ATL: IRMA - Models

[rockyman]

Really wish the Euro wasn't 24 he periods. Not enough detail. Can't tell if it's heading N or NNE after it hits Florida.

Looks pretty darn close to due north to me.

Higher res Euro is running here:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... 0000z.html

Looks like it moves inland south of Miami and exits around Port St Lucie

[gtalum]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

It's not "right up the spine". It enters SSW of miami and exits around Daytona. If this track verifies the entire Metro SEFL is in the eastern eyewall though. It's also basically in consensus with GFS and the official NHC track.

[Stormcenter]

Good post Dean4Storms

Keep in mind 4 days ago the official NHC track had Irma passing well to the north of the Islands, things can and will likely change. Could be further east or further west or right where the ECM is painting it this afternoon.

[chris_fit]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

It's not "right up the spine". It enters SSW of miami and exits around Daytona. If this track verifies the entire Metro SEFL is in the eastern eyewall though.

The worst possible scenario I believe

[tolakram]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

Not the spine. Very crude drawing based on what I'm seeing via Weatherbell. Not an exact track. I was also wrong, it exits near Port St Lucie though it appears to be curving westish as it does.

[Vdogg]

Really wish the Euro wasn't 24 he periods. Not enough detail. Can't tell if it's heading N or NNE after it hits Florida.

Looks pretty darn close to due north to me.

I think so too, just hard to tell with the curvature of the state.

[Hurricane Andrew]

With the wind core size of this thing, 50 miles may make all the difference. 50 east? C1-2 winds over SEFL, which while brutal, are not flattening. 50 west? C3-4, perhaps gusting to 5. Widespread, near-complete destruction in the path of the inner eyeball.

[NFLnut]

This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

I respect your knowledge and input. But my definition of "right up the spine" is going up the middle of the state. The latest consensus of all of these models is Miami/Ft Lauderdale getting the western eyewall at a minimum and then scraping the coast with the NE quadrant (hopefully) offshore.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905498712130166784




Based off the latest Euro run

[Michele B]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

Not the spine. Very crude drawing based on what I'm seeing via Weatherbell. Not an exact track. I was also wrong, it exits near Port St Lucie though it appears to be curving westish as it does.

If this holds, this IS Irmageddon!

This takes it over the ENTIRE Southern FL's most populated metro centers. Essentially wiping out entire big cities and towns and financial entities....buildings, businesses, infrastructure.

My God, My God.....

[RL3AO]

Good post Dean4Storms

Keep in mind 4 days ago the official NHC track had Irma passing well to the north of the Islands, things can and will likely change. Could be further east or further west or right where the ECM is painting it this afternoon.

I guess we have different ideas of what "well north of the islands" means.

[chris_fit]

It' the NAVGEM but it's up the spine of FL with a decent shift W....

Trend

[tolakram]

Here we go, much better thanks to weather.us. While I'm posting these keep in mind this is just one model run, and I'm documenting it, not saying this will happen.

[KWT]

Very strong consensus at last regardi ng track and strength of Irma, looks like S.Florida then general northwards motion either up the coast or just offshore. Likely to have monster winds regardless of landfall locations and most models have this 4/5, basically a mix of Andrews/Labour day storm (with a pressure likely inbetween the two)

ECM 12z has 140mph gusts in Miami by the way...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Likely sustained winds of 100-120mph for much of the SEFL coast, with gusts to 140-150+, correct? (ECM verbatim)

[PerfectStorm]

Any professional estimates of wind speeds in Hillsborough County based on the Spine/East Coast track?

[Patrick99]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

Not the spine. Very crude drawing based on what I'm seeing via Weatherbell. Not an exact track. I was also wrong, it exits near Port St Lucie though it appears to be curving westish as it does.

Please let that not hold. I am absolutely sick right now.

[AutoPenalti]

Not for the faint-hearted.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yeah, it is really getting clearer now on a consensus that the entire Florida peninsula is likely to get severely impacted by Irma. This run has shifted right up the spine of the state.

The models have zoned in this scenario or at minimum, the East Coast scrapper all the way up the coast.

Either scenario would be catastrophic no matter how you slice it. .

Not the spine. Very crude drawing based on what I'm seeing via Weatherbell. Not an exact track. I was also wrong, it exits near Port St Lucie though it appears to be curving westish as it does.

Please let that not hold. I am absolutely sick right now.

Patrick, you need to think about getting out. I am dead serious. Not trying to scare you, or anyone else, but you do not want to mess with this thing.

[otowntiger]

Hello,
This is my first ever post here on Storm 2K!! Been on site since Charley here in Orlando and want to say this is the best forum out there!! Thanks for keeping us informed on whats going on as this is a dangerous situation for all here in the mainland. Have noticed models flip flooping everywhere but wanted to say no matter what we have to stop looking at a certain point. The storm is over 400 miles in diameter so pretty much the whole state of Florida will be impacted someway somehow. Wanted to ask since im no expert what type of winds would we realistically feel here in Orlando. Fox35 said at least 100mph earlier in morning. Wanted to see how valid that statement was. Keep up the good work guys doing great.

First welcome fellow Orlandoan! It could get interesting around here come this weekend. Orlando is taking it seriously if you can judge by the line at the gas stations and sold out water, batteries and other typical storm prep items at the stores around town. You and I know that inland areas like Orlando metro can still get quite a lot of wind (105 gusts during Charley with sustained in the 80's did more than its fair share of damage around these parts). To answer your question, of course I'm no Met either but what we get here will depend entirely upon the exact track and if the core or strongest part of the storm comes right over head - that detail wont really be known until the day of the event. They can narrow it down to about 50 miles maybe at about 24 hours, but any deviations in the actual track could make the difference between getting 50-60 mph winds to 100+. I know we aren't to look at the direct path of the storm, especially this far out, but in the case of the day of you certainly do as wobbles can make all the difference. Other factors that come into play for inland wind intensity have to do the forward speed of the storm and how well its structure holds up after traversing this far inland. Anyway I know you'd rather hear from a ProMet but hopefully I have not given you bad info. The best way to know is to turn on Tom Terry on channel 9 - he was great during Charley and tells it like it is. right now he's saying we don't know and wont know what we will get here, but will have a better idea by tomorrow.
-Otowntiger