ATL: TEN - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

Model Archive GIFs
GFS 12Z Aug 14: http://i.imgur.com/KiiAjyP.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 14: http://i.imgur.com/BlHrqpe.gif
GFS 00Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/2dyZ6xQ.gif
GFS 06Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/2aBdxih.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/yN6br6o.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/P2PkfbA.gif

ECMWF 12Z Aug 14: http://i.imgur.com/klw1Uq9.gif
ECMWF 00Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/2d4eiAv.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 15: http://i.imgur.com/VCTK5fO.gif

[gatorcane]

UKMET,GFS,ECMWF all send this north of islands through or near the Bahamas:

UKMET: https://s17.postimg.org/cmex6j7nj/ukm2. ... .gentr.png
GFS: https://s18.postimg.org/vnhlvqb0p/gfs_z ... atl_29.png
ECMWF: https://s11.postimg.org/n6uggaj37/ecmwf ... watl_8.png

[SFLcane]

Yep models developing " for now '" lol.. but in all most drive up near bermuda suggesting a recurve.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS sends 92L almost to Florida then turns NNW into @S Carolina, but GFS does it's classic stall a system out for 2-3 days in/around Bahamas. If 92L develops it seems like a real CONUS player...

[gatorcane]

Nice picture Blown_Away. NAVGEM like this one too and probably would be stronger if it didn't move over Hispaniola and Cuba:

[caneseddy]

06z GFS sends 92L almost to Florida then turns NNW into @S Carolina, but GFS does it's classic stall a system out for 2-3 days in/around Bahamas. If 92L develops it seems like a real CONUS player...

Someone I believe posted yesterday that one of the Gfs ensembles had a hit in Miami around that time frame and then a second hit 3 days after..the above graphic with both storms suggests a possibility of that scenario

Also if memory serves me correct Hammy posted several days ago that the Euro had a South Florida hit around that same time frame (correct me Hammy if I'm wrong)

Now watch the next runs back off considerably after I said this

[Steve]

06z GFS sends 92L almost to Florida then turns NNW into @S Carolina, but GFS does it's classic stall a system out for 2-3 days in/around Bahamas. If 92L develops it seems like a real CONUS player...

Someone I believe posted yesterday that one of the Gfs ensembles had a hit in Miami around that time frame and then a second hit 3 days after..the above graphic with both storms suggests a possibility of that scenario

Also if memory serves me correct Hammy posted several days ago that the Euro had a South Florida hit around that same time frame (correct me Hammy if I'm wrong)

Now watch the next runs back off considerably after I said this

It was the 12z Sunday European that had it there. Click 240 hours which would have been 10 days from 8am EDT (a week from tomorrow). That, I think, was 91L though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=181

[Blown Away]

92L seems to be the TW to watch with regards to a CONUS threat. 91L seems to be a low rider and future 93L may be a NE Caribbean problem and recurve away from CONUS... All long range and likely drastic changes will occur...

[cycloneye]

[otowntiger]

92L seems to be the TW to watch with regards to a CONUS threat. 91L seems to be a low rider and future 93L may be a NE Caribbean problem and recurve away from CONUS... All long range and likely drastic changes will occur...

Agreed about drastic changes...but hypothetically that GFS run would be 'exciting' for us here in central Fl. Those kinds of tracks are obviously very rare, but possible I suppose. If the system was substantially strong and moving at a pretty good clip that angle would bring some pretty stout winds well inland (perhaps to Orlando) as there is a lot less land to traverse from that side, more than what Charley had when he barreled thru here and created some havoc. But I digress. Central Florida direct hits like this are actually surprisingly rare.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

The GFS has 2 tropical depressions forming out of both invest in 18 to 30 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like 92L may be paving the way through the SAL and the TUTT for the future wave coming off of Africa. GFS loses it above the Greater Antilles but the potential storm following it looks healthy.

[tropicwatch]

I believe this is for 92L.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 15.6N 36.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2017 96 15.8N 38.5W 1008 36
0000UTC 20.08.2017 108 17.2N 42.5W 1007 38
1200UTC 20.08.2017 120 18.1N 46.1W 1005 42
0000UTC 21.08.2017 132 18.8N 49.2W 1003 44
1200UTC 21.08.2017 144 19.9N 51.8W 1001 46

[Siker]

I believe this is for 92L.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 15.6N 36.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2017 96 15.8N 38.5W 1008 36
0000UTC 20.08.2017 108 17.2N 42.5W 1007 38
1200UTC 20.08.2017 120 18.1N 46.1W 1005 42
0000UTC 21.08.2017 132 18.8N 49.2W 1003 44
1200UTC 21.08.2017 144 19.9N 51.8W 1001 46

That's the wave over Africa again .

This is 92L:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 20.3N 60.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 120 20.7N 62.1W 1010 32
0000UTC 21.08.2017 132 21.7N 64.8W 1010 34
1200UTC 21.08.2017 144 22.3N 68.0W 1009 35

[South Texas Storms]

12z Canadian looks like it brings this system to southeast Florida as a 993mb system next Thursday.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian looks like it brings this system to southeast Florida as a 993mb system next Thursday.

Here is a good look at the Canadian




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[floridasun78]

all talk that season was dead look we see two land fall system on usa if models got it right

[Blown Away]

Oh, if I only had a dollar every time the Canadian blasted SFL...

[caneseddy]

12z Canadian looks like it brings this system to southeast Florida as a 993mb system next Thursday.

Here is a good look at the Canadian

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And look at the date it's landfalls....August 24...

[Fishing]

12z Canadian looks like it brings this system to southeast Florida as a 993mb system next Thursday.

Here is a good look at the Canadian

I'm sorry to go off topic but can you please tell me how to locate Storm2K on Tapatalk? I had it last year and this year I cannot find it in the app.? Thx in advance!

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