ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON wants to destroy South Florida. Is there any reason why this model is so much higher in intensity than say the HWRF???

[RL3AO]

HMON wants to destroy South Florida. Is there any reason why this model is so much higher in intensity than say the HWRF???

No ocean coupling.

[AdamFirst]

I'll say this much. Given the current trend of the models, if I were anywhere from the Carolinas to Long Island I would be watching Irma very closely until, at least, this weekend.

What trends? Which of the main models has this going beyond the Outer Banks?

I'd be very concerned in coastal Georgia & the Carolinas, for sure though...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Good question, I know very little about the HMON (mainly because it is so new). Maybe a Pro Met on here could answer that question?

[Emmett_Brown]

I just saw on another site that the 12z GEFS has shifted W back over FL.

[SouthFLTropics]

The HMON run is brutal for SE Florida

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll say this much. Given the current trend of the models, if I were anywhere from the Carolinas to Long Island I would be watching Irma very closely until, at least, this weekend.

What trends? Which of the main models has this going beyond the Outer Banks?

I'd be very concerned in coastal Georgia & the Carolinas, for sure though...

The general eastward trend in the models since last night. Granted, that trend may reverse given time.

Many of the ensembles do -

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance ... ng?8695221

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance ... g?98796551

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF south of Andros Island

[SouthFLTropics]

I'll say this much. Given the current trend of the models, if I were anywhere from the Carolinas to Long Island I would be watching Irma very closely until, at least, this weekend.

What trends? Which of the main models has this going beyond the Outer Banks?

I'd be very concerned in coastal Georgia & the Carolinas, for sure though...

The general eastward trend in the models since last night. Granted, that trend may reverse given time.

Many of the ensembles do -

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance ... ng?8695221

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance ... g?98796551

With all due respect, the eastward trend has halted with the 12z runs we are currently seeing. We anxiously await the 12z Euro which starts in about 30 minutes.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is going to make impact with South Florida upon turning...It would take a miracle to miss it.

[caneseddy]

HWRF south of Andros Island

This is where the two prior runs of the HWRF had the turn north...let's see what happens.

[chris_fit]

Trend at 81 hours....

decent ways further W than 6z

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF between Andros Island and the Keys...Looks to be making the turn NW. I see no possible way it avoids impact with the mainland.

[Evil Jeremy]

What is the HMON model? This is the first storm I'm seeing it. Is it reliable?

[chris_fit]

Closer to SE FL this time...

[Palmcitycane]

I'm curios how long does it take for the HWRF to do its complete run? It seems like some of the Models run fairly quickly and the images get shared, than some of the others are a little slower. Maybe it's just my nerves and impatience at this point. Thanks again for all the info being shared.

[SouthFLTropics]

Also, notice the pressure drop and windspeed increase on the HWRF as it starts to make the turn. Not sure what's causing that but it could be due to the Gulf Stream waters.

[caneseddy]

GFS ensembles shifted back west now over the Peninsula with the mean landfalling in Miami and taking the I-95 route north

[RL3AO]

What is the HMON model? This is the first storm I'm seeing it. Is it reliable?

It's new. It replaced the GFDL.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm curios how long does it take for the HWRF to do its complete run? It seems like some of the Models run fairly quickly and the images get shared, than some of the others are a little slower. Maybe it's just my nerves and impatience at this point. Thanks again for all the info being shared.

Every model takes about 30-60 minutes to run, depending on how far out it extends. HWRF only goes through 5 days, so it's over faster. the Global models go out for weeks, and take around an hour, or a bit more, to finish. UKMET releases all their data at once.