WPAC: TRAMI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV

Looks like James is chasing this.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/1045629761693847552

[mrbagyo]

Mega Eye

[NotoSans]

Results for today’s recon.

[FireRat]

100 mile eye, wow! Now that's a Cyclops!

[galaxy401]

Wow that eye is almost the size of the island of Taiwan!

[1900hurricane]

Okinawa might go right through the center of the eye.

[dexterlabio]

Aside from Hurricane Wilma footage, I have yet to see a storm chaser video that captures the real calm (or perhaps sunny) weather inside the eye. Storm chasers like Josh and James usually capture the inner eyewall, thus we see the violent winds but no calm eye. We might get some interesting view this time with Trami's enormous eye centered on Okinawa.

[mrbagyo]

954 hpa (2mps) in Kumejima inside the eye
Highest gust I've found so far is 202 kph from Itokasu (SE of Naha)

[euro6208]

[NotoSans]

Surface observations very consistent with aircraft observations over the past two days as well.

[doomhaMwx]

[doomhaMwx]

Naha observations


https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today ... oupCode=65

[Hayabusa]

28W TRAMI 180929 1800 29.2N 129.5E WPAC 95 950

[Hayabusa]

[ManilaTC]

Aside from Hurricane Wilma footage, I have yet to see a storm chaser video that captures the real calm (or perhaps sunny) weather inside the eye. Storm chasers like Josh and James usually capture the inner eyewall, thus we see the violent winds but no calm eye. We might get some interesting view this time with Trami's enormous eye centered on Okinawa.

James already posted on facebook a pic with the sun behind him inside the eye

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH AN APPROXIMATELY 60 NM RAGGED EYE.
EXTENSIVE FEEDER BANDS TO THE SOUTH ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF
TAKING ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, SUGGESTING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS BEGUN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS REFLECTS AN
APPROXIMATE T4.5 (77 KTS) DVORAK ESTIMATE AVERAGE FROM PGTW, RJTD,
AND KNES. NOTABLE JAPAN OBSERVATIONS AT RJOS AND RJBD HAVE REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF OVER 40 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 70 KTS FROM 300600Z TO
300700Z. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH STRONG (20-30
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) OF 25-26 CELSIUS BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW,
PARTICULARLY TO THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER HONSHU IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, IT
WILL BE BACK OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH VWS,
LAND INTERACTION, AND COOL SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
AS IT COMPLETES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION TO BECOME A STRONG COLD
CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 040
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 34.2N 136.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.2N 136.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 40.4N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 53 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 46.7N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
480 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 138.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CAMP FUJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED, AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM REPORTING STATIONS IN JAPAN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KTS REFLECTS SOME DECAY IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE
CLOUD SIGNATURE IS STARTING TO TAKE ON EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WITH INDICATIONS OF DEVELOPING FRONTS AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TY 28W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN