ATL: IRMA - Models

[Voltron]

Hey Voltron,

This should answer your question fully. Run this NAM 12km resolution 12Z and look up toward the Great Lakes toward the end of the run. At 72 hours the high is centered across Wisconsin. 84 Hours it's on the U.P. of Michigan. It's a progressive high in that it's moving west to east (progressing) across the northern tier. If NAM went out farther, it comes east and blocks a NE alleyway out to sea. I only suggest this for overview, not for track of Irma.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=468

It may make more sense to you to look at it in shaded colors as well. Look at the 500mb Height & Anomalies. Red is high pressure. Blue is low pressure. Watch the evolution as the Trough lifts out, and this should explain better than I can what happens. The high is basically NE/N and NW of Irma which is why it has the west hook.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=601

This is great, really good stuff. It appears that it could be overstated or off a bit so in theory depending on the blocking ridge it still could be west or east 100 miles which based on how big this storm is would not really matter from effect wise

[tolakram]

[AutoPenalti]

Oh boy 96 HRS

[CDO62]

GEFS Ensemble 06z to 12z Trend...MAJOR DIFFERENCES

Wow....that really tightened up.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ouch...Euro Crushes Key Largo on a NNW heading. This is not going to end well. I think the Euro just put the East trend discussion to bed.

[miamijaaz]

Euro up the spine at 96 HRS...

[Hurricane Andrew]

ECM creams SFL...C4 into Miami area. Wow.

[RL3AO]

Another catastrophic run from the Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

Just when we were getting a consensus the Euro goes and throws a wrench in things.

[Ken711]

Is this the due north turn?

[NDG]

Not surprised that the Euro shifted a little to the west.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/5miOGuJ.png

Is this the due north turn?

No, it's not.

[RL3AO]

Just when we were getting a consensus the Euro goes and throws a wrench in things.

We have a consensus now. The Euro, GFS, GEFS, and NHC all have a cat 4/5 near Miami in four days.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just when we were getting a consensus the Euro goes and throws a wrench in things.

We have a pretty good consensus...It just isn't the consensus that any of us in SE Florida want. On 12z the GFS, HMON, UKMET, HWRF, CMC, and now Euro have all trended to the west pretty much right on, just inland, or just off the coast of SE Florida. It probably won't but I hope this puts away the foolishness of local media outlets jumping on one model run and declaring that we're in the clear. Follow the NHC...They're the best in the business.

[caneman]

Not surprised that the Euro knocked shifted a little to the west.

Me either

[tolakram]

[Steve]

Those ensembles show a marked shift back to a threat centered very near Miami, FL. They are more consolidated now, so I think GFS is honing in. For all the people trying to scoff at this down in FL (the Matthew 2, blah blah blah folks), maybe they'll get a wakeup call in this or succeeding runs? Some people I know, know to check with me for advice because they know I am always ahead of the curve (props to S2K for that). Other people believe what they hear or panic off of Facebook spaghetti plots or whatever. 12Z trends so far are definitely not good for SE FL. And as I said earlier, we're now getting to the point with the models where they will become more accurate with every 6 or 12 hour increment. Let people squawk and say or post what they want on social media. Luckily all of us already know better.

FWIW, 12Z NAVGEM is filling in. 96 hours has it right over Islamorada and heading for the Everglades which it hits from the South. It stays in Florida all the way to 114 hours where the eastern eyewall is coming back offshore around New Smyrna Beach. This is a bad track for metro Orlando where most of the metro should probably expect Cat 1 at a minimum (though NAVGEM is eh at best). 120 Hours it's right over Jacksonville Beach with a little bit over 1/2 of the eye offshore. That's a good 6 hour ride along the coast with the north, west and east sides of the eyewall.

It pulls back in on the GA Coast for good.

[NDG]

Just when we were getting a consensus the Euro goes and throws a wrench in things.

We have a consensus now. The Euro, GFS, GEFS, and NHC all have a cat 4/5 near Miami in four days.

Not good at all, at 96 hrs the Euro has been very good, almost perfect with the tracks.

Time for all of SE FL and Keys to finish final preparations for a potential direct hit.

[Dean4Storms]

Keep in mind 4 days ago the official NHC track had Irma passing well to the north of the Islands, things can and will likely change. Could be further east or further west or right where the ECM is painting it this afternoon.

[p1nheadlarry]

Ouch...Euro Crushes Key Largo on a NNW heading. This is not going to end well. I think the Euro just put the East trend discussion to bed.

Within 5 days, hard to argue the ECMWF this season...but up to Irma these next couple days + the shortwave to see where it is with respect to FL before that window begins to open.