ATL: IRMA - Models

[Patrick99]

I wonder is these west shifts with the models are done. I remember with Matthew they kept shifting west and almost got to the Palm Beach County coastline only in the end Matthew passed a comfortable distance east of Palm Beach. The storm basically went a little east of the models at 48-72 hours out. Every storm is different but just wondering if we will see something similar here too. SE Florida still seems the target zone for the worst weather from Irma.

Gator, we will be lucky to avoid anything but a direct hit in se fla

I am still hopeful. Our area is such a tiny area....and for a storm to just zero in on that one little area just seems improbable. All it takes is a jog one way or another, or a slightly more or less prolonged west movement. It's just hard for me to believe Cat 5 into a fairly small Miami is set in stone.

[tolakram]

Is the Euro running at 1:45 again tonight?

Every day, 1:45am and pm Next GFS run starts at 11:30pm. All EDT.

[marciacubed]

Is the Euro running at 1:45 again tonight?

Every day, 1:45am and pm Next GFS run starts at 11:30pm. All EDT.

Thanks I was hoping for earlier

[Steve]

I wonder is these west shifts with the models are done. I remember with Matthew they kept shifting west and almost got to the Palm Beach County coastline only in the end Matthew passed a comfortable distance east of Palm Beach. The storm basically went a little east of the models at 48-72 hours out. Every storm is different but just wondering if we will see something similar here too. SE Florida still seems the target zone for the worst weather from Irma.

Gator, we will be lucky to avoid anything but a direct hit in se fla

No doubt about it j. And you're probably going to get it. You're one of the posters I've know for about 20 years if you can believe that. We got old tracking this stuff through many summers and falls when there were probably 100 weather geeks and enthusiasts on the "world wide web". I hope you do alright up there in the FTL. It is my personal opinion that somewhere between the SFWMD consensus and JMA will be the track. I think the UKMET is probably too far south and ECMWF a little too far west. NAVGEM is way too far west. I miss this stuff more than I get it right, but so far so good with Irma. Expect it to possibly hook west tomorrow night and intensify to its deepest pressure yet and then come up. There is still some concern the center gets tangled up with Cuba which I think distorts what the UKMET is doing and also what allows the EC to hook so far out toward Key West before landfalling again in the Everglades. I would think the EC comes east and joins the consensus or decides to landfall just a hair west of the consensus (but east of its 12Z run) like the JMA. But I do like the track up the eastern side of the state keeping Irma's center weighted East of a center-line through most of the passage through Florida. I think the model consensus got that right after the ECMWF and JMA both said this wasn't coming back out in the water. It might be close, and NAM and HMON I think still do bring it farther east. But they seem like outliers. NAM 00Z should be running now. Best to you and your family in this catastrophe.

[tolakram]

I keep remembering that after the Matthew west shift the models kept predicting landfall, including the euro, and it never happened. If model biases in this area are consistent I expect it to stay right of the Euro track but not by much. The NHC only showed a landfall once, 2 days before it was expected, and went east the next forecast. I'm talking just 20 miles or so, a very small adjustment.

[bamajammer4eva]

Today's model shifts showing how more of the FL Peninsula may see Irma's bad side. TVCN/Consensus(heavy grey) shifted a little further west after 5 pm NHC's advisory shift (in red) so we will see if they shift more at next advisory. No Euro on these

[gatorcane]

yes is agree this looks bad for SE Florida. What I am saying is that could the west shifts be done and now we see the Euro shift east some back to directly over SE Florida similar to the GFS? Or will some west shifts continue and put the SW Florida coastline in the eye wall? I think we will see the former rather than the latter.

[tolakram]

From earlier, UKM still insisting on a Cuba landfall.

[RL3AO]

I keep remembering that after the Matthew west shift the models kept predicting landfall, including the euro, and it never happened. If model biases in this area are consistent I expect it to stay right of the Euro track but not by much. The NHC only showed a landfall once, 2 days before it was expected, and went east the next forecast. I'm talking just 20 miles or so, a very small adjustment.

We're about 72 hours out from landfall now. Here was Matthew 72 hours before its closest approach.



Here was Matthew at its closest approach.



You're right that after this they did have the eye just over the coast for an advisory. But I've been seeing quite a few people on Twitter talk about how bad the Matthew forecast was and how Irma could be a repeat. Matthew's forecast was not bad.

[jlauderdal]

I wonder is these west shifts with the models are done. I remember with Matthew they kept shifting west and almost got to the Palm Beach County coastline only in the end Matthew passed a comfortable distance east of Palm Beach. The storm basically went a little east of the models at 48-72 hours out. Every storm is different but just wondering if we will see something similar here too. SE Florida still seems the target zone for the worst weather from Irma.

