90S INVEST 180914 1200 9.6S 73.5E SHEM 30 1000
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
2.A POSITION 2018/09/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5 S / 73.5 E
(NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/09/15 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 24H: 2018/09/15 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36H: 2018/09/16 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2018/09/16 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2018/09/17 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/09/17 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/09/18 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=2.0
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED AND WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER BUT FAILED TO MAINTAIN. THE CENTER ALTHOUGH LESS VISIBLE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY, REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON THE LAST MW IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED IN AGREEMENT WITH AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12 UTC.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AND THIS FORWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINU UNTIL THE WEEK-END AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE ODF THE STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IS MIXED REGARDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT: FOR THE NEGATIVE ASPECTS, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP (FROM CIMSS) CLEARLY SHOW DRY MID LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE OUTER CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS, IMPEDING THE HUMIDITY CONVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AS SEEN ON THE WINDFIELD, IS POOR EQUATORWARD AND GOOD ON THE TRADEWINDS SIDE. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE SYSTEM LIES NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN IS CURRENTLY SUFFICIENT, BUT FALLS RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 10S.
MORE FAVORABLE FACTORS EXIST WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT (EQUATORIAL WAVES ACTIVITY .. AND SPECIFICALLY THE ARRIVAL OF A KELVIN WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS). AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCED CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN A POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH THE JOST.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITHIN THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS SUGGESTED. HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXCELLENT INITIAL DEFINITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, ONE CAN NOT RULED OUT SOME MORE INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING THAT TIME.
MONDAY AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN A MORE MID-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT, WITH TILL SOME SHEAR AND MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS (LITTLE OR NO OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN SOUTH OF 12S). GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY THAT TIME WITH A REMNANT LOW THAT SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. NEXT ADVISORY TOMORROW AT 06 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
2.A POSITION 2018/09/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5 S / 73.5 E
(NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/09/15 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 24H: 2018/09/15 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36H: 2018/09/16 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2018/09/16 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2018/09/17 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/09/17 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/09/18 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=2.0
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED AND WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER BUT FAILED TO MAINTAIN. THE CENTER ALTHOUGH LESS VISIBLE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY, REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON THE LAST MW IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED IN AGREEMENT WITH AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12 UTC.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AND THIS FORWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINU UNTIL THE WEEK-END AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE ODF THE STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IS MIXED REGARDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT: FOR THE NEGATIVE ASPECTS, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP (FROM CIMSS) CLEARLY SHOW DRY MID LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE OUTER CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS, IMPEDING THE HUMIDITY CONVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AS SEEN ON THE WINDFIELD, IS POOR EQUATORWARD AND GOOD ON THE TRADEWINDS SIDE. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE SYSTEM LIES NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN IS CURRENTLY SUFFICIENT, BUT FALLS RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 10S.
MORE FAVORABLE FACTORS EXIST WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT (EQUATORIAL WAVES ACTIVITY .. AND SPECIFICALLY THE ARRIVAL OF A KELVIN WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS). AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCED CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN A POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH THE JOST.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITHIN THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS SUGGESTED. HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXCELLENT INITIAL DEFINITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, ONE CAN NOT RULED OUT SOME MORE INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING THAT TIME.
MONDAY AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN A MORE MID-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT, WITH TILL SOME SHEAR AND MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS (LITTLE OR NO OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN SOUTH OF 12S). GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY THAT TIME WITH A REMNANT LOW THAT SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. NEXT ADVISORY TOMORROW AT 06 UTC.
