ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dixiebreeze]

She appears to be almost OFF the coast of Citrus County N. of Tampa. Possible she could travel into the Panhandle? Reminds me somewhat of Elena who spun for three days just offshore of Cedar Key.

[WeatherGuesser]

Been away for a while and skipped some page of back and forth guessing.

Is it getting stronger or not?

[norva]

Been away for a while and skipped some page of back and forth guessing.

Is it getting stronger or not?

Looks like it

[tolakram]

Been away for a while and skipped some page of back and forth guessing.

Is it getting stronger or not?

It looks better, recon is on the way.

[Aric Dunn]

could be some mid level shear hitting it..

there is a interesting feature on radar. a north to south convergence line from key west to cube that is flat and moving with a differential moition compared to everything else.

[PandaCitrus]

It's rapidly organizing itself. Every 10 minute image on the satellite looks better and better.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... map=latlon

[Ziltoid]

These people are amazing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45p ... Novobilsky

edit - they've just left, there were a bunch of people there taking photos with their backs towards the huge waves. You can see them if you slide back the time a bit.

[GCANE]

Core are 1242Z
Nothing wrong - ready for another round.

[Michele B]

Ok mental break is over.. what's shaken bacon's ?

Anything Irma touches!

[WeatherGuesser]

With these track changes, I'm wondering about the people that left the south and moved northward that may now be more in harm's way than if they'd stayed south.

[Buck]

When was a hurricane's eye last visible on Key West radar? https://www.wunderground.com/weather-ra ... -west/byx/

Not gonna be surprised when Irma roars back close to or at Cat 5 intensity in the next 24 hours. Those Florida straits are like rocket fuel sometimes.

[otowntiger]

So this is what the 12z GFS forecasts approximately on wind gusts for Florida tomorrow:

Keys, 155 mph
Homestead 102 mph
Miami, 96-100 mph
Ft Lauderdale, 90 mph
West Palm Beach, 90 mph
Naples, 130 mph
Marco Island, 140 mph
Ft Myers, 125 mph
Sarasota, 100 mph
Tampa/St Pete, 90 mph (surprisingly low)
Orlando, 105 mph (strong right quadrant)
Daytona, 90+ mph
Ocala, 100 mph
Gainesville, 84 mph
Jacksonville, 90-100 mph (highest along the beach)

Some of these wind gusts might be a bit conservative if it really restrengthens before tomorrow noon. IMO.

NWS has Hudson, Fl (about 25 miles north of Tampa) gusting to 130 on 9/11 at 0400

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=hi&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w10u=0&w12u=1&w13u=1&AheadHour=1&Submit=Submit&FcstType=digital&textField1=28.3577&textField2=-82.6995&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=

Yes that is probably more likely, like I said those wind gusts forecasts by the GFS might be too conservative in some areas, but hopefully not

I'm thinking some of these could be on the high side, esp ones like Orlando and Jax. These are based on the GFS which obviously Is showing a track east of the official forecast track. 30-40 miles east would make a big difference. Also the GFS is going bunkers with the RI up to landfall which is unrealistic in my opinion. I agree that Tampa is underdone though.

[ROCK]

She's about to take off again. All models show
deepening from here on out. I would think a sub 925 is possible.JMO

[Kat5]

South of the forecast point, panhandle storm if you ask me.

[Jevo]

Gah... 12z Euro initialized inland and SW of the storms current location. Not sure what that means for the long term.

[shawn6304]

South of the forecast point, panhandle storm if you ask me.

the forcast point has her still over Cuba, she is NE of forcast point

[KyleEverett]

Gah... 12z Euro initialized inland and SW of the storms current location. Not sure what that means for the long term.

That its too late to be utilizing the Euro and other global models for Florida and that we're in watching radar trends.

[otowntiger]

When was a hurricane's eye last visible on Key West radar? https://www.wunderground.com/weather-ra ... -west/byx/

Not gonna be surprised when Irma roars back close to or at Cat 5 intensity in the next 24 hours. Those Florida straits are like rocket fuel sometimes.

Don't know- I guess that's possible but the conditions have to be near perfect other than water temp. Aric mentioned evidence of some possible shear ahead.

[Bocadude85]

could be some mid level shear hitting it..

there is a interesting feature on radar. a north to south convergence line from key west to cube that is flat and moving with a differential moition compared to everything else.

I noticed this also..not sure what it is.

[AdamFirst]

Okeechobee County EOC was struck by lightning in a passing band, their 911 response center is currently offline