ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

I don't know what you guys are looking at. This ragged old sea hag looks like her stumble and near stall out in northern Cuba with dry air intrusion is going to finally kill this beast off. This is the best I've seen this storm in a week. Don't get me wrong I think earlier tonight Irma was impressive, but after the hook into Cuba the storm looks ragged and old, like a dead shrimp. I would be surprised to see this storm recover based on the Gulf Water Vapor satellite I am looking at. Time to wind down and all the 78 dewpoint- 35 C water in the world can't allow her to escape whats a tad N/NW of Tampa. Going to bed but it wouldn't shock me if the old storm is pushed east/NE out and under Florida to fish land

Lmao

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks to be moving wnw.

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[Aric Dunn]

Looks to be moving wnw.

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agreed its been a few hours now of at least 285..

as long as it does not gain more latitude it will keep weakening.. .

[tronbunny]

I don't know what you guys are looking at. This ragged old sea hag looks like her stumble and near stall out in northern Cuba with dry air intrusion is going to finally kill this beast off. This is the best I've seen this storm in a week. Don't get me wrong I think earlier tonight Irma was impressive, but after the hook into Cuba the storm looks ragged and old, like a dead shrimp. I would be surprised to see this storm recover based on the Gulf Water Vapor satellite I am looking at. Time to wind down and all the 78 dewpoint- 35 C water in the world can't allow her to escape whats a tad N/NW of Tampa. Going to bed but it wouldn't shock me if the old storm is pushed east/NE out and under Florida to fish land

This slow loop shows how Irma has pulled in some dry surface air from the NW quad and is moving it into the core.
Looks like we'll see some structure degradation for a few hours, maybe even a downgrade for the 5am. Just seems like a temporary fluctuation, though.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't know what you guys are looking at. This ragged old sea hag looks like her stumble and near stall out in northern Cuba with dry air intrusion is going to finally kill this beast off. This is the best I've seen this storm in a week. Don't get me wrong I think earlier tonight Irma was impressive, but after the hook into Cuba the storm looks ragged and old, like a dead shrimp. I would be surprised to see this storm recover based on the Gulf Water Vapor satellite I am looking at. Time to wind down and all the 78 dewpoint- 35 C water in the world can't allow her to escape whats a tad N/NW of Tampa. Going to bed but it wouldn't shock me if the old storm is pushed east/NE out and under Florida to fish land

This slow loop shows how Irma has pulled in some dry surface air from the NW quad and is moving it into the core.
Looks like we'll see some structure degradation for a few hours, maybe even a downgrade for the 5am. Just seems like a temporary fluctuation, though.
[img]http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/saves/animations/CODNEXLAB-GOES16-Low-Lvl%20WV-06:42Z-20170909_9458-9558-30-100.gif[/ig]

that is not dry air.. its a normal process if it was dry air it would have also effected the convection to the north and west.

all of the sounding I have seen show nothing but incredible amounts of energy and if this were not being effected by land following the ERC we would quite likely be looking a deepening hurricane 185 would have been easy for IRMA had it not got so close to CUBA which is a good thing.

[hawaiigirl]

Been reading all of your comments for days now and I appreciate everyone's knowledge. I spoke with my best friend today who lives in Sarasota. She is not evacuating and will stay in her home with her 3 children and husband. She said her home is some wood and some concrete...She said it's too late to evacuate as she doesn't want to be stuck on the highway during the storm. She had flights booked for tomorrow but the airlines canceled it. What is your opinion? Is it too late to evacuate? Thank you

[Aric Dunn]

Been reading all of your comments for days now and I appreciate everyone's knowledge. I spoke with my best friend today who lives in Sarasota. She is not evacuating and will stay in her home with her 3 children and husband. She said her home is some wood and some concrete...She said it's too late to evacuate as she doesn't want to be stuck on the highway during the storm. She had flights booked for tomorrow but the airlines canceled it. What is your opinion? Is it too late to evacuate? Thank you

then go to a shelter ! no need to stay in a home that is part wood and maybe concrete( which is probably just confusion for stucko) I know that whole area well and most home are still from pre andrew and have never had a major hurricane. tampa and the entire area around there is the most vulnerable metro plex in this country and a direct hit from this hurricane as the models are showing will be nothing short of a disastrous.

[Aric Dunn]

so this happened earlier.. where did the NOAA plane that was just in route go ? it should already be there.

