ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[doomhaMwx]

Day/Night DNB Imagery VIIRS
08-31-2017 15:09

[Gustywind]

Hurricane Ira is surely in very good shape.

[SouthFLTropics]

Reminds me of Iris of 2001. It is just different compared to Andrew and charley which were also small cyclones but this when discussing the core is even smaller.

A few EWRCs will end up increasing the size by quite a bit. It's a classic occurrence with Cape Verde hurricanes.

I'm wondering if after one of those EWRC's if it will have one of those big annular looking eyes (Like Isabel)

I have a photo on my office wall of Isabel's eye when it had all of the other vortices rotating around in it and looked like a pentagram.

[weathaguyry]

Irma looks beautiful, and given the probable EWRC's that she will have before she touches any land, she may end up getting a nice, circular eye just like Isabel

[ScottNAtlanta]

A few EWRCs will end up increasing the size by quite a bit. It's a classic occurrence with Cape Verde hurricanes.

I'm wondering if after one of those EWRC's if it will have one of those big annular looking eyes (Like Isabel)

I have a photo on my office wall of Isabel's eye when it had all of the other vortices rotating around in it and looked like a pentagram.

Harvey's eye at landfall looked like that too

[Exalt]

I wanna say that the compact core brings into mind Gafilo or Fantala.

[Michele B]

The ULL to the NW is forecast to move west in tandem with Irma and have minimal effect.

Reminds me of a "pilot fish" and a shark

Or Matthew's "blob..."

[Evenstar]

'Ol Irma seems quite content just riding along that 28C Isotherm. I'd guess the young Gal will likely maintain present level of intensity until crossing between 45W-50W. Here's where the octane looks to increase a tad and i'd guess when we see her reach Cat. 4. That cut off low to its northwest looks to be filling and just getting squeezed out of the way. I dont think it'll continue to drop south ahead of Irma but likely soon make a small cyclonic loop and be forced back north and into the Westerlies. Beyond that feature, I'm just not seeing much/anything to inhibit further strengthening (other than land itself) for at least several days. Hmmmm, I'm beginning to question if my low pressure guess (919mb I think?) might not have been quite low enough?! Oh well, I'll just sit pat with my guess, and if I don't win the million dollars??? Hey, the tax implications would've just been a nightmare to deal with anyhow LOL. Feels really odd to watch such a strong system so far east, but one that has the potential to impact so many.

Is it just me, or do people on this site call hurricanes with female names "girl" or "gal" a lot more than they call hurricanes with male names "boy" or "guy"? Not saying you have to stop doing so...as long as you don't start saying "Irma engulfed miles of coastline in her moist mouth..." like they said about Carla

I think of hurricanes in much the same way I think of ships (on the sea, in the air and in space), in female pronouns. It doesn't feel natural to me to refer to them as male unless they are specifically given male names. I've always been of the opinion that when men use female pronouns for inanimate objects they are using them almost as terms of endearment.

Anyway, sorry, off topic. I just wanted to put the fellas at ease so they don't feel like they have to assiduously watch what they say. We're all grown ups here (theoretically).

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Looking at the latest IR sat lop=op, Irma is obvisouly a well organized system. But I thought based on how it looked when she was an invest, that she would be a looking much larger Geographitcal speaking than she is at this time.

[tiger_deF]

Looking at the latest IR sat lop=op, Irma is obvisouly a well organized system. But I thought based on how it looked when she was an invest, that she would be a looking much larger Geographitcal speaking than she is at this time.

She is supposed to grow much larger according to model guidance, however she is traveling over 27-26 degree waters which are cool enough that she can't push out those powerful bursts of convection that balloon the size of most systems. As you can see, her outflow is very large but the eyewall is not quite there yet.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Agreed the out flow at this time looks very good as well as the inflow. But at least at this point she has not been able to pul in a sold core of convection. No out at some point she will, and I am sure it will be an amazing Satellite pic for the ages.

[stormreader]

Day/Night DNB Imagery VIIRS
08-31-2017 15:09

Amazing. So far out to sea, and looks like that.

[psyclone]

it sure is an amazing system but it is small. expect an increase in size over time as it engages warmer waters and goes through eyewall replacement cycles. warmer water will probably help with outer banding features as well which, at the moment are rather skimpy.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

[psyclone]

what's interesting about the climo is while most storms in this region don't ultimately strike, those that do seem to be disproportionately monsters. it's got more of my attention than a storm typically does at that longitude. My WAG at this juncture says we're due for a Cape Fear to Raleigh to Tidewater special.

[tgenius]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

I am not so sure it ends up in SFL. Might end up in central or north Florida, especially if that ridge is not as strong as Euro is portraying but stronger than the GFS. Probably wrong but it's a guess at this point

[RL3AO]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

I think it'll be near or north of Puerto Rico in 7 days. After that, I don't know. The synoptic pattern has me a watching closely in North Carolina though.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Lol,

So if I understand your post, you are not comfortable making any estimate, not a guess but ur opinion as to where it ends up.

[Ken711]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

NC/VA border. Close to an Isabel track.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

'Ol Irma seems quite content just riding along that 28C Isotherm. I'd guess the young Gal will likely maintain present level of intensity until crossing between 45W-50W. Here's where the octane looks to increase a tad and i'd guess when we see her reach Cat. 4. That cut off low to its northwest looks to be filling and just getting squeezed out of the way. I dont think it'll continue to drop south ahead of Irma but likely soon make a small cyclonic loop and be forced back north and into the Westerlies. Beyond that feature, I'm just not seeing much/anything to inhibit further strengthening (other than land itself) for at least several days. Hmmmm, I'm beginning to question if my low pressure guess (919mb I think?) might not have been quite low enough?! Oh well, I'll just sit pat with my guess, and if I don't win the million dollars??? Hey, the tax implications would've just been a nightmare to deal with anyhow LOL. Feels really odd to watch such a strong system so far east, but one that has the potential to impact so many.

Is it just me, or do people on this site call hurricanes with female names "girl" or "gal" a lot more than they call hurricanes with male names "boy" or "guy"? Not saying you have to stop doing so...as long as you don't start saying "Irma engulfed miles of coastline in her moist mouth..." like they said about Carla

I think of hurricanes in much the same way I think of ships (on the sea, in the air and in space), in female pronouns. It doesn't feel natural to me to refer to them as male unless they are specifically given male names. I've always been of the opinion that when men use female pronouns for inanimate objects they are using them almost as terms of endearment.

Anyway, sorry, off topic. I just wanted to put the fellas at ease so they don't feel like they have to assiduously watch what they say. We're all grown ups here (theoretically).

Hopefully... (:3)