ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Javlin
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#981 Postby Javlin » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:30 pm

The Nam shifted 1.2'W @48hrs on this run before the N movement and about 80knt as opposed to 55knts earlier.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#982 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:33 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 060228
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 22 20171006
022030 1705N 08555W 8429 01535 0061 +165 +130 046024 025 025 001 00
022100 1704N 08554W 8429 01534 0061 +165 +129 043024 024 024 001 00
022130 1704N 08554W 8429 01534 0061 +166 +127 043024 024 024 001 00
022200 1701N 08551W 8430 01533 0063 +165 +128 042025 025 024 001 00
022230 1700N 08550W 8430 01535 0063 +161 +129 041024 025 023 002 00
022300 1659N 08549W 8430 01533 0062 +164 +131 041024 024 024 002 00
022330 1658N 08547W 8429 01536 0062 +165 +131 041025 026 024 003 00
022400 1657N 08546W 8432 01530 0062 +161 +139 039026 027 026 002 00
022430 1656N 08545W 8433 01530 0062 +160 +144 042025 025 024 003 00
022500 1655N 08544W 8430 01531 0060 +163 +145 044024 025 024 001 00
022530 1653N 08542W 8429 01532 0061 +161 +148 042023 024 022 002 00
022600 1652N 08541W 8432 01529 0060 +165 +141 044025 026 023 000 00
022630 1651N 08540W 8429 01535 0059 +163 +136 043026 027 024 001 00
022700 1650N 08538W 8430 01530 0059 +165 +136 043025 026 023 003 00
022730 1649N 08537W 8429 01533 0058 +164 +135 043027 028 025 004 00
022800 1648N 08536W 8433 01530 0057 +164 +132 045028 028 025 003 00
022830 1647N 08535W 8428 01532 0055 +167 +133 044027 028 025 002 00
022900 1646N 08533W 8430 01529 0054 +169 +134 049027 029 025 002 00
022930 1645N 08532W 8429 01531 0053 +170 +134 047026 026 024 001 00
023000 1644N 08531W 8432 01528 0053 +166 +138 047025 027 027 002 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#983 Postby Big Easy Breeze » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:37 pm

Javlin wrote:The Nam shifted 1.2'W @48hrs on this run before the N movement and about 80knt as opposed to 55knts earlier.


80knts is a nice blow. Remains to be seen if intensity forecasts tick up/down, but ATM, it appears the intensity forecast is on the uptick.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#984 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:41 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_19.png
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#985 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:43 pm

URNT15 KNHC 060239
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 23 20171006
023030 1642N 08530W 8443 01515 0054 +164 +143 041024 026 026 001 00
023100 1641N 08528W 8429 01529 0053 +168 +131 044024 025 029 001 00
023130 1640N 08527W 8430 01529 0051 +170 +131 044025 027 030 001 00
023200 1639N 08526W 8428 01530 0050 +171 +135 041025 028 030 001 00
023230 1638N 08525W 8428 01530 0048 +174 +124 046026 027 026 001 00
023300 1637N 08523W 8430 01526 0047 +175 +122 046029 030 026 001 00
023330 1636N 08522W 8430 01527 0047 +173 +124 043029 030 026 001 00
023400 1635N 08521W 8431 01526 0049 +170 +126 043028 028 026 002 00
023430 1634N 08520W 8429 01527 0048 +167 +128 041028 029 026 002 00
023500 1632N 08518W 8429 01526 0048 +166 +144 050028 029 025 001 00
023530 1631N 08517W 8429 01524 0046 +168 +142 049030 030 027 001 00
023600 1630N 08516W 8426 01528 0048 +164 +145 047029 030 026 001 30
023630 1629N 08515W 8431 01521 0047 +165 +143 046029 030 027 001 00
023700 1628N 08513W 8429 01523 0046 +165 +145 040029 030 028 001 00
023730 1627N 08512W 8430 01520 0046 +164 +141 040031 031 028 001 00
023800 1626N 08511W 8429 01520 0045 +163 +147 042031 032 032 000 00
023830 1625N 08510W 8430 01521 0044 +161 +152 042031 033 033 001 00
023900 1624N 08508W 8430 01518 0042 +161 +155 041026 029 032 003 00
023930 1622N 08507W 8429 01521 0041 +165 +153 036023 026 031 002 00
024000 1621N 08506W 8430 01517 0041 +163 +152 037022 022 031 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#986 Postby bella_may » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:43 pm

Looks like the center is offshore now. About 15 miles north of Honduras. I'd post the pic if I knew how lol
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#987 Postby Javlin » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:44 pm

Big Easy Breeze wrote:
Javlin wrote:The Nam shifted 1.2'W @48hrs on this run before the N movement and about 80knt as opposed to 55knts earlier.


80knts is a nice blow. Remains to be seen if intensity forecasts tick up/down, but ATM, it appears the intensity forecast is on the uptick.


