ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

I'm wondering if Nate lost its circulation over Honduras. I'm not seeing anything on satellite loops. Definitely NOT a TS now. Might not survive the shear it's moving right into.

If it was anyone but you saying that I'd laugh.

[latitude_20]

I'm wondering if Nate lost its circulation over Honduras. I'm not seeing anything on satellite loops. Definitely NOT a TS now. Might not survive the shear it's moving right into.

If it was anyone but you saying that I'd laugh.

I thought that region of shear was forecasted to relax a bit.

[SoupBone]

I'm wondering if Nate lost its circulation over Honduras. I'm not seeing anything on satellite loops. Definitely NOT a TS now. Might not survive the shear it's moving right into.

If it was anyone but you saying that I'd laugh.

I thought that region of shear was forecasted to relax a bit.

NDG referenced the GFS forecast and it showed tomorrow.

[LarryWx]

Nate actually got as far as 50 miles inland, meaning those runs that had him just skim the coast busted, and has been inland 11 hours, which is a good reason he doesn't look as "good". He is now only 25 miles inland and will be offshore by ~midnight.

[SoupBone]

Nate actually got as far as 50 miles inland, meaning those runs that had him just skim the coast busted, and has been inland 11 hours, which is a good reason he doesn't look as "good". He is now only 25 miles inland and will be offshore by ~midnight.

And he has 30-50kts of shear waiting for him. He has a very small window of light shear until it lessens.

[Alyono]

Nate actually got as far as 50 miles inland, meaning those runs that had him just skim the coast busted, and has been inland 11 hours, which is a good reason he doesn't look as "good". He is now only 25 miles inland and will be offshore by ~midnight.

And he has 30-50kts of shear waiting for him. He has a very small window of light shear until it lessens.

shear has rapidly decreased this evening

[SoupBone]

Nate actually got as far as 50 miles inland, meaning those runs that had him just skim the coast busted, and has been inland 11 hours, which is a good reason he doesn't look as "good". He is now only 25 miles inland and will be offshore by ~midnight.

And he has 30-50kts of shear waiting for him. He has a very small window of light shear until it lessens.

shear has rapidly decreased this evening

I respectfully disagree unless I'm linking the wrong map. I've been commenting on it for nearly 2 days and all it's done is shift a little. I know that it's supposed to lessen but so far it's remained pretty constant. Am I linking the wrong chart?

[Jag95]

There might be some faint signs of a circulation on satellite around the coast but if I didn't know there was a tropical storm in that area I'd never guess it just by looking at this. I agree, recon will be interesting.

[Alyono]

And he has 30-50kts of shear waiting for him. He has a very small window of light shear until it lessens.

shear has rapidly decreased this evening

I respectfully disagree unless I'm linking the wrong map. I've been commenting on it for nearly 2 days and all it's done is shift a little. I know that it's supposed to lessen but so far it's remained pretty constant. Am I linking the wrong chart?

you're looking at a static map. Look at the WV. Very clear that the UL is rapidly moving out of the way and the upper winds are becoming highly divergent

[SoupBone]

Is there a live shear chart out there? I know the one I linked is on a 3 hour step so maybe Alyono has access to things we don't (being a promet).

EDIT: Ha, I hit submit right after you posted Alyono.

[Big Easy Breeze]

I think it could easily pass over Baton Rouge, just as much as it could pass over New Orleans, looking at the models.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060158
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 19 20171006
015030 1852N 08541W 4098 07368 0358 -129 -165 147022 023 /// /// 03
015100 1850N 08542W 4099 07369 0359 -129 -166 151023 024 /// /// 03
015130 1847N 08542W 4099 07365 0359 -125 -166 158023 024 /// /// 03
015200 1845N 08543W 4099 07367 0359 -125 -166 159023 023 /// /// 03
015230 1843N 08544W 4098 07368 0357 -129 -167 156024 024 /// /// 03
015300 1840N 08544W 4099 07369 0357 -133 -167 156024 025 /// /// 03
015330 1838N 08545W 4099 07365 0357 -137 -167 156023 024 /// /// 03
015400 1836N 08545W 4099 07368 0357 -139 -167 154022 023 /// /// 03
015430 1834N 08546W 4099 07364 0358 -133 -166 156022 023 /// /// 03
015500 1831N 08547W 4100 07367 0358 -130 -166 158022 022 /// /// 03
015530 1829N 08547W 4099 07367 0357 -130 -166 161022 023 /// /// 03
015600 1827N 08548W 4099 07364 0356 -132 -165 163023 025 /// /// 03
015630 1825N 08548W 4099 07371 0357 -130 -163 165021 022 /// /// 03
015700 1822N 08549W 4105 07360 0360 -130 -163 160021 022 /// /// 03
015730 1820N 08549W 4157 07263 0353 -127 -162 157019 022 /// /// 03
015800 1818N 08550W 4322 06960 0333 -110 -156 144017 019 /// /// 03
015830 1816N 08550W 4487 06676 0309 -094 -151 129019 020 /// /// 03
015900 1814N 08551W 4635 06416 0286 -080 -142 127022 024 /// /// 03
015930 1812N 08552W 4799 06147 0275 -064 -133 117023 025 /// /// 03
020000 1810N 08552W 4968 05876 0258 -055 -121 093016 024 /// /// 03
$$
;

Plane descending.

[Bayousaint]

gotabyte wrote:
Just joined site today.

