a lot of inlets, rivers and bays along the GA Coast, but it's not particularly populated.
http://georgia.us.censusviewer.com/client

However, Beaufort/HHI to its north would be getting walloped. Hugo hit Charleston, Georgetown to McClellanville took the right hook to the jawline.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well models this is not what you were supposed to do. I was hoping for the continued shift to the right with a prayer of OTS. Could it happen...I'm sure it's still a possibility. But I think that window is closing fast. These models are just too good at this range to not expect a significant impact from Irma here in Florida. Today's 12z Euro could very well be the nail in the coffin. If it's on course or trends back west some then in my opinion the Florida forecast chapter in Irma's book is nearly completed. From here on out the devil will be in the details. Lots of wobble watching over the next 4 days.

[Mouton]

Latest GFS shows the Indiana solution again.

Looks like the left of 360 run over Florida after hitting 80W, very similar to the NHC solution through 6 days. Very bad case for family, friends and me. Worse would be if it took at path beginning at 81W.

That NE high ridge even sets the follow on storm back down almost into a semi loop.

Just a horrible season, and it ain't over yet.

[Hurricane Andrew]

12z UKMET:

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 63.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2017 0 18.1N 63.3W 957 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 12 19.1N 65.8W 958 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 24 20.0N 68.6W 958 73
0000UTC 08.09.2017 36 20.9N 71.4W 943 86
1200UTC 08.09.2017 48 21.4N 73.7W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 60 21.7N 75.8W 941 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.8N 78.0W 947 83
0000UTC 10.09.2017 84 22.2N 79.6W 945 89
1200UTC 10.09.2017 96 23.3N 80.3W 933 86
0000UTC 11.09.2017 108 25.0N 80.2W 921 96
1200UTC 11.09.2017 120 27.5N 80.4W 922 96
0000UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.1N 80.6W 934 85
1200UTC 12.09.2017 144 33.1N 80.8W 957 62

Even the UKIE shows that major deepening from D3-D4. I'm sold on it...and it worries me.

[fendie]

What South Carolina town does Irma hits landfall here? Doesn't look like Charleston.

[removed image]

Maybe Beaufort, unfortunately.

Hi-Res 12Z GFS landfalls in Ossabaw Island, Georgia just after 126 hours (using 3-hourly GFS on WxBell). 923 mb, 131 knots max 10 meter winds.

[Nimbus]

I don't think we will know the effects on Miami till the wind field reporting from recon.
Puerto Rico might escape the cat 2 winds but the east end of the island still could be going on generator for a while.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Well models this is not what you were supposed to do. I was hoping for the continued shift to the right with a prayer of OTS. Could it happen...I'm sure it's still a possibility. But I think that window is closing fast. These models are just too good at this range to not expect a significant impact from Irma here in Florida. Today's 12z Euro could very well be the nail in the coffin. If it's on course or trends back west some then in my opinion the Florida forecast chapter in Irma's book is nearly completed. From here on out the devil will be in the details. Lots of wobble watching over the next 4 days.

Yeah that window's closing fast. We'll really see where Irma goes by Thursday-Friday for Florida. Of course if the models keep it around SC, the entire state (since it's so small) will definitely need to be on alert. This is definitely a Hugo flashback. Hugo tore up South Carolina but move west of most of North Carolina. Hugo's daughter is coming if the models stay with a SC hit (think Euro also had it hitting SC last run too).