ATL: MARIA - Models

[1900hurricane]

Models and Guidance go here.

[FLpanhandle91]

06z GFS carries this into the northern Caribbean through hour 180. We all know it's a crap shoot beyond that, but it does have it crossing Haiti toward an eventual East coast landfall. Steering current very weak in the Atlantic right now. GFS develops a trough behind Jose in the Bahamas that future Lee gets pulled toward.

[jlauderdal]

looking forward to the next run of the NAM to give us guidance on this thing....

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS coming in stronger through 60 hours so far.

[Alyono]

this is cruel

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.5N 44.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2017 36 11.5N 44.3W 1010 29
1200UTC 16.09.2017 48 12.4N 48.8W 1004 37
0000UTC 17.09.2017 60 13.3N 51.8W 1000 38
1200UTC 17.09.2017 72 14.2N 54.1W 998 43
0000UTC 18.09.2017 84 15.0N 55.5W 993 50
1200UTC 18.09.2017 96 15.8N 56.5W 988 59
0000UTC 19.09.2017 108 16.6N 57.5W 983 61
1200UTC 19.09.2017 120 17.3N 58.8W 981 61
0000UTC 20.09.2017 132 17.9N 60.2W 977 66
1200UTC 20.09.2017 144 18.5N 61.6W 973 67

[WeatherEmperor]

looking forward to the next run of the NAM to give us guidance on this thing....

Roland Steadham would be very disappointed in you for even mentioning the words "NAM" for tropical guidance.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[AutoPenalti]

this is cruel

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.5N 44.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2017 36 11.5N 44.3W 1010 29
1200UTC 16.09.2017 48 12.4N 48.8W 1004 37
0000UTC 17.09.2017 60 13.3N 51.8W 1000 38
1200UTC 17.09.2017 72 14.2N 54.1W 998 43
0000UTC 18.09.2017 84 15.0N 55.5W 993 50
1200UTC 18.09.2017 96 15.8N 56.5W 988 59
0000UTC 19.09.2017 108 16.6N 57.5W 983 61
1200UTC 19.09.2017 120 17.3N 58.8W 981 61
0000UTC 20.09.2017 132 17.9N 60.2W 977 66
1200UTC 20.09.2017 144 18.5N 61.6W 973 67

North of the islands...

[marionstorm]

Please no I can't handle another Duke Energy hurricane. Civilization will collapse in Florida if this comes anywhere near us.

[gatorcane]

Hispaniola the target on the last several GFS runs. Problem is GFS is trending stronger with this:

[AutoPenalti]

Hispaniola the target on the last several GFS runs. Problem is GFS is trending stronger with this:

I think that may very well be another close call, a wobble can be the difference between a hit on islands of a hit on the shredder.

[USTropics]

UKMET plots:

[USTropics]

Extremely skeptical long range, but 12z GFS has Jose hanging around in the subtropical Atlantic with ridging extending off the Carolinas:

[northjaxpro]

Can we do away with the "shredder"reference? I am a bit more sensitive I guess after what what we have all been through most recently with Irma, and Harvey a few weeks ago prior.

We know what Hispaniola's mountains can do to disrupt cyclones. But, that "shredder" you refer to has thousands and thousands of people who live on it who would be in harms way of another tropical cyclone.

I am not meaning to be difficult at all. I am just asking to be sensitive to the situation. We don't need "shredder" referenced please. You can make your points without the unnecessary play on words please!!

[xironman]

Once again way off, but this is an uh-oh map with the negative trough

[jlauderdal]

looking forward to the next run of the NAM to give us guidance on this thing....

Roland Steadham would be very disappointed in you for even mentioning the words "NAM" for tropical guidance.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

I miss the days of roland, noe and kamal. Roland was back on 10 last year for a few months, kamal ran into the law

[SEASON_CANCELED]

models no good this far out. will know if conus threat middle of next week

[gatorcane]

MUCH weaker on the Euro out through 48 hours. Weaker would mean more west in this case.

[gatorcane]

As a result of showing a weaker system (delayed development), the EC has shifted way south compared to the 00Z run but is still NE of the latest GFS. 72 hour graphic below.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro is also faster through 72hrs. and in line with the GFS more so now.

[USTropics]

The 00z ECMWF and GFS have development further west along the wave axis due to a stronger vort signature from 97L, I highlighted this in the graphic below: