ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTPatrick]

Still chugging west....I think the appearance of south of west was an illusion for sure.but maybe not. Either way if she don't gain latitude soon Cuba is going to be taking one for the team.

[Aric Dunn]

at this point recon has already done the pass but we cant see it

[gatorcane]

yeah looks to be wobbling onshore and appears to be slowing. There can be some implications as far as possibly allowing the weakness to develop north of Irma sooner which could allow a quicker turn north instead of more gradual which might favor the eastern side of the guidance envelope.

[BYG Jacob]

#Irma is making landfall in Cuba-6th Cat 4 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since 2000. Others were Michelle, Dennis, Gustav, Ike, Matthew

Irma is a cat 5

Well, the last official NHC advisory is the 8pm with 155mph winds, so while it strengthened after that advisory, that's still the last official number for now. It'll probably get adjusted after the fact, though.

I thought they upgraded her at the latest advisory? Unless that was somebody else who upgraded her.

[NDG]

well it needs to start turning back wnw to stay off shore. another couple hours of this and it will be onshore.

So far is doing what the 12z Euro forecasted for it to make landfall on those Cays in northern Central Cuban, then turn more WNW and ride along the coast with at least half of its circulation inland, it forecasted it to go completely offshore tomorrow night around 7PM-10PM.
It shows it be back over water for 14 hrs or so before making a final landfall near Everglades City, its pressure dropping 24 mb after entering the FL Straights.

Maybe it's just the eye contracting, but it looks to take a hard SW wobble on the slider. But the slider is jumping all over the place on my computer.

On Cuban radar looks to be almost straight west heading.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: yeah looks to be wobbling onshore and appears to be slowing. There can be some implications as far as possibly allowing the weakness to develop north of Irma sooner which could allow a quicker turn north instead of more gradual which might favor the eastern side of the guidance envelope.

yep I mentioned that earlier..

[bahamaswx]

Apparently the coastline of Inagua is littered with miles and miles of dead fish now that Irma has passed. Is this a common occurance?

[OntarioEggplant]

at this point recon has already done the pass but we cant see it

I'm getting really irritated with these comms issues today

[Aric Dunn]

weird winds are lower on the NE side.. odd

[meriland29]

Wait, why wont recon slow most recent pass?

[dukeblue219]

at this point recon has already done the pass but we cant see it

I'm getting really irritated with these comms issues today

Big data dump just came in.
012600 2229N 07708W 6973 02882 9766 +107 +107 130104 107 085 014 00
012630 2228N 07709W 6958 02883 9750 +106 +106 130109 110 087 012 00
012700 2227N 07710W 6964 02859 9740 +103 +103 130113 115 087 029 00
012730 2226N 07712W 6973 02826 9712 +106 +106 134119 123 095 030 00
012800 2225N 07713W 6960 02818 9684 +112 +112 137122 126 094 043 00
012830 2224N 07714W 6985 02765 9649 +118 +118 138121 123 102 059 00
012900 2223N 07715W 6974 02755 9619 +123 +123 140120 125 106 059 03
012930 2222N 07716W 6977 02723 9589 +126 +126 141122 124 /// /// 03
013000 2221N 07717W 6976 02698 9557 +129 +129 141121 122 /// /// 03
013030 2220N 07718W 6976 02666 9522 +131 +131 147125 128 127 047 03
013100 2219N 07719W 6973 02629 9472 +133 +133 146115 127 /// /// 03
013130 2218N 07720W 7027 02531 9447 +131 //// 153101 109 139 014 05
013200 2217N 07721W 6999 02539 //// +127 //// 145088 094 137 005 01
013230 2216N 07722W 6957 02566 9349 +141 //// 148076 083 127 001 01
013300 2215N 07724W 6979 02526 9325 +144 //// 147064 072 104 004 05
013330 2214N 07725W 6968 02520 //// +150 //// 142053 063 072 004 01
013400 2213N 07726W 6957 02522 9271 +161 +159 141044 049 052 003 00

137 kt without an SFMR flag

[otowntiger]

#Irma is making landfall in Cuba-6th Cat 4 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since 2000. Others were Michelle, Dennis, Gustav, Ike, Matthew

Irma is a cat 5

Well, the last official NHC advisory is the 8pm with 155mph winds, so while it strengthened after that advisory, that's still the last official number for now. It'll probably get adjusted after the fact, though.

Now that it is plowing onto the Cuban shore it may not get a chance to get back to a 5. If it spends much time there, it will get downgraded for sure.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906331542598938625




John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 7m7 minutes ago

New from @NWSMiami: Severe to catastrophic impacts from Irma likely across South Florida

"Lake Okeechobee must be monitored for flooding"

[Hammy]

Irma is a cat 5

Well, the last official NHC advisory is the 8pm with 155mph winds, so while it strengthened after that advisory, that's still the last official number for now. It'll probably get adjusted after the fact, though.

Now that it is plowing onto the Cuban shore it may not get a chance to get back to a 5. If it spends much time there, it will get downgraded for sure.

BT showing 140kt.

[SunnyThoughts]

I did see where early 00z model guidance was initiated @ 140 knots.

[Aric Dunn]

it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..

it did not move very much this last hour

[Hammy]

it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..

What are the track implications of any slowdown at this stage?

[MacTavish]

The circulation is being caught up on the terrain to the southeast. my belief is, thats what is causing it to pull towards the coast. seen it happen before. Im guessing in about 2-3 hours it resumes its modeled course.

[AxaltaRacing24]

it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..

What are the track implications of any slowdown at this stage?

Might not get as far west.

[Blown Away]

Looks like Irma moving SW, maybe miss the forecast point to the S, and landfall in Cuba... Yikes for those folks in N Cuba... I think further delay in the turn may push Irma farther W, not sure...