ATL: TEN - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#841 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:14 pm

Tropical Storm for Broward/Dade

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#842 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:21 pm

Riding the Gulf Stream and deepening just offshore

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#843 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:24 pm

About the closest approach it makes to Florida before heading out...Close enough, about 20 miles

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#844 Postby storm4u » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:30 pm

0z gfs and 0z canadian develop this and have it going up the east coast now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#845 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:34 pm

Intensifies rather quickly as it nears SFL...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#846 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:48 pm

Those Gulf Stream waters are like jet fuel to a storm if all other conditions are good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#847 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:50 pm

storm4u wrote:0z gfs and 0z canadian develop this and have it going up the east coast now


I'm not seeing any indication of development from the GFS. Just some increased vorticity in the long range as it rides out on the trough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#848 Postby joey » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:05 am

takes it to a cat one very close to south fl 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#849 Postby storm4u » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:07 am

It has it but its weak

[/quote]

I'm not seeing any indication of development from the GFS. Just some increased vorticity in the long range as it rides out on the trough.[/quote]
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#850 Postby hohnywx » Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:35 am

The RGEM is a pretty good model (unlike its crazy uncle CMC) so for it to show development certainly piques my interest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#851 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:38 am

hohnywx wrote:The RGEM is a pretty good model (unlike its crazy uncle CMC) so for it to show development certainly piques my interest.

But it's a mesoscale model which is used in forecasting U.S. weather.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#852 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:41 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Tropical Storm for Broward/Dade

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the only model my kid cares about is the "school cancellation" model, can it get close enough with enough intensity is a huge concern for school kids up and down the coast of SE florida and do the parents have enough backup power in place to keep their cell phone running...water, food, shelter never part of their equation
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#853 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:41 am

According to the GFS 850mb vorticity should start falling apart soon amounting to little to nothing by 48hrs. when it reaches Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#854 Postby sunnyday » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:10 am

48 hours and we still don't know where it's going or how strong it will be when it gets there???? That is scary!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#855 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:38 am

TheStormExpert wrote:According to the GFS 850mb vorticity should start falling apart soon amounting to little to nothing by 48hrs. when it reaches Florida.

Looking quite unlikely to me
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#856 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:55 am

sunnyday wrote:48 hours and we still don't know where it's going or how strong it will be when it gets there???? That is scary!

More than likely 92L won't amount to a whole lot for Florida, but you never know. After all it's prime-time!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#857 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:42 am

Wow it is true. These models have no run to run consistency this year. I don't think I'll get a drop of rain from 92L. Next run will have a cat 3 hitting New Jersey. No use at looking at models till we have a name. :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#858 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:27 am

12Z

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#859 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:29 am

gatorcane wrote:12Z

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What a hot mess. Absolutely no consistency in the models. SIgh.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#860 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:42 am

pgoss11 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z

Image


What a hot mess. Absolutely no consistency in the models. SIgh.
Like most unorganized systems we expect a hot mess and we are getting it

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
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