ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8481 Postby FixySLN » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:52 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS similar to the 06z and 00z runs:

Image


Northern jog at 72 or was that more of a jostle?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8482 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:52 pm

904 at 72 hours heading for Miami..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8483 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:53 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Looks pretty much the same as the 06z run.

Yep, the ridge imploded at 66 and the storm turns at 72
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8484 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:54 pm

18z GFS hour 78, picked up:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8485 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:54 pm

06/18z runs aren't resolved the same as 00/12z right? Not sure if its resolution or less data input.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8486 Postby BucMan2 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:54 pm

Aric- That seems quicker or is it me?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8487 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:55 pm

18z GFS hours 66->78:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8488 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:56 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:06/18z runs aren't resolved the same as 00/12z right? Not sure if its resolution or less data input.


Not true anymore. 99.9% of the incoming data is from satellites.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8489 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:56 pm

18z GFS hour 84:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8490 Postby lovingseason2013 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:56 pm

So the pressure is going to get down to 893, Im sorry 884!!!??? What would wind speeds be?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8491 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:58 pm

18z GFS trend:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8492 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:58 pm

Image

Can anyone explain what was happened last few hours? Seemed to go NE and faster than 12z then slows down by the time it reaches Miami. I'm guessing the 890 is from warm waters. Still too close to comfort for Miami.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8493 Postby Jevo » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:59 pm

GFS seems sold on the same FL solution as the 12z.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8494 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:59 pm

Was the ENTIRE 12z suite an outlier, then? Promets?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8495 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:59 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS trend:

Image

Is that a shift east?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8496 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:59 pm

No real trend in the GFS but I'm going to wait for the ensembles before I say much more
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8497 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:59 pm

18z GFS hour 90-96:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8498 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:00 pm

18z GFS, hour 102:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8499 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:02 pm

18z GFS hour 108:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8500 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:02 pm

that north turn is key and all it has to do is move west for a couple hours and its inland.. very precarious place to do a north turn like that..
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