ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blazess556]

Questionable initial intensity for sure. Satellite suggests 130mph is conservative as this has a high end Cat 4/Cat 5 signature.

[gtalum]

5pm advisory is unsurprisingly conservative at 130/cat4

Still biting on the turn well east of Florida. I hope they're right.

[NotSparta]

"Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye." -5PM discussion. Remind anyone of a discussion from another storm?

Wilma:

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90
KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD
COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE
WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE
LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY
AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF
FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA
TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.
HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL
COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS
SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA
WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON
WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT
ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT


$$
NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/di ... .014.shtml?

[johngaltfla]

Ugh. All of my favorite islands are being wiped out one at a time. Dominica is a beautiful place and this will be horrific. Pray for everyone in the path of this monster.

[srainhoutx]

Maybe recon will go in and prove me wrong, but based on the evidence that is a very poor initial intensity from NHC. The pressure was rapidly dropping and the satellite appearance is closing in on category 5. I would have gone with 125 or 130 knots.

Jack gave a lot of 'hints' that his Update is likely too conservative. RECON will verify before too long.

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and
this featured has recently become better defined in visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported an
intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that
rapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.

After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a
motion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion
may be even farther to the right. A weak subtropical ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward
for the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward
Islands near Dominica during the next few hours. This is expected
to be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near
the Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto
Rico around the 48 h point. Once north of Puerto Rico, the
hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to
the south of the various consensus models.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. The
intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the
guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt
in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach
category 5 status. Later in the forecast period, land interaction
and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some
weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the
possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would
affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.

It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,
the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area
near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will
not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an
eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could
expand to an area larger than forecast.

If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available,
Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.1N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[flamingosun]

And the disquieting news just keeps coming...
Hurricane force wind field has expanded a bit, according to the 5 PM advisory

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

[SunnyThoughts]

Will the interaction with Dominica happen before recon gets there? I sure hope everyone there will be safe. So many islands affected with storms this year, so sad.

[ronyan]

I think Beven may have used the "dreaded pinhole eye" phrase in more than just Wilma and this storm but I don't remember which. He seems to be fond of that phrase when the situation warrants it.

[blazess556]

I would have gone 155 mph, noting THAT may be conservative, with its look and raw ADT numbers.

Also, it's slightly frustrating we're flying the HH more frequently into that hideous blob with an exposed center in the West Atlantic than Maria.

[1900hurricane]

I probably would have gone 125 kt/941 mb for 21Z.

[EquusStorm]

If the 130 in the advisory was in knots, I'd say that's not way too far off, but yeah, it clearly passed 130mph a while ago. I was really wishing that would happen after the islands...

[Ken711]

If it follows Jose's track north (minus the loop), could water the temps and shear it would face provide an environment for a possible decrease in intensity?

[BYG Jacob]

If it follows Jose's track north (minus the loop), could water the temps and shear it would face provide an environment for a possible decrease in intensity?

No, whatever water Jose up welled has been replaced by now.

[SunnyThoughts]

I would go with 130 kt. 940 mb. Probably too conservative as well.

[DTMEDIC]

Ugh. All of my favorite islands are being wiped out one at a time. Dominica is a beautiful place and this will be horrific. Pray for everyone in the path of this monster.

I was just saying the same thing. We went there back in 1996 and there was plenty of evidence they were recovering from a storm then too. It was my favorite of all the islands our cruise visited because it was just beautiful and not quite as touristy. Not that ALL islands weren't beautiful, but there was just something special about Dominica. So sad.

[bob rulz]

Also, it's slightly frustrating we're flying the HH more frequently into that hideous blob with an exposed center in the West Atlantic than Maria.

I agree, but I would imagine it could have something to do with where the planes are stationed. Wouldn't it take time to get more planes down to the Caribbean to be able to fly them more frequently? Especially since this hurricane developed so rapidly, and the Hurricane Hunters have been extremely active lately.

Just a guess though, I might be wrong with that, but it makes sense in my head.

[Stormtrack03]

I would go with 130 kt. 940 mb. Probably too conservative as well.

We shall know shortly once recon arrives.

[drezee]

Touch and go in the islands. Large convective complex wrapped around the eye and angular momentum pulled it N. Same complex will pull the Eye west over the next few hours. Stepping WNW...not a straight line. One more might make it miss to the North of Dominica...i pray so

[RL3AO]

Also, it's slightly frustrating we're flying the HH more frequently into that hideous blob with an exposed center in the West Atlantic than Maria.

I agree, but I would imagine it could have something to do with where the planes are stationed. Wouldn't it take time to get more planes down to the Caribbean to be able to fly them more frequently? Especially since this hurricane developed so rapidly, and the Hurricane Hunters have been extremely active lately.

Just a guess though, I might be wrong with that, but it makes sense in my head.

Also today's flights were planned a couple days ago when it still appeared possible that Jose could be a threat to the NE US.

[artist]

Also, it's slightly frustrating we're flying the HH more frequently into that hideous blob with an exposed center in the West Atlantic than Maria.

I agree, but I would imagine it could have something to do with where the planes are stationed. Wouldn't it take time to get more planes down to the Caribbean to be able to fly them more frequently? Especially since this hurricane developed so rapidly, and the Hurricane Hunters have been extremely active lately.

Just a guess though, I might be wrong with that, but it makes sense in my head.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2 ... 182101.txt
They appear ready for takeoff