[beachbum123]

Been reading all of your comments for days now and I appreciate everyone's knowledge. I spoke with my best friend today who lives in Sarasota. She is not evacuating and will stay in her home with her 3 children and husband. She said her home is some wood and some concrete...She said it's too late to evacuate as she doesn't want to be stuck on the highway during the storm. She had flights booked for tomorrow but the airlines canceled it. What is your opinion? Is it too late to evacuate? Thank you

That is not a call any of us can make. It's always best to make preparations ahead of time. I would personally feel horriable if I suggested someone wait it out and they were injured just as I would feel horriable if I suggested some on evacuate and they and up stranded on the road during this. It is up to your friend to choose what is best for her family all we can do is hope for the best. Sorry I couldn't help more.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090707
AF307 2611A IRMA HDOB 11 20170909
065730 2640N 08318W 4099 07427 0418 -138 -174 014007 008 024 000 00
065800 2638N 08315W 4101 07426 0418 -138 -177 014006 008 024 000 00
065830 2637N 08313W 4094 07437 0418 -138 -177 009005 006 025 000 00
065900 2635N 08311W 4101 07424 0416 -137 -177 345004 006 026 000 00
065930 2633N 08309W 4100 07424 0415 -135 -178 348004 005 025 000 03
070000 2631N 08307W 4098 07430 0417 -135 -182 001004 005 025 000 00
070030 2630N 08304W 4101 07421 0416 -135 -194 021004 005 025 000 00
070100 2628N 08302W 4098 07430 0417 -135 -199 015003 005 025 000 00
070130 2626N 08300W 4099 07426 0417 -135 -200 029004 005 025 000 03
070200 2625N 08258W 4099 07430 0419 -134 -200 026005 006 025 000 00
070230 2623N 08256W 4099 07427 0417 -134 -204 037005 005 025 000 00
070300 2621N 08254W 4097 07431 0417 -134 -210 029005 006 025 000 00
070330 2620N 08251W 4100 07425 0416 -135 -216 041005 006 025 000 03
070400 2618N 08249W 4098 07428 0417 -135 -213 054006 006 025 000 00
070430 2617N 08247W 4099 07425 0416 -135 -216 052005 006 025 000 03
070500 2615N 08245W 4099 07426 0415 -135 -204 043004 005 026 000 00
070530 2613N 08243W 4097 07428 0415 -133 -207 040004 004 026 000 03
070600 2612N 08241W 4100 07424 0415 -130 -211 032004 004 025 000 00
070630 2610N 08238W 4099 07426 0417 -130 -210 040004 005 025 000 03
070700 2608N 08236W 4099 07428 0418 -130 -194 056007 008 025 000 03
$$
;

[Shell Mound]

Well, sitting here in St. Petersburg, I am likely to experience the inner core of a bona fide major hurricane for the first time. Back in 2005 Wilma produced peak winds of about sixty knots (seventy mph) in Boca Raton, with gusts to about eighty-five knots (one hundred mph). Now I am looking at gusts up to 110 knots (125 mph) and sustained winds pushing the upper limits of Category-1 status. I am in evacuation Zone D. Assuming the system were to track along and parallel the coast from Naples to St. Petersburg, similar to what the European model depicts as of 00:00 UTC, what would the storm surge be in St. Petersburg?

[Airboy]

Looking at Miami longrange radar it's looks it's moving NW, but hard hard to tell yet because the eye it's just starting to move in to range of the radar

[TheStormExpert]

:roll:

 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/906339796003573761

Why the eye roll for the truth? Every motion west as long as it's greater than south for the next day or so brings it closer to Florida.

Not sure why those winds are forecasted to be stronger farther away from the center? It's been a long day at work so just ignore my ignorance.

[birdwomn]

This advise is spot on, IMO. It may be too late to get stuck on the highway, but do your best to get into a strong building away from the storm surge. The trip up US 19 to Tallahassee that normally takes around 4-5 hours took some friends 11.5 hours Friday. Many gas stations are still out of gas as well. They are replenishing as best they can, but it will not happen fast enough to get everyone out.

I have lived in the same home in Tampa Bay for 30+ years and have always known if "the big one" came I would need to be out far before anyone told me to leave, based on my location, neighborhood and the quality of the construction. Our first stop for Irma is Tallahassee and it looks like it may be where we stay put as traffic routes are bumper to bumper even at 3am.

Get your final provisions, get to the safest place you can, and hang in there! This is not Harvey - it is Irma, both horrific, but very different storms.

[joey]

:roll:

 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/906339796003573761

Why the eye roll for the truth? Every motion west as long as it's greater than south for the next day or so brings it closer to Florida.

Not sure why those winds are forecasted to be stronger farther away from the center? It's been a long day at work so just ignore my ignorance.

that cant be the recent forecast for se fl its going to be way lower as its going to far west for now

[Aric Dunn]

Why the eye roll for the truth? Every motion west as long as it's greater than south for the next day or so brings it closer to Florida.

