WPAC: INVEST 96W

[cycloneye]

Location: 13.6°N 151.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 182030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/182030Z-190600ZOCT2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.2N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 591 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.
UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING AREA ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT GRADIENT INDUCED
WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MODELS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW AS IT ROUNDS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.8N 153.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY
667 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191823Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS INDICATE 96W WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SUBTROPICAL
LOW AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

Gone with the wind.