ATL: GORDON - Models

[artist]

[Steve]

Gfs appears to hit SELA
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=24

CMC hits a bit farther south in SELA than GFs. Boothville first then farther into Plaquemines Parish.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=24

RGEM into southeast LA as well. Not expected with everything else settling into the MS Gulf Coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=24

I think these might be too far west - ?

[Stormcenter]

[

I think it will come inland around Bay St Louis. IMO

quote="Steve"]Gfs appears to hit SELA
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=24

CMC hits a bit farther south in SELA than GFs. Boothville first then farther into Plaquemines Parish.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=24

RGEM into southeast LA as well. Not expected with everything else settling into the MS Gulf Coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=24

I think these might be too far west - ?[/quote]

[Blinhart]

So looking at that, if it moves 12 to 24 hours slower, it will turn West a lot further South.

[Steve]

Could be Bay St Louis. That’s the compromise, and would be similar to prior systems that hit south Florida then the NC Gulf. As for the last 3 models I posted, total accumulated rain isn’t that bad on the GFS or the RGEM. Gfs puts a swath of 3/3.5 across Jackson Co. RGEM has a 6” swath across all of Mobile Co. But the CMC puts 8-10” across most of the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain in an arc from Lacombe over toward Madisonville. CMC is probably too far south, but it was notable from the model.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0400&fh=48

[PTPatrick]

not that anybody was watching but the morning model runs of HWRF and HMON are back to showing at least a hurricane at landfall...one showing approaching 80 knot. most of the models really had gone to not thinking it would be much last night so perhaps they are picking up favorable conditions for the rest of the day?
seems like Harrison County i the bullseye...Jackson/Mobile county appears to take the brunt with the weather displaced east

[tolakram]

HWRF stronger again

[NDG]

Close up view of the 12z early models, they have really been concentrating & persistent over Harrison County since last night, but notice that the extrap heading is still pointing towards SE LA, perhaps that more NW turn has been per the latest recon fix.

[SconnieCane]

Close up view of the 12z early models, they have really been concentrating & persistent over Harrison County since last night, but notice that the extrap heading is still pointing towards SE LA, perhaps that more NW turn has been per the latest recon fix.

Goodness, that is a bad heading for surge into New Orleans if this were a strong hurricane, especially the TABS and CMC2.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS back to showing strengthening just before landfall. This is not high rez so pressure shown is a little higher than predicted surface pressure.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro shows the north jog.