ATL: IRMA - Models

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS ensemble mean right through SE Florida so looks to have shifted west some.

The good news keeps rolling in. Gator & Steve are officially off my holiday card list.

MW

Sorry for the bad news...at least there is some variance:

[Bocadude85]

0z NAVGEM shifts west with a landfall in Ft.Myers

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017090700&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=0

[AutoPenalti]

0z NAVGEM shifts west with a landfall in Ft.Myers

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017090700&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=0

Umm, again?

[Steve]

Oh and Mike, if you didn't look at HMON's simulated radar, you won't have to try to forget that either. It just like cuts in and destroys Miami and cuts back out until the GA Border. I haven't really much followed the HMON until Harvey. So I don't know if I trust it even a little yet. But this is the kind of radar you only want to see in a very secure structure:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=598

^^
Per that output, 900's at landfall which is around 81 hours (5am Sun?).

[Alyono]

All I can think about is what the mets were saying about Katrina on August 25th, 2005, when the models were showing that it was going to the panhandle/big bend and that there was no way that Louisiana was going to get a hit, and 4 days later, she made landfall at Biloxi/New Orleans.

it's not 2005 any longer. The days of busts like that, aside from Joaquin situations, are long gone for the most part. The 3 day average error now is what the 1 day error was 20 years ago. 3 day forecasts are quite reliable

[Aric Dunn]

All I can think about is what the mets were saying about Katrina on August 25th, 2005, when the models were showing that it was going to the panhandle/big bend and that there was no way that Louisiana was going to get a hit, and 4 days later, she made landfall at Biloxi/New Orleans.

it's not 2005 any longer. The days of busts like that, aside from Joaquin situations, are long gone for the most part. The 3 day average error now is what the 1 day error was 20 years ago. 3 day forecasts are quite reliable

That is a bit of a rash statement. the models have improved but by no means are they good enough to say "the days of busts like that" are gone.. it has happened every year... so please dont.

[Blown Away]

00Z GFS ensemble mean right through SE Florida so looks to have shifted west some.

Can u post a graphic?

[psyclone]

All I can think about is what the mets were saying about Katrina on August 25th, 2005, when the models were showing that it was going to the panhandle/big bend and that there was no way that Louisiana was going to get a hit, and 4 days later, she made landfall at Biloxi/New Orleans.

it's not 2005 any longer. The days of busts like that, aside from Joaquin situations, are long gone for the most part. The 3 day average error now is what the 1 day error was 20 years ago. 3 day forecasts are quite reliable

That is a bit of a rash statement. the models have improved but by no means are they good enough to say "the days of busts like that" are gone.. it has happened every year... so please dont.

Yeah but it's not coming to Louisiana. It's time to stay on target

[Alyono]

seems like the non GFS models are shifting west tonight. Not sure why the GFS shifted east

[txwatcher91]

seems like the non GFS models are shifting west tonight. Not sure why the GFS shifted east

The trough in the NE is hanging back more on the GFS, NAM, and CMC runs which indices the faster N movement and weakens the ridge faster.

[Steve]

Blinhart,

If that's what you're hearing, you should probably be ignoring the people's advice that are telling you that. HWRF with I think an assist from the GFS, still hasn't made landfall by 114 and is east of the GA/SC border. I don't recall the HWRF missing this far east so far with Irma.

Ends with a 947mb Cat 3 (with a bigger surge probably) heading in very close to Charleston, SC:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[txwatcher91]

Well, the Euro is running. Through hour 24 it’s similar but maybe a touch faster and a tad north.

[OntarioEggplant]

seems like the non GFS models are shifting west tonight. Not sure why the GFS shifted east

It's the GFS... It breaks down ridges way too fast as per usual.

[txwatcher91]

seems like the non GFS models are shifting west tonight. Not sure why the GFS shifted east

It's the GFS... It breaks down ridges way too fast as per usual.

No, it has to do with the NE trough being further south and stronger. It has been trending towards that 4 runs in a row now. Whether it’s right or not who knows, but that’s the reason behind the GFS shifting east.

[NFLnut]

Well, the Euro is running. Through hour 24 it’s similar but maybe a touch faster and a tad north.

It's been almost 24 hrs and I'm tired. When do the Euro graphics magically show up here?

NM: My tired brain just found the models at Tropical.

[lando]

Looks slightly w, next frame is the big one

[txwatcher91]

Well, the Euro is running. Through hour 24 it’s similar but maybe a touch faster and a tad north.

It's been almost 24 hrs and I'm tired. When do the Euro graphics magically show up here?

Euro slightly east and north at 72.

[Steve]

Blinhart,

If that's what you're hearing, you should probably be ignoring the people's advice that are telling you that. HWRF with I think an assist from the GFS, still hasn't made landfall by 114 and is east of the GA/SC border. I don't recall the HWRF missing this far east so far with Irma.

No, it is mainly a gut feeling. I am not believing that this system will not hit Florida in some fashion. But I'm also not believing that it is going to stay East of Florida. I believe it will hit the Keys, and might (a big MIGHT) make a turn to the N and then NNE, but believe it will move from a WNW to a NW, to a NNW, then North before making landfall anywhere between Sabine Pass and Mobile Bay, then finally turning NNE.

It can't though. There's not even a remote chance. I think that's where you have to really look at the weather and not go with a gut. Katia will go out SW, because she can't even come up this far north. It was obvious that the NC Gulf would be protected last week when the 200mb stream was shown in most models gushing across for days 5-7 or so (which is now into the next few). BoC storm has to hook SW. And Nothing could get this far west from the SE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-animated.gif

Look at the WV. 0% chance.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

72 hour ECMWF. Inconclusive. Slightly N of 12Z and deeper at 924mb vs. 931mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[AutoPenalti]

Well, the Euro is running. Through hour 24 it’s similar but maybe a touch faster and a tad north.

It's been almost 24 hrs and I'm tired. When do the Euro graphics magically show up here?

Euro slightly east and north at 72.
https://i.imgur.com/ZVkPGxQ.png

Loooks faster..

[txwatcher91]

For all the bad rap the GFS gets... its 3 day position is identical to the Euro. That’s a pretty good.