ATL: TEN - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
UKmet starts developing this in 24hrs now. Strengthens it further then it lifts out on day 4.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
bocadude and blown away under the gun, all clear broward and dade..Bocadude85 wrote:12Z Canadian has a tropical storm landfall in Palm Beach.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:12Z Canadian has a tropical storm landfall in Palm Beach.
But it is the CMC and it is doing this in an area where the GFS progs high shear. Food for thought. Usually the CMC overdoes things. But there is a 500 mb high to the north, which is often favorable. We'll see.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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StormTracker
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:12Z Canadian has a tropical storm landfall in Palm Beach.
Now that was what was said about Andrew! Of course we all know how that turned out! Let's see now: 92L...hmm 1992...hmmm
Sorry for the Andrew comparison, I couldn't resist...ST
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alienstorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
If you look at the high definition Goes 16 slider you can see 2 potential LLC one south and further NE not sure which one will become dominant if any.
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Yes, I saw that other vortice. Not only is there external conflict, we have internal now....call the therapist 
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
StormTracker wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:12Z Canadian has a tropical storm landfall in Palm Beach.
Now that was what was said about Andrew! Of course we all know how that turned out! Let's see now: 92L...hmm 1992...hmmm
There is no reason to compare this to Andrew's setup as there is not forecasted to be the strength and persistence of the superstrong upper high that was then just offshore NC to its north. There is an upper high to the north of 92L but not quite like the one above Andrew. Am I wrong?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
LarryWx wrote:StormTracker wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:12Z Canadian has a tropical storm landfall in Palm Beach.
Now that was what was said about Andrew! Of course we all know how that turned out! Let's see now: 92L...hmm 1992...hmmm
There is no reason to compare this to Andrew's setup as there is not forecasted to be the strength and persistence of the superstrong upper high that was then just offshore NC to its north. There is an upper high to the north of 92L but not quite like the one above Andrew. Am I wrong?
You're completely right, still cant rule out a tropical storm or low end hurricane for Florida but no Andrew is going to come from this
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StormTracker
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
StormTracker wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:12Z Canadian has a tropical storm landfall in Palm Beach.
Now that was what was said about Andrew! Of course we all know how that turned out! Let's see now: 92L...hmm 1992...hmmm
LarryWx wrote:[There is no reason to compare this to Andrew's setup as there is not forecasted to be the strength and persistence of the superstrong upper high that was then just offshore NC to its north. There is an upper high to the north of 92L but not quite like the one above Andrew. Am I wrong?
I edited my post to say this, but I guess you caught it before the edit.
"Now that was what was said about Andrew! Of course we all know how that turned out! Let's see now: 92L...hmm 1992...hmmm
Sorry for the Andrew comparison, I couldn't resist...ST"
Last edited by StormTracker on Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
jlauderdal wrote:bocadude and blown away under the gun, all clear broward and dade..Bocadude85 wrote:12Z Canadian has a tropical storm landfall in Palm Beach.
TW or low end TS... Bring it on!!! If only the CMC was ever correct...
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ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
The 12z UK joins the CMC and GFS in developing a Hurricane north of 25N.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.6N 78.5W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2017 48 26.6N 78.5W 1012 23
0000UTC 23.08.2017 60 27.1N 79.5W 1010 25
1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 27.7N 79.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 28.7N 79.2W 1000 33
1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 30.0N 78.4W 995 43
0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 31.6N 76.8W 986 51
1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 33.4N 75.2W 979 57
0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 35.6N 73.1W 976 66
1200UTC 26.08.2017 144 37.5N 71.3W 972 72
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.6N 78.5W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2017 48 26.6N 78.5W 1012 23
0000UTC 23.08.2017 60 27.1N 79.5W 1010 25
1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 27.7N 79.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 28.7N 79.2W 1000 33
1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 30.0N 78.4W 995 43
0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 31.6N 76.8W 986 51
1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 33.4N 75.2W 979 57
0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 35.6N 73.1W 976 66
1200UTC 26.08.2017 144 37.5N 71.3W 972 72
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
BOC & N Atlantic the sweet spots...
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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
ColdMiser123 wrote:The 12z UK joins the CMC and GFS in developing a Hurricane north of 25N.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.6N 78.5W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2017 48 26.6N 78.5W 1012 23
0000UTC 23.08.2017 60 27.1N 79.5W 1010 25
1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 27.7N 79.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 28.7N 79.2W 1000 33
1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 30.0N 78.4W 995 43
0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 31.6N 76.8W 986 51
1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 33.4N 75.2W 979 57
0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 35.6N 73.1W 976 66
1200UTC 26.08.2017 144 37.5N 71.3W 972 72
right offshore palm beach
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StormTracker
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
ColdMiser123 wrote:The 12z UK joins the CMC and GFS in developing a Hurricane north of 25N.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.6N 78.5W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2017 48 26.6N 78.5W 1012 23
0000UTC 23.08.2017 60 27.1N 79.5W 1010 25
1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 27.7N 79.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 28.7N 79.2W 1000 33
1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 30.0N 78.4W 995 43
0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 31.6N 76.8W 986 51
1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 33.4N 75.2W 979 57
0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 35.6N 73.1W 976 66
1200UTC 26.08.2017 144 37.5N 71.3W 972 72
Looks like the UK/CMC/GFS are going with the northern vort?
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
The CMC has two things wrong:
1. Initial low-level vorticity is too strong
2. Shows the invest building enough convection to overpower the ULL rather than the ULL inducing shear to prevent development.
It is not just with this invest but seems these two things above are the main reasons the CMC is usually overbullish. You would think the software could be fixed to better handle 1. and 2.
1. Initial low-level vorticity is too strong
2. Shows the invest building enough convection to overpower the ULL rather than the ULL inducing shear to prevent development.
It is not just with this invest but seems these two things above are the main reasons the CMC is usually overbullish. You would think the software could be fixed to better handle 1. and 2.
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alienstorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
It is entrained in the ULL so it will be difficult for development
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
12Z Euro showing a much stronger vort prior to crossing Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
The northwestern Vort is throwing outflow boundaries.
Southern vort is dry again but well defined.
Any of the models that develop the southern vort recurve east of Florida?
Southern vort is dry again but well defined.
Any of the models that develop the southern vort recurve east of Florida?
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