ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

What should my Dad and half-sis expect in Wachee Weeki? That's in Hernando County.

This is not official, the Euro shows the eye going over Hernando County, with wind gusts 100-110 mph.

[johngaltfla]

Not sure if anybody mentioned but this is what the Euro is forecasting in wind gusts for the west coast of FL.

Naples: 160+ mph
Ft Myers: 150+ mph
Port Charlotte: 150+ mph
Sarasota: 120-130 mph (maybe a little higher on the eastern side of the County)
Tampa/St Pete: 100-120 mph
Lakeland area: 120-130 mph (eastern side of the eyewall)

Hopefully this will make some people evacuate to their nearest evacuation center if they feel unsafe in their homes or live by a surge prone body of water.

I hope you're ready. You're in the tornadic NE quadrant...

[johngaltfla]

What should my Dad and half-sis expect in Wachee Weeki? That's in Hernando County.

If the track verifies tonight, wind gusts 100 mph+ and a nasty storm surge. That area floods easily.

[NDG]

I'm glad the Cuban Gov't let the recon go into their airspace.

[NDG]

What should my Dad and half-sis expect in Wachee Weeki? That's in Hernando County.

If the track verifies tonight, wind gusts 100 mph+ and a nasty storm surge. That area floods easily.

I left the surge, indeed it could be nasty on that part of the Nature Coast as Irma lifts north and winds switch onshore.

[Airboy]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 8:56Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 26
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 8:38:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°29'N 78°47'W (22.4833N 78.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 94 statute miles (152 km) to the NW (323°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,518m (8,261ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NNW (337°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 69° at 112kts (From the ENE at ~ 128.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (338°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 935mb (27.61 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 112kts (~ 128.9mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (338°) from the flight level center at 8:32:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 210° at 10kts (From the SSW at 12mph

[txrok]

It's been going more west than north ....
since Day 1
the northern coords have gone down a tad
and the western coords seem to be going up a tad.

nice nnw jump there just now could the turn come early than expected

Not sure where you are getting that idea.

Seems West to me.

[AdamFirst]

155 MPH at the 5 AM advisory.

[johngaltfla]

155 MPH at the 5 AM advisory.

Moving at 285 degrees 12 mph. That could be the start of the turn.

[ApproximateKnowledge]

155 MPH at the 5 AM advisory.

Seems a really odd choice given the huge collapse in satellite presentation and the much lower recon findings.

[NDG]

A lot of resorts over the western Cays where Irma made landfall, hopefully the tourists were evacuated in time.

These ones is on Cayo Coco.

[wxmann_91]

155 MPH at the 5 AM advisory.

Seems a really odd choice given the huge collapse in satellite presentation and the much lower recon findings.

Kinda tough given that might convey a false sense of security for Floridians. Recon data could show a Cat 2 and they'd probably keep low-end Cat 4 status.

[ApproximateKnowledge]

155 MPH at the 5 AM advisory.

Seems a really odd choice given the huge collapse in satellite presentation and the much lower recon findings.

Kinda tough given that might convey a false sense of security for Floridians. Recon data could show a Cat 2 and they'd probably keep low-end Cat 4 status.

I suppose. But it looks like the core is going now, eye is collapsing on IR. Even with the ridiculous Florida straits bathwater it's hard to see how she rebuilds in time. She's basically half a storm right now, the entire west side is just gone.

[westcoastnative]

deleted

[AdamFirst]

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

The eye of Irma has been moving over the islands along the north
coast of Cuba, and satellite imagery along with preliminary
data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates
that the hurricane has weakened. The initial intensity is reduced
to 135 kt, and this may be generous.

The initial motion is now 285/10. Irma is moving along the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, which is about to
weaken due to a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the
southeastern United States. The track guidance is in good
agreement that Irma should continue west-northwestward for the next
12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest that would
take the center parallel to the west coast of the Florida
peninsula. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn
northwestward and eventually stall as it interacts with the
aforementioned trough. The track guidance has changed only
slightly since the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast track
follows the previous forecast in calling for Irma to move along the
coast of Cuba, then over the Lower Florida Keys, and then over and
near the Florida West coast. It should be noted that because of the
hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida, it is
extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move
onshore.

There is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the
warm waters of the Florida Straits. However, the large-scale
models forecast significant westerly shear developing at about
24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before
then. The first part of the intensity forecast thus calls for
little change in strength through 36 h, and Irma is still expected
to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and
the west coast of Florida. After that time, movement over land and
strong shear should cause steady weakening, with Irma eventually
decaying to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

[Langinbang187]

Cuba has put a rather large beating on the storm as expected. Not really sure why anyone would've expected otherwise. It's going to take hours for Irma to recover from this, by the time she starts to recover she should be making landfall in FL imo. I think she'll make landfall as a 3.

[Alyono]

155 MPH at the 5 AM advisory.

Seems a really odd choice given the huge collapse in satellite presentation and the much lower recon findings.

have not flown the NE quad yet

[d3v123]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

[johngaltfla]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

NO. You should be seriously finalizing your preps. I have a few windows to do today then I'm ready other than filling my bathtub in the morning.

[Airboy]

It's really a queastion on how much north it's gone move the coming hours. If it's hugs the Cuba coast or even move more inland Irma could break down a lot more. At the same time, if it's going more west than north it's should mean it have more time over water in the Gulf.