ATL: IRMA - Models

[txwatcher91]

For all the bad rap the GFS gets... its 3 day position is identical to the Euro. That’s a pretty good.

[txwatcher91]

Hour 96 the Euro appears to have moved basically due N. I don’t have 6 hour panels but assume Miami would be in the northern eyewall.

[ColdMiser123]

This 0z Euro run ends up being nearly identical to the previous run. Horrendous run for Miami with the center just inland.

[shah83]

No, it's northwest.

We need to see 6hr interval. Is it moving straight north-northwest, or did it go north and bend northwest later?

edit: Thanks for the 6hr intervals!

[Hammy]

So it seems the Euro is trending west and the GFS east, are the two models actually spreading further apart?

[AdamFirst]

Identical to previous run so far, and along NHC track up to 96 hours.

[Alyono]

Hour 96 the Euro appears to have moved basically due N. I don’t have 6 hour panels but assume Miami would be in the northern eyewall.

waiting for the 3 hourly panels to come in here. I'm running a bit behind TT

[AutoPenalti]

Euro is about as identical as it gets from the 12z thru 96 hours

[tgenius]

Euro is about as identical as it gets from the 12z thru 96 hours

That is a troubling run to be that close 12 hours apart. In essence we would be looking at cat4/5 into metro Dade and broward. Yikes!

[Aric Dunn]

So it seems the Euro is trending west and the GFS east, are the two models actually spreading further apart?

yeah as you know they are often opposite of each other. however even the euro is showing a deepening hurricane ( of course not the craziness like the GFS) but SE Florida is not looking good.

[ColdMiser123]

Second landfall near Jacksonville.

[shah83]

this is a bit of an east move from the 12z at SE florida landfall, but 120hr mark shows a storm that never makes it back out.

[ColdMiser123]

Miami gusts to 120 KT+ on the 0z ECMWF.

[Steve]

Euro brings the storm up and into Georgia for part 2. That's a little different from some of the other scenarios. It's moving NNW/NW and coming in around 924mb on the low res at first landfall in FL. Looks like Cat 4 on that, but it could be Cat 5 just as easily. The hit on Georgia on the low-res is 970's so possibly Cat 2 as the NHC has suggested. Bad news for Miami from the European.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=500

[shah83]

Grinds the entire Florida coastline, only surge threat north of FL

[Alyono]

finally got the 3 hourly panels in. the EC has a landfall around 12Z Sunday morning and then pushes into Miami around 14Z

[tgenius]

finally got the 3 hourly panels in. the EC has a landfall around 12Z Sunday morning and then pushes into Miami around 14Z

Alyono at that entry vector what kind of storm surge would we expect in Miami? Miami would also be getting Northern eyewall as well, correct?

[Bocadude85]

Well after seeing the 0z Euro the shutters will be going up tomorrow morning here in Boca Raton.

[Alyono]

finally got the 3 hourly panels in. the EC has a landfall around 12Z Sunday morning and then pushes into Miami around 14Z

Alyono at that entry vector what kind of storm surge would we expect in Miami? Miami would also be getting Northern eyewall as well, correct?

I do not see much on the ocean side of Miami Beach. The east coast of Florida is simply not surge prone. Take Jeanne. Surge peaked at 6 feet, similar to what would occur for a Caribbean Island. Biscayne Bay would have more issues. I could see 10 feet in the bay, which could cause major issues for the islands within the bay, as well as the bay side of Miami Beach

[Blown Away]

I've been hoping not to have to shutter up, big job, looks like a go ATM...