ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[znel52]

If this is a Cat5 .. that is two cat 5s east of the islands this season and 3 total ever...

I could see Jose getting upgraded to 5 in post season analysis as well.

[Gustywind]

Touch and go in the islands. Large convective complex wrapped around the eye and angular momentum pulled it N. Same complex will pull the Eye west over the next few hours. Stepping WNW...not a straight line. One more might make it miss to the North of Dominica...i pray so

But north of Dominica... it's Guadeloupe We hope that Maria will move away !

[CrazyC83]

If this is a Cat5 .. that is two cat 5s east of the islands this season and 3 total ever...

I could see Jose getting upgraded to 5 in post season analysis as well.

Most expect that as well. Consider that in 2005, only one storm was a major hurricane east of 65°W, and it only reached 100 kt.

[Ryxn]

If Maria hits Dominica as a Cat 5, it will make 2017 only the second year in history to feature MORE THAN ONE Category 5 hurricane landfalls (the other being Irma on Cuba). If she hits Puerto Rico as a Cat 5 as well, she'd put 2017 in first place for most Category 5 landfalls. CRAZY.

Don't think its a matter of if at this point.

Was thinking of the slight possibility it misses by going just over Dominica, but looking at satellite, that's very unlikely at the moment (Even if it did, it'd likely hit the island to the north).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If Maria hits Dominica as a Cat 5, it will make 2017 only the second year in history (the other being 2007) to feature MORE THAN ONE Category 5 hurricane landfalls (the other being Irma on Cuba). If she hits Puerto Rico as a Cat 5 as well, she'd put 2017 in first place for most Category 5 landfalls. CRAZY. (Also, I'm new here... first post )

Andrew in 1992 made 2 cat 5 landfalls

Irma made multiple Cat 5 landfalls, IIRC: Barbuda, St. Maarten, Ginger Islands and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, and then finally Cuba.

[1900hurricane]

If this is a Cat5 .. that is two cat 5s east of the islands this season and 3 total ever...

I could see Jose getting upgraded to 5 in post season analysis as well.

Most expect that as well. Consider that in 2005, only one storm was a major hurricane east of 65°W, and it only reached 100 kt.

It had a familiar name too.

(Also, Emily '05 became a major at 64.9ºW.)

[supercane4867]

"The dreaded pinhole eye"

[ronyan]

Looks cat 5 to me.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I am thinking that this may well doing a David re-run, though stronger. I am thinking that ridge will built enough for Maria to move into Dominican Republic. I am hoping that this will avoid Puerto Rico anyways.

[1900hurricane]

Here is the GOES-16 ADT. It's been having trouble pinpointing the eye at times, but it caught it on the latest frame. Raw T was 7.3. Final and Adjusted Ts are hamstrung by constraints.

GOES-16 ADT

[cjrciadt]

Speechless again! I dont even wanna guess intensity.

[CrazyC83]

They are issuing hourly position estimates based on French radars. No increase in intensity yet as they wait for Recon. That will be done in about 90 minutes.

[JBCycloneStan]

It would be really unfortunate if recon missed observing pressure and winds before landfall of Maria. It seems were are witnessing a historic RI and Dominicans deserve to know what is imminent.

[CrazyC83]

If I were to guess what Recon will find: 920mb / 150 kt.

[ronyan]

Landfall for Dominica should be around 9 PM CDT so recon should have enough time.

[johngaltfla]

"The dreaded pinhole eye"

That is a damned impressive picture. Unfortunately.

[Ken711]

No, whatever water Jose up welled has been replaced by now.

So then we are potentially looking at a 3rd major hurricane landfall in the CONUS this season, not good.

Potentially, depends on how much of her core goes over PR or the DR

Doesn't appear from the latest track that it will affect DR passing to the north of it.

[Ryxn]

If Maria hits Dominica as a Cat 5, it will make 2017 only the second year in history (the other being 2007) to feature MORE THAN ONE Category 5 hurricane landfalls (the other being Irma on Cuba). If she hits Puerto Rico as a Cat 5 as well, she'd put 2017 in first place for most Category 5 landfalls. CRAZY. (Also, I'm new here... first post )

Andrew in 1992 made 2 cat 5 landfalls

Irma made multiple Cat 5 landfalls, IIRC: Barbuda, St. Maarten, Ginger Islands and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, and then finally Cuba.

Thanks! It's funny, I knew about the other island landfalls, and was initially thinking purely the number of separate Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall(s) at Cat 5 intensity (so soon to be 2 in 2017's case) but then got ahead of myself talking about Maria possibly making a Cat 5 PR landfall so I switched to talking about number of Cat 5 landfalls. Didn't notice that drift haha.

Also, what's the record for fastest intensification from Category 1 to 5 or shortest time to have a 100 mph wind increase? Was it Wilma? Could Maria beat the record?

[Gustywind]

Landfall for Dominica should be around 9 PM CDT so recon should have enough time.

Waouw, how do you calculate that? And for Guadeloupe? Any idea?

[DTMEDIC]

It would be really unfortunate if recon missed observing pressure and winds before landfall of Maria. It seems were are witnessing a historic RI and Dominicans deserve to know what is imminent.

I don't know if they need to know what's imminent. They should have been prepared for a major hurricane, and they are probably already scared to death after seeing the destruction by Irma...so for me, knowing the awful reality to come when I can't do anything about it, would only make me insane while I wait!