Would be but I had not notice I was on the MSLP&850mb Wind so will be less at the surface but I am looking at the NAM more for track than intensity but it did show an increase over the 18z run.The EURO,HWRF and HMON I will look at for intensity.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#988 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:52 pm

URNT15 KNHC 060248
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 24 20171006
024030 1620N 08505W 8430 01515 0038 +164 +149 036021 022 031 002 00
024100 1619N 08503W 8429 01518 0038 +165 +148 036021 022 031 003 00
024130 1618N 08502W 8431 01512 0036 +162 +148 034020 021 031 005 00
024200 1617N 08501W 8429 01514 0035 +165 +146 025020 021 033 004 00
024230 1616N 08459W 8435 01511 0042 +154 +152 031022 024 038 018 05
024300 1615N 08458W 8429 01513 0048 +151 +151 030023 024 038 018 00
024330 1614N 08456W 8430 01510 0047 +160 +160 031020 023 037 064 03
024400 1614N 08455W 8417 01520 0049 +163 +163 029024 028 050 061 00
024430 1613N 08453W 8429 01511 0049 +165 //// 060029 035 050 037 05
024500 1612N 08452W 8433 01508 0043 +167 //// 066030 030 033 009 01
024530 1611N 08451W 8442 01499 0043 +166 +166 068030 032 029 011 00
024600 1610N 08450W 8425 01515 //// +161 //// 065027 028 028 003 05
024630 1609N 08449W 8429 01511 0038 +158 //// 067030 031 026 004 05
024700 1607N 08448W 8427 01510 0034 +162 //// 072030 032 027 004 01
024730 1606N 08447W 8432 01507 0032 +162 //// 079026 030 027 005 05
024800 1604N 08447W 8426 01509 //// +165 //// 076026 026 029 003 01
024830 1603N 08446W 8432 01502 //// +165 //// 071026 027 028 003 01
024900 1601N 08446W 8429 01504 0020 +168 //// 072023 026 028 002 01
024930 1600N 08445W 8430 01502 //// +170 //// 069025 027 028 002 01
025000 1558N 08445W 8425 01506 0019 +169 //// 067028 029 030 007 01
$$
;

50 kt SFMR in squalls, but that may be affected by shoaling.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#989 Postby Javlin » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:57 pm

bella_may wrote:Looks like the center is offshore now. About 15 miles north of Honduras. I'd post the pic if I knew how lol

My issue to and been here for years just do links.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#990 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:59 pm

Hurricane and storm surge watches issued for SE LA.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#991 Postby pcolaman » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:01 pm

Tropical storm watch issued for the Pensacola area.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#992 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:02 pm

URNT15 KNHC 060258
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 25 20171006
025030 1557N 08444W 8424 01505 0019 +169 //// 066029 030 030 007 05
025100 1556N 08443W 8429 01499 //// +161 //// 073028 030 029 014 05
025130 1556N 08442W 8433 01495 0010 +174 +165 075027 028 030 003 00
025200 1556N 08440W 8429 01498 0009 +175 +162 082028 028 031 002 00
025230 1557N 08439W 8430 01496 0008 +178 +164 081028 028 030 002 00
025300 1557N 08437W 8429 01497 0008 +176 +163 082028 028 030 002 00
025330 1557N 08436W 8430 01495 0008 +175 +162 084029 029 029 002 00
025400 1558N 08434W 8430 01497 0008 +175 +162 086029 029 030 001 00
025430 1558N 08433W 8429 01497 0008 +175 +161 089029 029 031 001 00
025500 1559N 08432W 8432 01497 0011 +175 +158 094028 029 031 000 00
025530 1559N 08430W 8429 01498 0013 +175 +157 097029 029 031 000 00
025600 1600N 08429W 8429 01500 0014 +171 +160 101028 029 029 001 03
025630 1600N 08427W 8425 01504 0014 +173 +161 107028 029 030 001 00
025700 1600N 08426W 8434 01496 0014 +171 +160 111028 029 030 001 00
025730 1600N 08424W 8430 01501 0015 +170 +158 115029 030 030 001 00
025800 1600N 08423W 8428 01503 0015 +170 +160 117030 030 030 001 00
025830 1600N 08421W 8431 01500 0015 +170 +159 124031 031 030 001 00
025900 1600N 08420W 8430 01500 0015 +170 +158 127031 031 029 001 00
025930 1600N 08418W 8428 01504 0018 +170 +159 130031 031 029 001 00
030000 1600N 08417W 8429 01502 0019 +169 +161 136032 032 029 002 00
$$

Center may still be over land, at least at the 850 level.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#993 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:03 pm

center at 15.8, so they did not fly through the center. Data valid. Pressure likely 999-1000 ish
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#994 Postby Jag95 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:09 pm

The hurricane watch is from Morgan City to MS/AL line.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#995 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:11 pm

