ATL: MARIA - Models

[Alyono]

Looks like even less ridging on the 18Z GFS at 72 hours than 12Z. It is hard to discount the GFS and ECMWF as far as how they are intensifying Jose no matter what Jose might look like right now.

stop the modelology, please. If a solution is not physical, it is OK to discount it

[tolakram]

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like even less ridging on the 18Z GFS at 72 hours than 12Z. It is hard to discount the GFS and ECMWF as far as how they are intensifying Jose no matter what Jose might look like right now.

Nope, not when what I see is nothing compared to what both models are showing.

[ChucktownStormer]

So South Florida is not out of the woods with Maria?

Los Angles California is out of the woods, but nobody should be talking about the woods right now.

[tolakram]

[sma10]

Looks like the 18z east shift undid the 12z west shift

[tolakram]

[johngaltfla]

I feel better here in South Florida that the NHC has Maria staying well east of us and that they are still seeing the weakness in the high to the north as of the 5pm update.

Please don't let your guard down. Mother Nature seems to have it in for us this season.

[floridasun78]

so fl can breather that maria not issue but north Carolina could be issue north of their what some of you saying?

Sorry this is OT, but just wanted to say that we're glad to see you're back! Had a lot of people wondering how you made out with Irma.

few mobile home lost car port and i have little damage side of trailer wind try take part off it very strong i seen long time even stronger r and wilma ty asking

[tolakram]

[LCfromFL]

Honestly, at this point I think beyond day 5 we can't predict anything. Everything is on the table.

I have been stressing this point since yesterday!!

My home flooded from Hurricane Irma - had 14" of Thomas Creek inside. We lost power for 5 days, landline for 6 days, xfinity internet for 6 and cell service for 5 days. Our flood insurance adjuster has still not been assigned. I really don't want to even think about Maria.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like a big time slow down on the GFS east of the Bahamas.

[jlauderdal]

so fl can breather that maria not issue but north Carolina could be issue north of their what some of you saying?

Sorry this is OT, but just wanted to say that we're glad to see you're back! Had a lot of people wondering how you made out with Irma.

few mobile home lost car port and i have little damage side of trailer wind try take part off it very strong i seen long time even stronger r and wilma ty asking

It was rough in dade, happy to hear you did ok

[RL3AO]

Maybe Jose will intensify tomorrow. The models agree on lower shear and it will be near the Gulf Stream. I'm just skeptical that after a couple days of clouds, wind, and waves from the slow-moving Jose that the models are over-estimating the actual SSTs.

Since this is a Maria thread, I'll mention that we'll see what the runs look like tomorrow afternoon. Jose will be showing continued signs of death or be on its way to a miraculous comeback. There's a good chance Maria misses the east coast, but I think the chance is lower than the models suggest.

[Blown Away]

Amazing how Jose just sits up in generally the same location for days at such a high latitude...

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see it with Jose. You can see lots of dry air entrainment on WV imagery and on visible lots of stable low level stratus over the waters off MA and ME. Throw in SST's below 75F dropping to the 60's and I expect to start seeing a low level swirl at least by Wed. I think the models are overdoing the intensity of Jose much like they did with Irma as she went up the spine of FL.

[ronjon]

If the GFS is to be believed, and it shouldn't 8 days out, Maria sits east of the Florida peninsula crawling with weak steering.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If the GFS is to be believed, and it shouldn't 8 days out, Maria sits east of the Florida peninsula crawling with weak steering.

9 days to get to 30N...man its gonna be a long week.

[AutoPenalti]

I just don't see it with Jose. You can see lots of dry air entrainment on WV imagery and on visible lots of stable low level stratus over the waters off MA and ME. Throw in SST's below 75F dropping to the 60's and I expect to start seeing a low level swirl at least by Wed. I think the models are overdoing the intensity of Jose much like they did with Irma as she went up the spine of FL.

It did fire up a hot tower though within the last couple of hours, so maybe it is intensifying.

[tolakram]