ATL: IRMA - Models

[tgenius]

I'll go with landfall in the Everglades again. And sitting just east of Fort Meyers by 72 hrs.

That is a little better for Miami Patrick, obviously no solution is good right now, but could keep the eyewall away from Miami a bit no?

[Alyono]

EC has the eyewall MISSING the big cities

[Hurricane Andrew]

Euro 72H:

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090800/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_watl_4.png[/img]

A little west of the 12Z run, but still no good news for us in Miami. Going to bed hopefully someone can take over.

Thanks.

Think this would be good news for miami,would avoid the eyewall

Wrong; Miami would be in the RFQ of a high-end 3 or low-end 4...

[Langinbang187]

Well hard to bet against the UKMET & Euro here as they've handled Irma the best. Wouldn't be shocked to see this make landfall in Cuba at after all.

Would suck for Cuba but would definitely help keep Irma down some intensity wise for sure.

[USTropics]

A lot of interaction with most of the Cayo's on the northern coast of Cuba but it appears on the high-resolution ECMWF it stays just north of the mainland:

[stormhunter7]

Ouch... state gonna take a beating...

[tgenius]

EC has the eyewall MISSING the big cities

Alyono, how quick will you get the 3 hour maps to get a better idea of landfall?

[PaulR]

Stuck here in South Florida can't leave its s gridlock

It looks like Alligator Alley and I-75 are clear up to Wildwood. The slowdowns there should clear by the time you get there later tonight if you want to head out. Not sure whether you're going into GA or west into AL and how things would develop tomorrow morning but you have options.

Or you can ride it out here with us diehards that will be hanging on for dear life.

Just my humble opinion, but you might want to think twice about using the term "clear", when the situation is really in a state of flux. As for encouraging people to stay as a Cat 5 makes landfall, my best friends who have lived in Florida for decades are saying anyone who attempts to ride this one out is a fool.

We are slightly OT here, but, yeah... People should be referred to pics of damage in the path of Andrew's core as it plowed through S. FL. I have a good friend who was just North of the worst of it. In that path, it looked like a gigantic, strong F5 tornado had gone through. Or "God's lawnmower" as one person termed it. Everything but the very strongest buildings was just... obliterated, in some of the pics.

I know the building codes are much more stringent now, but, still...

[AtlanticWind]

Euro 72H:

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090800/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_watl_4.png[/img]

A little west of the 12Z run, but still no good news for us in Miami. Going to bed hopefully someone can take over.

Thanks.

Think this would be good news for miami,would avoid the eyewall

Wrong; Miami would be in the RFQ of a high-end 3 or low-end 4...

Not wrong still better than the eyewall!

[USTropics]

Landfall was at 923mb on the high-res ecmwf:

[Alyono]

EC has the eyewall MISSING the big cities

Alyono, how quick will you get the 3 hour maps to get a better idea of landfall?

it strikes around Marathon at 8 AM on Sunday in the EC

[AtlanticWind]

EC has the eyewall MISSING the big cities

Alyono, how quick will you get the 3 hour maps to get a better idea of landfall?

it strikes around Marathon at 8 AM on Sunday in the EC

Yeah looks like it goes right over the 7 mile bridge

[USTropics]

Had to wait for the last few images to render, but here is the entire loop for the 00z ECMWF run:

[Hammy]

Is this part of a continued west trend or are there going to be small left and right track wobbles as the time frame gets closer?

[Alyono]

looks to have changed little compared to the 18Z guidance. 0Z EC quite similar to the 12Z EC. Think we're zeroing in on the landfall zone now

[northjaxpro]

Well, there is the classic spine up the peninsula track here on the 0Z EURO.

[AtlanticWind]

:uarrow: Well, there is the classic spine up the state track here on the 0Z EURO.

All I can say from the Ft lauderdale area is go euro! Keep this out over the everglades.

[psyclone]

:uarrow: Well, there is the classic spine up the peninsula track here on the 0Z EURO.

A large storm spreading misery from shore to shore

[Alyono]

EC may be just a touch too far south in the short term. Not nearly as bad as the UKMET though

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Well, there is the classic spine up the peninsula track here on the 0Z EURO.

A large storm spreading misery from shore to shore

Psyclone, you are absolutely right. Because of the massive size of Irma, this spine up.the peninsula track would impact truly everyone!!

Don"t forget about tornadoes that will be so numerous across the state as Irma rides up the state in this run. A complete nightmare scenario.