ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kat5]

This storm hasn't given a hint of a northward path. If you live inDestin,FL and east to Tampa, you are likely in its path. Be alert as there isn't any evidence of a turn yet on the steering map and this continues west shift by the models will continue until landfall.

[tronbunny]

Given satellite trends, Euro is going to be a little too far west I think.

agreed. its too fast first of all.

I cannot see the shortwave having any real effect. It's almost as if the eastern ridge is building back west.

[Aric Dunn]

This storm hasn't given a hint of a northward path. If you live inDestin,FL and east to Tampa, you are likely in its path. Be alert as there isn't any evidence of a turn yet on the steering map and this continues west shift by the models will continue until landfall.

what do you mean ?

you mean this weakness ?

[Kat5]

This storm hasn't given a hint of a northward path. If you live inDestin,FL and east to Tampa, you are likely in its path. Be alert as there isn't any evidence of a turn yet on the steering map and this continues west shift by the models will continue until landfall.

what do you mean ?

you mean this weakness ?

Well based on that map, we would had seen a slowdown and more noticeable northward movement. It's neither one is happening.

[Aric Dunn]

Given satellite trends, Euro is going to be a little too far west I think.

agreed. its too fast first of all.

I cannot see the shortwave having any real effect. It's almost as if the eastern ridge is building back west.

I can tell looking at water vapor and other various things the two shortwaves do seem to be moving a little to slow.. but we will see.

[rickybobby]

Don't know if it has anything to do with the hurricane but it's raining in Daytona and gusts of wind for the past 15 minutes.

[mph101]

I don't know what you guys are looking at. This ragged old sea hag looks like her stumble and near stall out in northern Cuba with dry air intrusion is going to finally kill this beast off. This is the best I've seen this storm in a week. Don't get me wrong I think earlier tonight Irma was impressive, but after the hook into Cuba the storm looks ragged and old, like a dead shrimp. I would be surprised to see this storm recover based on the Gulf Water Vapor satellite I am looking at. Time to wind down and all the 78 dewpoint- 35 C water in the world can't allow her to escape whats a tad N/NW of Tampa. Going to bed but it wouldn't shock me if the old storm is pushed east/NE out and under Florida to fish land

[Evil Jeremy]

This storm hasn't given a hint of a northward path. If you live inDestin,FL and east to Tampa, you are likely in its path. Be alert as there isn't any evidence of a turn yet on the steering map and this continues west shift by the models will continue until landfall.

what do you mean ?

you mean this weakness ?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm5.GIF

Well based on that map, we would had seen a slowdown and more noticeable northward movement. It's neither one is happening.

Actually, both have been observed since roughly 10pm.

[Airboy]

Looks to me it's moving in the track like the models have said it would move but a bit slower I think.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03115325fa7ec12df19573ef2237e9aa16a33ff8f5ca2a6fc2b4f168b445123a.gif

Storm is definitely going north of due west. Gaining latitude blatantly obvious in this radar loop.

Here is what the latest forecast says about Hurricane Irma’s predicted path:

Irma is moving toward the west near 12mph (19kph).

[bluespiderfl]

so latest model looks like it almost pulls Brevard county out of the cone... I feel terrible for all the east coast folks that evacuated to the center and west coast, they are now directly in the path...

[Kat5]

what do you mean ?

you mean this weakness ?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm5.GIF

Well based on that map, we would had seen a slowdown and more noticeable northward movement. It's neither one is happening.

Actually, both have been observed since roughly 10pm.

NHC says W at 12. Not sure what you are looking at.

[Patricia]

so latest model looks like it almost pulls Brevard county out of the cone... I feel terrible for all the east coast folks that evacuated to the center and west coast, they are now directly in the path...

Right! What a nightmare for everyone trying to do what they thought was best by evacuating central and west. This is a mess!

[Patricia]

I meant evacuating to the central or west

[Aric Dunn]

Well based on that map, we would had seen a slowdown and more noticeable northward movement. It's neither one is happening.

Actually, both have been observed since roughly 10pm.

NHC says W at 12. Not sure what you are looking at.

NHC DOES A LONG TERM AVERAGE FOR MOTION... SO far this has been a short term motion..

[Evil Jeremy]

Well based on that map, we would had seen a slowdown and more noticeable northward movement. It's neither one is happening.

Actually, both have been observed since roughly 10pm.

NHC says W at 12. Not sure what you are looking at.

This: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03 ... 45123a.gif

And This: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... A-IRMA.png

[txwatcher91]

I don't know what you guys are looking at. This ragged old sea hag looks like her stumble and near stall out in northern Cuba with dry air intrusion is going to finally kill this beast off. This is the best I've seen this storm in a week. Don't get me wrong I think earlier tonight Irma was impressive, but after the hook into Cuba the storm looks ragged and old, like a dead shrimp. I would be surprised to see this storm recover based on the Gulf Water Vapor satellite I am looking at. Time to wind down and all the 78 dewpoint- 35 C water in the world can't allow her to escape whats a tad N/NW of Tampa. Going to bed but it wouldn't shock me if the old storm is pushed east/NE out and under Florida to fish land

There is nothing that pushes this away from Florida and into fish land. No model or data even remotely indicates this. Furthermore, all the models are hinting at explosive intensification as this clears the Cuban coast. It may be a little ragged right now but it won’t be once it hits those open waters, it will recover quickly.

[Kat5]

Actually, both have been observed since roughly 10pm.

NHC says W at 12. Not sure what you are looking at.

This: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03 ... 45123a.gif

And This: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... A-IRMA.png

I'll wait for another center pass, might be just a wobble. The WV shows nothing significant to draw her North at this given time. That western edge of the high has really been underestimated.

[brghteys1216]

Is it possible the ridge could erode out quicker like the GFS?

[Aric Dunn]

could see a little up tick in the convection as IRMA approaches that little notch in the cuban coast. it should but the southern eyewal brieftly back over water. if it actually has an effect .. who knows