Gator, we will be lucky to avoid anything but a direct hit in se fla

No doubt about it j. And you're probably going to get it. You're one of the posters I've know for about 20 years if you can believe that. We got old tracking this stuff through many summers and falls when there were probably 100 weather geeks and enthusiasts on the "world wide web". I hope you do alright up there in the FTL. It is my personal opinion that somewhere between the SFWMD consensus and JMA will be the track. I think the UKMET is probably too far south and ECMWF a little too far west. NAVGEM is way too far west. I miss this stuff more than I get it right, but so far so good with Irma. Expect it to possibly hook west tomorrow night and intensify to its deepest pressure yet and then come up. There is still some concern the center gets tangled up with Cuba which I think distorts what the UKMET is doing and also what allows the EC to hook so far out toward Key West before landfalling again in the Everglades. I would think the EC comes east and joins the consensus or decides to landfall just a hair west of the consensus (but east of its 12Z run) like the JMA. But I do like the track up the eastern side of the state keeping Irma's center weighted East of a center-line through most of the passage through Florida. I think the model consensus got that right after the ECMWF and JMA both said this wasn't coming back out in the water. It might be close, and NAM and HMON I think still do bring it farther east. But they seem like outliers. NAM 00Z should be running now. Best to you and your family in this catastrophe.

Thanks steve, we have been at it a long and i always said our day would come in sofla...i will consider myself fortunate if the eye doesnt go.over my house...im riding it out solo, wife and daughter heading out of town to safety...will get as much imagery as i can for you guys...this is an extremely rare event...if i have structural probmems this will be at least 100 billion dollar event..single story 1966 concrete block, fully shuttered, garage door rated to 140..its going to be a real test

[GTStorm]

Today's model shifts showing how more of the FL Peninsula may see Irma's bad side. TVCN/Consensus(heavy grey) shifted a little further west after 5 pm NHC's advisory shift (in red) so we will see if they shift more at next advisory. No Euro on these

Thanks...a great post, shows clearly the trend westward. Interesting to see how much further it might go.

Feeling better about coastal Georgia for sure...not so much for central Florida / SW Georgia.

[caneman]

Gator, we will be lucky to avoid anything but a direct hit in se fla

No doubt about it j. And you're probably going to get it. You're one of the posters I've know for about 20 years if you can believe that. We got old tracking this stuff through many summers and falls when there were probably 100 weather geeks and enthusiasts on the "world wide web". I hope you do alright up there in the FTL. It is my personal opinion that somewhere between the SFWMD consensus and JMA will be the track. I think the UKMET is probably too far south and ECMWF a little too far west. NAVGEM is way too far west. I miss this stuff more than I get it right, but so far so good with Irma. Expect it to possibly hook west tomorrow night and intensify to its deepest pressure yet and then come up. There is still some concern the center gets tangled up with Cuba which I think distorts what the UKMET is doing and also what allows the EC to hook so far out toward Key West before landfalling again in the Everglades. I would think the EC comes east and joins the consensus or decides to landfall just a hair west of the consensus (but east of its 12Z run) like the JMA. But I do like the track up the eastern side of the state keeping Irma's center weighted East of a center-line through most of the passage through Florida. I think the model consensus got that right after the ECMWF and JMA both said this wasn't coming back out in the water. It might be close, and NAM and HMON I think still do bring it farther east. But they seem like outliers. NAM 00Z should be running now. Best to you and your family in this catastrophe.

Thanks steve, we have been at it a long and i always said our day would come in sofla...i will consider myself fortunate if the eye doesnt go.over my house...im riding it out solo, wife and daughter heading out of town to safety...will get as much imagery as i can for you guys...this is an extremely rare event...if i have structural probmems this will be at least 100 billion dollar event..single story 1966 concrete block, fully shuttered, garage door rated to 140..its going to be a real test

I remember both of you guys. I've been at it for about 18 years. Back to the Central Florida Hurricane Center days. Sanibel has been around for awhile too, Frank P too? Watching and waiting around Clearwater Beach. I think up the spine would be a very bad scenario. More people without power. Many older homes and mobile homes in the center of the state. Have a bad feeling. Lost power from both Frances and Jeanne for days. Expecting same and probably worse

[gatorcane]

Interestingly the NAM has shifted east so far. Run out to 27 hours:

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like the NAM runs tonight are coming in east. Why are they doing that? What is the set up to make them do this now?

[gatorcane]

Looks like the NAM runs tonight are coming in east. Why are they doing that? What is the set up to make them do this now?

Looks like a weaker ridge.

[RL3AO]

Interestingly the NAM

This is where I stopped reading.


In all seriousness. Don't use the NAM for anything other than entertainment. Don't try to assign trends to it. Don't try to wonder if it's the start of a shift.

[txwatcher91]

Looks like the NAM runs tonight are coming in east. Why are they doing that? What is the set up to make them do this now?

Because the trough in the NE is slower to move out and the ridging is weaker too.

[gatorcane]

Interestingly the NAM

This is where I stopped reading.


In all seriousness. Don't use the NAM for anything other than entertainment. Don't try to assign trends to it. Don't try to wonder if it's the start of a shift.

Maybe not the start of a shift so much as the west shifts have stopped. The NAM was also shifting west today with the rest of the models.

[txwatcher91]

Here is the trend GIF for the synoptic setup. While it’s not good for forecasting TC track, it IS good at the 500mb longwave pattern inside 48 hours and is picking up on something for such a big change. Notice the trough in the NE is much slower and less progressive.

[Hammy]

Interestingly the NAM

This is where I stopped reading.


In all seriousness. Don't use the NAM for anything other than entertainment. Don't try to assign trends to it. Don't try to wonder if it's the start of a shift.

Maybe not the start of a shift so much as the west shifts have stopped. The NAM was also shifting west today with the rest of the models.

NAM seems to go back and fourth every run or two, it did the same with Harvey as well.