MatthewsRevenge wrote:newtotex wrote:Steve wrote:
According to some posters, some TV Mets and social media posters have used that as their validation for apathy earlier today.
Localized conditions can be sketchy on the global and even mesoscale models. But it's possible that a farther shift west toward the keys would cut back on the potential structural damage in Miami/Miami Beach. The Everglades and Big Cypress won't really knock anything back substantially, but every mile inland does absorb some of the energy. I'm not wishing or hoping for a track farther west, but a hit on the SW Tip of FL might be slightly better than a hit on the southern tip or over on the SE Coast as it relates to population centers and specifically Miami up to West Palm Beach. Cat 2/3 effects are generally preferable to Cat 4/5 where you jump from extensive to catastrophic structural damage. Consider that Florida is less than 100 miles across at Miami's latitude and roughly about 110 miles from Hollywood across to Naples. Depending on the size of the eye and inner core at landfall, at some point west things start improving for the SE FL Coast.
What's been concerning to me is intensification in the FL Straits. Many models have shown some of the lowest pressures in the 4 day period on approach to FL Landfall. How big and how wide the inner bands go will make a difference if it's deepening. Consider metro Miami has roughly 5 million people. Naples has probably 35,000 in that general area. Ft. Meyers/Cape Coral close to 300k and maybe 700-800k people up toward Sarasota which I think is a bit far north and west for landfall but is just being used for comparison purposes. There's a lot of high end real estate on both sides of the state, but there is substantially more on the SE Coast than the SW Coast.
One thing I haven't really seen talked about is the topography of southern Florida. Factor in the shallow water of the everglades and Lake Okeechobee and I don't think Irma will weaken the same way it would if it came ashore in a different location. Was it Andrew or Katrina that maintained strength or actually strengthened a little when it came inland?
Katrina.
Maybe. Andrew made landfall at 926 mb on Elliott Key, 922 after Homestead.
