ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tireman4]

I should know this, but when is recon going in there...after it leaves the Yucatan, I presume?

The Gulfstream flight is scheduled for tonight I believe to help the models and then multiple recon flights are scheduled for tomorrow.

I thought I saw someone post last night that recon was scheduled for this afternoon?

n Wednesday morning the first mission in BOC but on Tuesday the Gulfstream jet will be up.

CODE: SELECT ALL
EMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z A. 23/1200Z
B NOAA9 0609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
C. 22/1730Z C. 23/0900Z
D. NA D. 20.0N 92.0W
E. NA E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1430Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. 6-HRLY FIXES ON HARVEY IF SYSTEM REGENERATES.

[SunnyThoughts]

I should know this, but when is recon going in there...after it leaves the Yucatan, I presume?

Gonzo flies today or tonight, 3 af missions planned for wed I believe.

[hohnywx]

I should know this, but when is recon going in there...after it leaves the Yucatan, I presume?

The Gulfstream flight is scheduled for tonight I believe to help the models and then multiple recon flights are scheduled for tomorrow.

I thought I saw someone post last night that recon was scheduled for this afternoon?

This is the plan as of noon yesterday:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211600
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 21 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z A. 23/1200Z
B NOAA9 0609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
C. 22/1730Z C. 23/0900Z
D. NA D. 20.0N 92.0W
E. NA E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1430Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. 6-HRLY FIXES ON HARVEY IF SYSTEM REGENERATES.
B. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES FOR SUSPECT AREA IF IT DEVELOPS.

$$
JWP

[RL3AO]

Are the models predicting a Saturday (8-26) landfall?

Seem to be more late Friday. If you consider ~60 hours (at most) lead time for watches, that would mean advisories starting early tomorrow. That would also depend on having a confident enough forecast too.

[Tireman4]

Got it. Thanks. That will alert all those who forgot...

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Are the models predicting a Saturday (8-26) landfall?

Seem to be more late Friday. If you consider ~60 hours (at most) lead time for watches, that would mean advisories starting early tomorrow. That would also depend on having a confident enough forecast too.

Thank you. Hopefully that confident forecast will come sooner rather than later.

[Portastorm]

It's been 9 years since a hurricane landfall in Texas. The last one was a certain storm from 2008...

And unless I'm forgetting something ... it's been seven years since a tropical system of any consequence impacted our state (Texas). That was Hermine in 2010. We have been extremely lucky lately. Our luck may be running out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow... been gone the last few days for the eclipse. The models took a dramatic turn for the worse with Harvey's remains.

[fwbbreeze]

With the bulk of the convection on the northern tip of the Yucatan....and we all know fledgling cyclone centers tend to move around. The upper Texas Coast and Louisiana need to pay close attention to this storm.

fwbbreeze
"From the Backwoods"

[1900hurricane]

Wow... been gone the last few days for the eclipse. The models took a dramatic turn for the worse with Harvey's remains.

Basically the same situation here. When I left, I really only had the system in the back of my mind, but these recent trends have been concerning. The rainfall looks like it could be especially bad, particularly if the system slows down considerably near the recurve point.

[MGC]

Yup, lots of convection in the GOM north of the Yucatan. Look for possible center reformation there. Western Gulf coast needs to pay attention. Got in late last night from Sparta Tenn. The eclipse was awesome.....MGC

[cycloneye]

12z Surface Analysis.

[PTrackerLA]

Well looks like even if the Euro/GFS show similar solutions on their 12z runs, the NHC will likely do nothing with ex-Harvey until tomorrow the way it looks now. This could be a really tough situation for getting the message out if landfall is going to be Friday.

[Alyono]

the evolution of this is dependent upon the large upper low over the NW Gulf. Models get this out of the way by tomorrow morning. However, it is showing no signs of moving at the moment. This is something to monitor closely as it could be the difference between another Cindy and a strong hurricane

[SoupBone]

the evolution of this is dependent upon the large upper low over the NW Gulf. Models get this out of the way by tomorrow morning. However, it is showing no signs of moving at the moment. This is something to monitor closely as it could be the difference between another Cindy and a strong hurricane

Interesting for sure. If it doesn't move then what? It scoots north and east around it? To me, it still looks to be moving west, albeit slowly (the ULL).

[ROCK]

the evolution of this is dependent upon the large upper low over the NW Gulf. Models get this out of the way by tomorrow morning. However, it is showing no signs of moving at the moment. This is something to monitor closely as it could be the difference between another Cindy and a strong hurricane

Interesting for sure. If it doesn't move then what? It scoots north and east around it? To me, it still looks to be moving west, albeit slowly (the ULL).

slows it down...more time over the 30C waters...could sling shot it around the ULL as it exit / weakens west into Texas before the high builds which shunts the whole thing east into LA...

[p1nheadlarry]

I should know this, but when is recon going in there...after it leaves the Yucatan, I presume?

Gonzo flies today or tonight, 3 af missions planned for wed I believe.

Not a lot of time. This is something I've heard being talked about the possibility of a 'sick' MDR. It's not going to crush every wave coming off of Africa, and we've had vigorous waves this season. That means the ones that do develop do so closer to populated areas with shorter warning. Not a warm feeling.

That being said seeing the models after the sampling of the nearby atmosphere couldn't happen soon enough. 3-5 day range has pretty darn good skill these days despite the bashing these models have been receiving lately.

[p1nheadlarry]

Wow... been gone the last few days for the eclipse. The models took a dramatic turn for the worse with Harvey's remains.

Basically the same situation here. When I left, I really only had the system in the back of my mind, but these recent trends have been concerning. The rainfall looks like it could be especially bad, particularly if the system slows down considerably near the recurve point.

The decrease in forward speed has been a trend along with a more northward track in the models. Combination of the ULL and the high as seen on the surface chart to the west of ex-Harvey? Though more than likely the ULL.

[Hurricaneman]

This could be sheared the next 24 hrs by the ULL to its north based on the shear maps and that could be good news on the intensity front but am not betting on that and the rain may be ridiculous totals, similar to Allison in 2001

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe the center is wrong, at least the one pointed out by the NHC. I believe the center is just north of the northwestern tip of the Yucatan. Just to point that out. If you watch visible loops you can see that everything seems to be pivoting around that area in the low levels. This is just my opinion of course, and could be wrong.