ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

Outflow remains awesome.

What parts are the outflow exactly?

The parts/bands shooting out of the CDO (i.e. The poleward tail sides of a hurricane if you look at a drawing for example)

What is that rotation, I think it was counter clockwise to the north of Irma?

[northjaxpro]

Upper Level Low well to the northwest of Irma.

[Blinhart]

Outflow remains awesome.

Look at that ULL spin to her NW.

Isn't that what is suppose to push her WSW?

[KWT]

 https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/903394864343212032

Very good information, a decent number of them end up hitting the USA as well, certainly a higher percentage than you'd expect given its current position.

Eye popping out on Vis.loops as well now, so whatever caused some brief degradation of the presentation its clearly over again.

[Evenstar]

Either way this is bad for anyone in my family regardless of whether this hits the EC or Miami/Coral Gables.. Probably won't be a fish at this point, but I'm holding on hope. Family and myself here in NOVA all the way down to my family in the Chesapeake/VA Beach and Miami Dade areas are all wary. This is not good.

This is the first time I've started to feel a genuine and pervasive sense of foreboding. For me, previous storms have been almost like educational exercises (not minimizing their impact on others), but this storm worries me.

[cycloneye]

Wow.

@EricBlake12
Never made a forecast before for a major #hurricane for 5 days so far east! #Irma is uncommonly strong there and should be watched closely.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/903367024163905537

[KWT]

Yeah Cycloneye, I suspect this will go down as one of those real classic long lasting CV hurricanes, given how far east it is if it can avoid the islands and take a long track there is a fair chance this stays a major for the majority of its lives, obviously EWRC's could slow that down but other than that, its kind of looking like an exceptional hurricane to me, could see a few records fall from Irma...

[Evenstar]

Aric your latest thoughts for HURRICANE cat 3 Irma for those who lived Lesser Antilles? Thanks. Be exhaustif you can we will appreciate all the informations in terms of intensity and possible track because of we need good informations in case of.

Thing is, and you know it, that beyond day three the error in possible tracks is getting pretty large and after day 5 even larger.
5 days from now Irma should still be out in the ocean.
We have a forecast from wxman57, a very good meteorologist in my book, I trust his forecasts.
Next to that I would say we have to wait until the weekend for accurate forecasts from NHC and other professionals.

Reading the thread(s) here can be entertaining and sometimes informative. Real information comes from the professionals.

One way or another I would say it's a good thing to prepare for a possible hurricane landfall. If Irma leaves us alone great, if not let's be prepared.

Not trying to be quarrelsome, but we have several amazing ProMets here and a remarkable collection of very educated, unpaid weather geniuses (and I do mean geniuses). Much like we do with the models, I take what is said here and what is said to the public and make my own call based on that. I feel lucky to have what could be a lifesaving resource here at Storm2k. And yes, it can be very entertaining too...

[GCANE]

The ULL to the NW is forecast to move west in tandem with Irma and have minimal effect.

[redneck51]

Not trying to be quarrelsome, but we have several amazing ProMets here

Exactly! They are among the professionals I meant.
Also, I fully agree that S2K is, because of so many professionals a great source of information. This site has been my first stop every day in the season for at least 10 years.

[Bocadude85]

 https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/903394864343212032

Very good information, a decent number of them end up hitting the USA as well, certainly a higher percentage than you'd expect given its current position.

Eye popping out on Vis.loops as well now, so whatever caused some brief degradation of the presentation its clearly over again.

Of the ones in that graphic that did hit the USA the majority hit Florida....

[Ken711]

Either way this is bad for anyone in my family regardless of whether this hits the EC or Miami/Coral Gables.. Probably won't be a fish at this point, but I'm holding on hope. Family and myself here in NOVA all the way down to my family in the Chesapeake/VA Beach and Miami Dade areas are all wary. This is not good.

This is the first time I've started to feel a genuine and pervasive sense of foreboding. For me, previous storms have been almost like educational exercises (not minimizing their impact on others), but this storm worries me.

I've been thinking it could mimic Isabel in 2003 only stronger.

[Evenstar]

Either way this is bad for anyone in my family regardless of whether this hits the EC or Miami/Coral Gables.. Probably won't be a fish at this point, but I'm holding on hope. Family and myself here in NOVA all the way down to my family in the Chesapeake/VA Beach and Miami Dade areas are all wary. This is not good.

This is the first time I've started to feel a genuine and pervasive sense of foreboding. For me, previous storms have been almost like educational exercises (not minimizing their impact on others), but this storm worries me.

I've been thinking it could mimic Isabel in 2003 only stronger.

God forbid. SERIOUSLY. God forbid.

[GCANE]

2C core centered about 250mb.
However, no cold air between the warm core and the boundary layer.
This is making the lift of warm air parcels from the surface (lapse rate) minimal which is inhibiting convection and strengthening.
Given this and mid-layer dry air around Irma, IMHO we may see a leveling off of any further intensification for the next day or two.

[eastcoastFL]

 https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/903394864343212032

Very good information, a decent number of them end up hitting the USA as well, certainly a higher percentage than you'd expect given its current position.

Eye popping out on Vis.loops as well now, so whatever caused some brief degradation of the presentation its clearly over again.

Doesn't make me feel so hot that all the more intense storms hit Florida on this map

[chaser1]

'Ol Irma seems quite content just riding along that 28C Isotherm. I'd guess the young Gal will likely maintain present level of intensity until crossing between 45W-50W. Here's where the octane looks to increase a tad and i'd guess when we see her reach Cat. 4. That cut off low to its northwest looks to be filling and just getting squeezed out of the way. I dont think it'll continue to drop south ahead of Irma but likely soon make a small cyclonic loop and be forced back north and into the Westerlies. Beyond that feature, I'm just not seeing much/anything to inhibit further strengthening (other than land itself) for at least several days. Hmmmm, I'm beginning to question if my low pressure guess (919mb I think?) might not have been quite low enough?! Oh well, I'll just sit pat with my guess, and if I don't win the million dollars??? Hey, the tax implications would've just been a nightmare to deal with anyhow LOL. Feels really odd to watch such a strong system so far east, but one that has the potential to impact so many.

[chaser1]

2C core centered about 250mb.
However, no cold air between the warm core and the boundary layer.
This is making the lift of warm air parcels from the surface (lapse rate) minimal which is inhibiting convection and strengthening.
Given this and mid-layer dry air around Irma, IMHO we may see a leveling off of any further intensification for the next day or two.

I think thats a very legit observation

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/903394864343212032

Very good information, a decent number of them end up hitting the USA as well, certainly a higher percentage than you'd expect given its current position.

Eye popping out on Vis.loops as well now, so whatever caused some brief degradation of the presentation its clearly over again.

Doesn't make me feel so hot that all the more intense storms hit Florida on this map

The Euro is pretty much down the middle of the cluster through Florida/Cuba.

[Kingarabian]

31/2345 UTC 17.5N 35.0W T5.0/5.5 IRMA -- Atlantic

[eastcoastFL]

Very good information, a decent number of them end up hitting the USA as well, certainly a higher percentage than you'd expect given its current position.

Eye popping out on Vis.loops as well now, so whatever caused some brief degradation of the presentation its clearly over again.

Doesn't make me feel so hot that all the more intense storms hit Florida on this map

The Euro is pretty much down the middle of the cluster through Florida/Cuba.

I saw that too. Last year with Mathew the stores got so crazy. Do you think I'm over doing it if I go out tomorrow and start getting water and batteries at BJ'S just in case? I hate going hurricane shopping when the masses start to figure it out. Ok so I guess my question is if it's too early?