ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2017081512, , BEST, 0, 135N, 294W, 20, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021, SPAWNINVEST, al782017 to al922017,

Thread at Talking Tropics that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118975&p=2600269#p2600269

[gatorcane]

Needs to be watched closely looking at the setup ahead as it could into the area get north of islands and near Bahamas where conditions could be much more favorable.

[SFLcane]

Needs to be watched closely looking at the setup ahead as it could into the area get north of islands and near Bahamas where conditions could be much more favorable.

For now ECMWF recurves it near Bermuda

[gatorcane]

Needs to be watched closely looking at the setup ahead as it could into the area get north of islands and near Bahamas where conditions could be much more favorable.

For now ECMWF recurves it near Bermuda

The ECMWF takes this just north of the islands and into the southern Bahamas. The wave behind this one is the one that ECMWF recurves (i.e. disturbance #3 0/20%)

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Needs to be watched closely looking at the setup ahead as it could into the area get north of islands and near Bahamas where conditions could be much more favorable.

For now ECMWF recurves it near Bermuda

The ECMWF takes this just north of the islands and into the southern Bahamas. The wave behind this one is the one that ECMWF recurves (i.e. disturbance #3 0/20%)

You are correct also the spin to it looks nice let's see what this can do

[SFLcane]

Hmm yea gatorcane my bad but as TW could change lots of time to watch

[TheStormExpert]

Needs to be watched closely looking at the setup ahead as it could into the area get north of islands and near Bahamas where conditions could be much more favorable.

Yeah like we saw with 99L/Gert, 92L needs to be closely monitored once north of the Eastern Caribbean and near the Bahamas region.

[Bocadude85]

Needs to be watched closely looking at the setup ahead as it could into the area get north of islands and near Bahamas where conditions could be much more favorable.

Yeah like we saw with 99L/Gert, 92L needs to be closely monitored once north of the Eastern Caribbean and near the Bahamas region.

And lets not forget that the models dropped development of 99L for several days before starting to show development again.

[SFLcane]

One thing is for sure if the shear zone TUTT near 60w doesn't budge it might be another struggle. It seems as models don't see the sinking air and shear.

[cycloneye]

First mission for Thursday afternoon (If Necesary)

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 15 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 17/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 55.0W

[ronjon]

92L looking very healthy on VIS SAT - may already be close to depression status.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

[weathaguyry]

92L looking very healthy on VIS SAT - may already be close to depression status.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

We shall see, it really does look good, but I'm not sure that the NHC will be too quick with it since there is no immediate threat to land. Maybe a nice increase in the 2PM TWO, maybe 30/40? Just a 100% amateur guess.

[northjaxpro]

Well, so after watching how good this vort has looked all morning, invest tag on it now! 2 invests, as we have discussed all along all week.

This invest will be watched extremely close, especially as it gets to the vicinity of the Bahamas.

What a week this is turning out to be with monitoring these invests and going to South Carolina to view the total eclipse.

[gatorcane]

Starting to show signs of organization - if it can build enough convection and vorticity it could survive the PV streamer NE of the Lesser Antilles (i.e. the shear zone) and find more favorable conditions north of the islands and in the vicinity of the Bahamas (what the CMC is showing).

Latest floater here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[GCANE]

Starting to show signs of organization - if it can build enough convection and vorticity it could survive the PV streamer NE of the Lesser Antilles and find more favorable conditions north of the islands and in the vicinity of the Bahamas (what the CMC is showing).

Latest floater here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Latest GFS is showing 92L directly interacting with the PV streamer and sweeping it west.
Looks like it'll open up for the wave behind it (93L) and really get it spinning.
That one could be a headliner.

[gatorcane]

Starting to show signs of organization - if it can build enough convection and vorticity it could survive the PV streamer NE of the Lesser Antilles and find more favorable conditions north of the islands and in the vicinity of the Bahamas (what the CMC is showing).

Latest floater here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Latest GFS is showing 92L directly interacting with the PV streamer and sweeping it west.
Looks like it'll open up for the wave behind it (93L) and really get it spinning.
That one could be a headliner.

I am very suspicious of the GFS as far as how it is handling interactions with ULLs/PV streamers. Gert is a good example - showed nothing because it thought it wouldn't organize enough to survive the ULL/shear. But clearly that did not happen. Similar thing could end up happening here and this invest develops more than the GFS thinks. We'll see what the Euro does with it later.

I am watching this invest very closely.

[stormreader]

92L looking very healthy on VIS SAT - may already be close to depression status.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

We shall see, it really does look good, but I'm not sure that the NHC will be too quick with it since there is no immediate threat to land. Maybe a nice increase in the 2PM TWO, maybe 30/40? Just a 100% amateur guess.

I think those numbers may be on the low side. Its looking really good right now. Starting to develop deeper convection close to its mid level center.

[tropicwatch]

ASCAT from this morning.

[northjaxpro]

That ASCAT shows that 92L is as close to being closed off as it can be. This may be a TD already.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

:uarrow: That ASCAT shows that 92L is as close to being closed off as it can be. This may be a TD already.

I wouldn't say that yet dude it has some way to go to develop a good LLC and most of the spin appears to be at mid levels for now