BoB: Daye - Depression

[doomhaMwx]

97B INVEST 180917 0000 15.0N 86.6E IO 15 1010

[Joe_1]

https://imgur.com/sLYw4rF
Big monsoonal gyre two vorts atm, the vort @NNE appears to be the one the ec likes.

[Joe_1]

https://imgur.com/TdF7dEg


https://imgur.com/v6EagJ9

Dont have ascat pass. This looking like its formed.

[doomhaMwx]

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 90.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 89.7E, APPROXIMATELY 366
NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 191112Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW. A
RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD REGION OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29
CELSIUS) IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A SHORT LIVED TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC has renumbered.

04B INVEST 180920 1200 18.1N 86.3E IO 35 995

[1900hurricane]

IMD also calling this a Deep Depression.

Sub: Deep Depression over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert
for south Odisha - north Andhra Pradesh coasts (Orange Message)
The deep depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards in past
six hours with a speed about 23 kmph. It lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 20th September,
2018 over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 18.4
0N and longitude 85.8
0E,
about 170 km east of Kalingapatnam (Coastal Andhra Pradesh) and about 130 km southeast of
Gopalpur (Odisha).
It is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 06 hours. It is very likely to move
west-northwestwards and cross south Odisha - north Andhra Pradesh coasts between
Kalingapatnam & Puri (Odisha), close to Gopalpur around mid-night of today, the 20th September as
a cyclonic storm with wind speed of 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
Date/Time(IST) Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0
E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
20.09.18/1730 18.4/85.8 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression
20.09.18/2330 19.2/84.5 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
21.09.18/0530 19.9/82.9 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression
21.09.18/1130 20.5/81.4 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
21.09.18/1730 21.1/80.1 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
22.09.18/0530 22.4/77.7 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
22.09.18/1730 23.7/75.3 30-40 gusting to 50 Depression

[TorSkk]

Now upgraded to Cyclonic Storm Daye, third named storm of the season

Sub: Cyclone “DAYE” over northwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone warning for south Odisha -
north Andhra Pradesh coasts (Red Message)
The deep depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards during past six
hours with a speed about 20 kmph, intensified into a cyclonic storm “DAYE” and lay centred at 2030
hrs IST of today, the 20th September, 2018 over northwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 18.8
0N and
longitude 85.6
0E, about 90 km southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and about 160 km northeast of
Kalingapatnam (Coastal Andhra Pradesh).
It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and cross south Odisha - north Andhra
Pradesh coasts between Kalingapatnam & Puri (Odisha), close to Gopalpur around mid-night of
today, the 20th September as a cyclonic storm with wind speed of 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
Date/Time(IST) Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0
E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
20.09.18/2030 18.8/85.6 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
20.09.18/2330 19.2/84.5 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
21.09.18/0530 19.9/82.9 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression
21.09.18/1130 20.5/81.4 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
21.09.18/1730 21.1/80.1 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
22.09.18/0530 22.4/77.7 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
22.09.18/1730 23.7/75.3 30-40 gusting to 50 Depression

[doomhaMwx]

Weakening inland...

Sub: Deep depression over Interior Odisha & adjoining Chhattisgarh
Deep Depression over south Odisha & neighbourhood moved further west-northwestwards
during past six hours and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 21st September, 2018 over Interior
Odisha & adjoining Chhattisgarh near latitude 20.5N and longitude 82.5E, about 120 km eastsoutheast
of Raipur (Chhattisgarh) and about 80 km west of Titlagarh (Odisha). It is very likely to
continue to move west-northwestwards and weaken gradually into a Depression during next 12
hours.

[badkhan]

The storm seems to be following similar path to Cyclone Yemyin. Any chance of it crossing the landmass and regenerating in Arabian sea?

[doomhaMwx]

The storm seems to be following similar path to Cyclone Yemyin. Any chance of it crossing the landmass and regenerating in Arabian sea?

Not expected to emerge into the Arabian Sea.