Not sure why those winds are forecasted to be stronger farther away from the center? It's been a long day at work so just ignore my ignorance.

that cant be the recent forecast for se fl its going to be way lower as its going to far west for now

we dont know that yet..

all it takes a little wobble and downtown miami is the eastern eyewall.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I'm wondering just how much damage Cuba could do to Irma before it gets away from it. If you guys remember Ike from 2008 it never fully recovered after passing through Cuba on its way to Texas. It's possible Irma doesn't fully recover either.

I believe what was particularly damaging to Ike is that it traveled almost the entire length of Cuba, right down the middle, for about two days--Irma will very likely remain away from the mountainous area.

I remember Ike's traverse of Cuba as well. In case anyone forgot, this is what the "weakened" Ike did to the barrier islands in Texas. This was estimated at 12 feet of surge and Cat 2.

Only 12? I thought Ike had storm surges of 20+ feet.

(Not quite about Irma but to to be honest I am too tired after Harvey to have much to say about Irma. I guess it almost feels like "my city got hit now it's you guys' turn?"...I don't know but my knowledge of Florida is slim to none so my posts will be completely useless.)

Good luck to you all.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090717
AF307 2611A IRMA HDOB 12 20170909
070730 2607N 08234W 4097 07431 0417 -130 -192 045008 008 025 000 00
070800 2605N 08232W 4100 07426 0418 -130 -190 045008 009 025 000 03
070830 2603N 08230W 4099 07427 0418 -130 -188 049009 009 024 000 00
070900 2602N 08228W 4095 07434 0418 -130 -191 038009 009 024 000 03
070930 2600N 08225W 4102 07422 0418 -125 -192 031009 009 024 000 00
071000 2558N 08223W 4098 07430 0418 -125 -196 031009 009 024 000 00
071030 2557N 08221W 4100 07426 0417 -125 -198 033010 011 024 000 00
071100 2555N 08219W 4099 07426 0417 -125 -197 033012 012 024 000 03
071130 2553N 08217W 4098 07429 0416 -125 -198 031012 012 024 000 03
071200 2552N 08215W 4098 07427 0416 -122 -205 029012 013 025 000 00
071230 2550N 08212W 4101 07422 0415 -121 -211 028012 013 024 000 00
071300 2548N 08210W 4099 07425 0414 -120 -208 025012 012 025 000 00
071330 2546N 08208W 4097 07428 0414 -120 -208 023012 012 025 000 03
071400 2545N 08206W 4097 07427 0413 -120 -212 018012 012 025 000 00
071430 2543N 08204W 4100 07421 0413 -120 -212 015013 013 025 000 03
071500 2541N 08202W 4099 07424 0414 -121 -214 015013 014 025 000 00
071530 2540N 08159W 4098 07426 0414 -124 -210 011015 016 025 000 03
071600 2538N 08157W 4101 07421 0413 -130 -195 021015 016 025 000 00
071630 2536N 08155W 4098 07424 0412 -134 -205 026014 015 025 000 00
071700 2535N 08153W 4098 07423 0411 -130 -313 025015 016 025 000 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

I believe what was particularly damaging to Ike is that it traveled almost the entire length of Cuba, right down the middle, for about two days--Irma will very likely remain away from the mountainous area.

I remember Ike's traverse of Cuba as well. In case anyone forgot, this is what the "weakened" Ike did to the barrier islands in Texas. This was estimated at 12 feet of surge and Cat 2.

Only 12? I thought Ike had storm surges of 20+ feet.

I dont know what everyone else is thinking when they see that picture.. but everytime I see it .. I always wonder what the heck that house was made out of .....

[Shell Mound]

This advise is spot on, IMO. It may be too late to get stuck on the highway, but do your best to get into a strong building away from the storm surge. The trip up US 19 to Tallahassee that normally takes around 4-5 hours took some friends 11.5 hours Friday. Many gas stations are still out of gas as well. They are replenishing as best they can, but it will not happen fast enough to get everyone out.

I have lived in the same home in Tampa Bay for 30+ years and have always known if "the big one" came I would need to be out far before anyone told me to leave, based on my location, neighborhood and the quality of the construction. Our first stop for Irma is Tallahassee and it looks like it may be where we stay put as traffic routes are bumper to bumper even at 3am.

Get your final provisions, get to the safest place you can, and hang in there! This is not Harvey - it is Irma, both horrific, but very different storms.

The thing is, I am well inland from the immediate shoreline, and the peak surge would need to be twenty-six feet to reach me. However, I am in an apartment complex that lacks shutters, though the walls feel and seem sturdy. I am at a loss as to what to do, given that there is no place to attach shutters, and regulations in this setting are likely in place (though I'm unsure). I am a simple person who likes to live simply, so I try not to make preparations too complicated, but in this case the track shifted farther west and on shorter notice than I anticipated. Yes, I knew I was in the cone and had prepared accordingly for the hurricane season, but the evolving situation with this storm has been difficult. Now I am trying to determine my best course of action to protect myself...