They think the storm will arrive Saturday night now. Man that thing is gonna be flyin low through the gulf.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#996 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:11 pm

URNT15 KNHC 060309
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 26 20171006
030030 1600N 08415W 8427 01505 0019 +166 +163 143033 033 029 001 00
030100 1600N 08414W 8430 01502 0020 +165 +163 146032 033 027 002 00
030130 1600N 08412W 8429 01502 0020 +165 +164 151031 032 028 001 01
030200 1600N 08411W 8429 01503 //// +165 //// 154031 032 028 001 01
030230 1600N 08409W 8432 01504 0022 +165 +163 154030 031 028 001 01
030300 1600N 08408W 8428 01507 0025 +165 +164 153029 030 029 001 00
030330 1600N 08406W 8429 01506 0025 +165 +163 156030 031 029 002 00
030400 1600N 08404W 8429 01507 0026 +165 +162 159032 032 029 001 00
030430 1600N 08403W 8429 01508 0026 +165 +162 163033 033 030 000 00
030500 1600N 08401W 8429 01508 0027 +165 +163 165032 033 029 001 00
030530 1600N 08359W 8431 01508 0028 +165 +163 166031 032 029 001 00
030600 1600N 08358W 8430 01505 0030 +165 +163 170032 032 029 002 00
030630 1600N 08356W 8431 01509 0030 +165 +163 172034 035 030 001 00
030700 1600N 08356W 8431 01509 0031 +165 +162 174035 037 028 002 00
030730 1600N 08353W 8429 01510 0031 +165 +160 177037 037 028 002 00
030800 1600N 08351W 8429 01511 0031 +165 +159 176036 037 030 001 00
030830 1600N 08349W 8430 01509 0030 +168 +160 178038 038 029 001 00
030900 1600N 08348W 8431 01510 0030 +170 +155 179038 039 028 001 00
030930 1600N 08346W 8428 01516 0029 +173 +152 181038 039 029 001 00
031000 1600N 08344W 8430 01512 0028 +175 +138 181038 038 028 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#997 Postby SoupBone » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:13 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:They think the storm will arrive Saturday night now. Man that thing is gonna be flyin low through the gulf.


Yeah I saw between midnight and 2am Sunday. That's insane speed. Anyone calculate the exact speed estimate for that to happen?
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#998 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:14 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#999 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:21 pm

URNT15 KNHC 060319
AF305 0316A NATE HDOB 27 20171006
031030 1600N 08343W 8430 01513 0031 +173 +135 184037 038 029 001 00
031100 1600N 08341W 8428 01517 0031 +174 +135 184035 036 028 001 00
031130 1600N 08339W 8430 01514 0037 +165 +155 184036 037 028 001 03
031200 1600N 08338W 8428 01517 0036 +165 +158 188038 038 030 001 00
031230 1600N 08336W 8432 01513 0038 +165 +160 189038 039 030 002 00
031300 1600N 08334W 8430 01514 0038 +164 +160 190038 039 031 001 00
031330 1600N 08332W 8435 01510 0038 +166 +158 189037 041 031 002 00
031400 1600N 08331W 8426 01521 0038 +168 +156 187037 038 030 001 00
031430 1600N 08329W 8429 01520 0036 +173 +153 187036 038 030 001 00
031500 1600N 08327W 8432 01516 0037 +171 +154 190037 038 030 001 00
031530 1600N 08325W 8430 01520 0038 +172 +153 188036 036 032 000 00
031600 1600N 08324W 8432 01518 0038 +173 +149 187035 036 033 000 00
031630 1600N 08322W 8429 01522 0040 +171 +146 185039 039 032 000 00
031700 1600N 08320W 8431 01521 0043 +170 +147 186040 041 032 001 00
031730 1600N 08319W 8428 01526 0044 +170 +150 186043 044 033 001 00
031800 1600N 08317W 8433 01522 0041 +171 +150 185042 045 033 002 00
031830 1600N 08315W 8429 01525 0041 +177 +144 187043 045 034 000 00
031900 1600N 08313W 8428 01526 0043 +173 +147 185043 044 034 001 00
031930 1600N 08312W 8433 01522 0044 +175 +143 187045 046 034 001 00
032000 1600N 08310W 8432 01526 0046 +174 +143 186048 049 033 001 00
$$
;

49 kt FL, 34 kt SFMR
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Re: ATL: NATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1000 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:31 pm

Alyono wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Alyono wrote:
shear has rapidly decreased this evening


I respectfully disagree unless I'm linking the wrong map. I've been commenting on it for nearly 2 days and all it's done is shift a little. I know that it's supposed to lessen but so far it's remained pretty constant. Am I linking the wrong chart?

Image


you're looking at a static map. Look at the WV. Very clear that the UL is rapidly moving out of the way and the upper winds are becoming highly divergent

Huh. Here goes the RI or even EI if ULL keeps doing that.
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