WPAC: 98W - Tropical Depression

[mrbagyo]

98W INVEST 180903 0600 14.0N 137.0E WPAC 15 0

This is the one that is enhancing the southwesterly windflow in the Philippines.

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Circulation is totally exposed.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 136.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY
451 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. A PARTIAL 042109Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS POCKETS
OF FLARING CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MARGINAL AND
THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL MODELS SHOW
98W TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WITH
WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.3N 133.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY
353 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A PARTIAL 051004Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC AND A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS LESSENED (5 TO 10 KNOTS), ALLOWING THE
LLCC TO BEGIN TO TUCK UNDER THE CONVECTION. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
GOOD BUT THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW 98W TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MINOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

JTWC gives this a 1.5 dvorak...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3N
133.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 129.5E, APPROXIMATELY 308. NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. A PARTIAL 051004Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC
AND A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
HAS LESSENED (5 TO 10 KNOTS), ALLOWING THE LLCC TO BEGIN TO TUCK
UNDER THE CONVECTION. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS GOOD BUT THERE IS NO
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 98W
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MINOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 060230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.1N 129.1E TO 26.0N 124.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.6N 128.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.4N 129.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY
287 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 2236Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) VALUES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND A STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE VERY WARM AT 30 TO 32
CELCIUS. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTHWEST WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 060230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070230Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 060308

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (S OF OKINAWA)

B. 06/0230Z

C. 21.53N

D. 128.82E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AGREES WITH DT AND PT YIELDS A 2.0.
DBO 2.0

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/2144Z 21.32N 129.17E SSMS
05/2235Z 21.53N 128.93E SSMS


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 060538
TCSWNP
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 06/0230Z

C. 21.3N

D. 128.8E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR DT, MET , PT AND FINAL T NUMBER.THIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY
CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES, WITH THE CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 75NM
FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST. DT IS 1.5. MET AND PT ARE 1.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[1900hurricane]

JMA is looking to name the TD in 24 hours or so.

TD
Issued at 04:30 UTC, 6 September 2018

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 6 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N21°20' (21.3°)
E129°00' (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 6 September>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°00' (23.0°)
E126°35' (126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 7 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°30' (25.5°)
E125°10' (125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[1900hurricane]

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 060921

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (S OF OKINAWA)

B. 06/0900Z

C. 22.63N

D. 128.21E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN TOO WEAK YIELDS 0.0 DT.
MET/PT 1.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.6N 128.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY
290 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 052236Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) VALUES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND A STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE VERY WARM AT 30 TO 32
CELSIUS. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[1900hurricane]

I'm kinda doubting this will actually get a name despite the JMA forecast.

[1900hurricane]

I'm kinda doubting this will actually get a name despite the JMA forecast.

Sure enough.

TD
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 6 September 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 6 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N24°00' (24.0°)
E127°00' (127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 070008

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (SW OF OKINAWA)

B. 06/2340Z

C. 24.22N

D. 126.76E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9N 128.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY
165 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061920Z 91GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
HIGH.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 070230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060221Z SEP 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 060230)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 060230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.6E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED AWAY TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A 070302Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSITIONING TO A WAVE-LIKE FEATURE WITH A SMALL SWATH
OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. A 2222Z F-17
37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A REDUCTION IN BANDING AND
FURTHER ELONGATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED OUTFLOW WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN VERY WARM
AT 28 TO 30 CELSIUS. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWEST WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.2N 126.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY
130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070125 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 070047Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH
PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HIGH VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT ARE NOT SHOWING ANY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.