I live just to the East of New Orleans(Slidell) and I'm having to tell people here what is going on. Most don't seem to pay attention to local news anymore. They think I'm joking when mentioning Hurricane hitting here. I keep getting told "That thing is going to Florida".

Picked up generator gas earlier today and supplies and noticed stores had normal traffic.

We may be without power for a few days from trees falling but with generator and fuel we should be good.


I was just listening to WWL radio, I can't believe how lightly they are taking Nate.

I stopped listening to WWL radio a couple of weeks back. It's hard to explain, but they've gone completely stupid lately.

I agree.

My family in lower Lafourche is receiving little information from the Nola news venues regarding Nate. I'm actually the one relaying current data and possibilitie scenarios. Luckily, they have hurricane preparations down to a fine science!

Just my two cents regarding WWL, etc. Even if this is not a major storm, I really wish they would cover the possibilities of flooding and probable areas if Nate continues its current track. For those who do not know, Nola experienced some unexpected flooding this summer (even in the French Quarter-- which basically never floods, not even for Katrina) due to one strong thunderstorm. Some pumps are inoperable; catch basins are blocked.

A huge Thank You for graciously sharing your knowledge and expertise!!! This forum is the most detailed and useful source I've come across, hands down!

[SunnyThoughts]

[Hammy]

Circulation definitely intact based on radar and appears that it's over the extreme NE portion of Honduras.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060209
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 20 20171006
020030 1808N 08553W 5091 05684 0246 -045 -108 095022 025 /// /// 03
020100 1806N 08553W 5209 05508 0239 -035 -098 086022 025 /// /// 03
020130 1804N 08554W 5413 05202 0218 -022 -089 076016 020 /// /// 03
020200 1802N 08554W 5603 04925 0055 -016 -078 039017 019 /// /// 03
020230 1800N 08555W 5775 04681 0074 -012 -069 077021 023 /// /// 03
020300 1758N 08555W 5915 04473 0070 -004 -061 067022 025 /// /// 03
020330 1756N 08556W 6095 04254 0101 +006 -042 076024 026 /// /// 03
020400 1754N 08556W 6268 04032 0100 +020 -026 083023 024 /// /// 03
020430 1752N 08557W 6480 03758 0097 +035 -006 073021 023 /// /// 03
020500 1750N 08557W 6679 03509 0108 +040 +010 054014 020 /// /// 03
020530 1749N 08557W 6849 03304 0096 +058 +025 057012 014 /// /// 03
020600 1747N 08558W 7079 03017 0082 +080 +038 046014 016 /// /// 03
020630 1745N 08559W 7345 02710 0077 +098 +056 034019 020 /// /// 03
020700 1743N 08600W 7536 02490 0069 +115 +066 037018 020 /// /// 03
020730 1742N 08601W 7772 02239 0071 +132 +078 044021 022 /// /// 03
020800 1740N 08602W 7981 02014 0073 +145 +094 046021 022 /// /// 03
020830 1739N 08603W 8209 01774 0071 +156 +112 047023 023 /// /// 03
020900 1737N 08604W 8408 01566 0066 +171 +119 043023 023 /// /// 03
020930 1736N 08605W 8429 01542 0061 +177 +117 044026 027 /// /// 03
021000 1734N 08606W 8430 01541 0064 +171 +129 044023 027 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Javlin]

NAM's running Steve looking about 45kts @39hrs 26.3N 90.1W trying to close off with winds all around the circulation.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=114

edit:80knts was MSLP&850mb winds.

[SunnyThoughts]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060219
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 21 20171006
021030 1732N 08607W 8429 01540 0065 +169 +129 043025 025 /// /// 03
021100 1731N 08607W 8432 01537 0068 +162 +138 043025 027 /// /// 03
021130 1729N 08607W 8434 01533 0064 +166 +142 045022 024 /// /// 03
021200 1727N 08608W 8430 01537 0065 +166 +131 041022 023 /// /// 03
021230 1725N 08608W 8409 01560 0065 +164 +149 040022 024 /// /// 03
021300 1723N 08608W 8438 01531 0065 +164 +142 048021 022 /// /// 03
021330 1722N 08609W 8425 01543 0065 +162 +138 048022 023 /// /// 03
021400 1720N 08609W 8430 01537 0067 +160 +137 043023 023 022 001 00
021430 1718N 08609W 8432 01537 0069 +163 +132 043023 024 022 001 03
021500 1717N 08609W 8437 01532 0066 +165 +130 045022 022 020 001 00
021530 1716N 08607W 8429 01539 0066 +164 +135 049021 021 022 001 00
021600 1714N 08606W 8430 01537 0064 +164 +140 053023 024 021 001 00
021630 1713N 08605W 8429 01540 0064 +166 +136 052023 024 021 003 00
021700 1712N 08604W 8429 01537 0063 +166 +127 052023 023 025 000 00
021730 1711N 08602W 8429 01540 0066 +165 +128 052022 023 024 001 00
021800 1710N 08601W 8429 01540 0063 +165 +128 052022 022 023 002 00
021830 1709N 08600W 8430 01533 0062 +167 +130 054023 023 023 001 00
021900 1708N 08559W 8430 01538 0061 +170 +126 052024 024 023 001 00
021930 1707N 08557W 8430 01535 0061 +170 +127 049024 024 024 001 00
022000 1706N 08556W 8430 01535 0061 +167 +126 048025 025 025 001 00
$$
;

[SunnyThoughts]